ESPN ranks Top 24 teams with highest chance to make College Football Playoff after Week 7

Week 7 of the 2025 college football season brought with it no shortage of ranked matchups and exciting moments. In its fallout, ESPN has re-ranked its top 24 teams with the highest percentage to make the College Football Playoff heading into Week 8.

Notably, this model takes into consideration the new College Football Playoff seeding format. This season, the 12-team field will consist of the top-five highest-ranked conference champions as well as seven at-large teams. The top-four highest-ranked teams will receive first-round byes.

With that in mind, ESPN has overhauled its Allstate Playoff Predictor heading into Week 8. Here’s how the list shakes up.

1. Ohio State – 95%

There hasn’t been much debate over who the No. 1 team in the country has been this season. Ever since defeating Texas 14-7 in the season opener, the Buckeyes have won each of their next five matchups by at least three scores.

At 6-0, there’s no sign that Ohio State will be slowing down anytime soon. A quick glance at their schedule shows that they won’t play another ranked team at all during the regular season.

2. Indiana – 93%

If Indiana and Ohio State continue on their same undefeated trajectory, the Big Ten Championship game could determine which team earns the top overall seed in the College Football Playoffs this season. Two years ago, that statement was unheard of for the Hoosiers.

That speaks to the type of program Curt Cignetti has built in Bloomington. After defeating Oregon on the road last Saturday, Indiana has solidified itself as a legitimate national championship contender.

3. Alabama – 83%

Alabama’s 2025 season could have looked very differently after its season-opening loss to Florida State on the road. Since then, they may have the most impressive resume in the country.

In the last three weeks alone, the Crimson Tide has defeated a top-five Georgia team on the road, beat a No. 16 Vanderbilt at home and escaped victorious against a No. 14 Missouri team in Columbia. They’ll play No. 11 Tennessee this weekend.

4. Miami – 81%

Miami is the team to beat in the ACC this season. They have a favorable schedule for the rest of the season, so it’s no surprise the predictor is so high on them.

That’s not to say their resume won’t stack up against the others in the College Football Playoff conversation. Three of their first five opponents were against teams ranked in the AP Top 25.

5. Texas A&M – 79%

Texas A&M is off to its best start in nearly a decade under second-year head coach Mike Elko. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders this season, and the defense has caught up since beginning SEC play.

At 6-0, the Aggies haven’t played a ranked team since their win at Notre Dame during the early non-conference slate. That will continue when they play Arkansas this coming week. That chances next week, however, when Texas A&M heads to Baton Rouge to take on LSU during Week 9.

6. Georgia – 72%

Georgia can move up this list if they hold strong between the hedges against a top-five ranked Ole Miss team this weekend. They’ve won their last two games since being upset at home against Alabama.

The Bulldogs most recently defeated Auburn 20-10 during Week 7 in a game filled with controversial moments and high emotions. It’ll be interesting to see if that’ll bleed over into Saturday’s showdown against the Rebels.

7. Texas Tech – 71%

Texas Tech investments have paying off so far during the regular season. They’ve quickly moved up the AP Top 25 poll, and are currently looked at as the favorite to win the Big 12.

Featuring one of the most high-powered offenses in the country, the Red Raiders are hard to bet against on any given Saturday. Their matchup against BYU coming up in the next several weeks will answer many questions left about Texas Tech.

8. Oregon – 64%

Oregon took a hit by losing to Indiana at home on Saturday. The loss is good for the Ducks’ first loss in Big Ten action since joining the conference last offseason.

Still, the predictor favors the Ducks, and so does their schedule. As it stands, Oregon will only play one more game against a ranked opponent (No. 20 USC, Nov. 22) for the rest of the regular season.

9. Ole Miss – 60%

The Rebels are currently ranked in the top five and are off to a 6-0 start. However, the Allstate Playoff Predictor still doesn’t believe Ole Miss has done enough to warrant anything greater than a 60% chance after seven weeks.

Ole Miss survived a 24-21 scare against Washington State last week, which drew the Rebels some criticism. They’re back against Georgia this weekend on the road, which could help improve their percentage this time next week.

10. Memphis – 42%

Per ESPN’s model, Memphis has the best chance of any Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoff. That’s 12% more than any other team (see below).

The debate between Memphis and USF will be decided by the end of the month when the two teams meet on Oct. 25. Still, the Tigers are currently 6-0 with blowout wins in almost every matchup. The exception was a 32-31 win over Arkansas at home.

11. BYU – 37%
12. Texas – 34%
13. LSU – 32%
14. South Florida – 30%
15. USC – 30%
16. Tennessee – 28%
17. Vanderbilt – 27%
18. Notre Dame – 24%
19. Oklahoma – 24%
20. Utah – 23%
21. Missouri – 21%
22. Georgia Tech – 18%
23. Washington – 18%
24. Illinois – 16%