ESPN ranks the potential first time College Football Playoff teams

With the 2022 college football season right around the corner, oddsmakers are putting in the numbers that will see the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State (in whichever order) become the preseason favorites to win the College Football Playoff once again. Together, the three programs have made 13 collective CFP appearances over its eight-year existence.

Last year, Michigan and Cincinnati shook things up with their first-ever appearances. The Bearcats paved the way for non-Power Five programs to earn playoff bids despite their strength of schedule (or lack thereof). With conference realignments at an all-time high over the past two seasons, we may never see that happen again. But if last season proved anything – there’s a better chance now than ever for programs to earn their first bid into the CFP.

Because of that reason, ESPN put together a four-team list on which teams they believe could earn themselves a shot to play for a national championship in 2023.

Texas A&M Aggies | Preseason FPI: 12

Texas A&M has been knocking at the CFP’s door for the past few seasons now, and the Aggies have every tool on their roster to succeed in the SEC West. Fans feel the Alabama win from a season ago was the catalyst for a CFP future, and even if the Crimson Tide come out on top this year, the committee could find themselves impressed with the rest of their schedule to allow them in, but one loss all season is all Jimbo Fisher and company can afford.

ESPN’s FPI says: The Aggies have at least a 50% chance to win every game except for Mississippi State, Alabama and Auburn.

Allstate Playoff Predictor says: The Aggies have a 1.9% chance to make the playoff.

Utah Utes | Preseason FPI: 13

The Utes are the defending Pac-12 champions and are coming off a nail-biting Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. They’ll return 14 starters across the board this season. QB1 Cameron Rising has returned alongside five of his top six wideouts from a year ago, as well as running back Tavion Thomas, who finished 2021 with 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns.

ESPN’s FPI says: Utah has at least a 50% chance to win every game except its season opener against Florida and Nov. 19 at Oregon.

Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Utah has a 6.3% chance to reach the CFP.

USC Trojans | Preseason FPI: 35

The Trojans have been one of the most talked about programs of the offseason. Following Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams‘ near-simultaneous departures form Oklahoma to USC, the Trojans have added pivotal pieces from the transfer portal and remain one of the biggest question marks heading into the new football season.

ESPN’s FPI says: USC has less than a 50% chance to beat both Utah, Notre Dame and UCLA.

Allstate Playoff Predictor says: USC has less than a .1% chance to make the playoff, behind 29 other teams that have at least a 1% chance.

Oklahoma State Cowboys | Preseason FPI: 14

The Cowboys’ chances at a CFP berth are based around their schedule. They have an easier schedule than Texas and Baylor (two other CFP contenders), and with consecutive non-conference games against Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff to start the season off, the Cowboys should be 3-0 heading into their date with Baylor on the road with their fate in their own hands.

ESPN’s FPI says: Oklahoma State is favored in each of its games except against Texas and against Oklahoma.

Allstate Playoff Predictor says: The Cowboys have the 12th-best chance to reach the playoff at four percent.