ESPN ranks Top 30 college football head coaches vs. expectations

Realistically, not every coach in the country has a chance to win the national championship every season. However, every coach has the opportunity to outperform expectations. On Tuesday, ESPN ranked the Top 30 active FBS coaches based on how they’ve performed compared to their respective program’s expectations.

Admittedly, this criteria can be confusing, so let’s break it down a bit more. The 30 coaches included in these rankings are required to have coached for at least four years. ESPN’s Bill Connelly further prefaced his rankings by explaining how he rated coaches’ performances relative to their expectations.

“For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years,” Connelly wrote. “… If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating.”

This system allows fans to examine how a coach’s success at a Group of Five school might compare to someone like Georgia’s Kirby Smart. With so many great coaches to discuss, let’s dive into the rankings.

1. Ryan Day, Ohio State

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 30.4 | Coach Rating: 15.8
According to Connelly’s system, Ohio State’s Ryan Day is the best coach in college football. In fairness, he has a strong argument for the title after guiding the Buckeyes to their first national title since 2014 last season.

Despite being at the helm of one of the most historic programs in college football, Day has regularly outperformed expectations. He’s never lost more than two games in a season at Ohio State and has led the program to two Big Ten titles and a national championship.

2. Josh Heupel, Tennessee

Avg. vs. Baseline: 13.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 18.1 | Coach Rating: 15.1
Josh Heupel isn’t always in the conversation when discussing the best coaches in college football, but analytics indicate he should be. After Jeremy Pruitt and the Volunteers went 0-7 in 2020, Heupel had a tall task in front of him when he took over in 2021.

Heupel exceeded expectations, leading Tennessee to a 7-6 season in his debut campaign. Since then, Heupel’s kept his foot on the gas. Last season, he led Tennessee to a 10-3 overall record and its first College Football Playoff appearance.

3. Kirby Smart, Georgia

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 27.0 | Coach Rating: 14.4
There are few names in college football more synonymous with success than Kirby Smart. After serving under Nick Saban at Alabama, Smart took a chance by accepting the Georgia head coaching job. That chance has paid off in dividends.

Smart boasts a 105-19 overall record in his nine seasons at Georgia. Under his leadership, the Bulldogs won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022, and are regularly in the race for the college football crown.

4. James Franklin, Penn State

Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.3 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 18.1 | Coach Rating: 11.6
James Franklin might not have some of the accolades as the other coaches on this list, but he’s been the standard for consistency in the Big Ten for the better part of a decade. In 12 seasons behind the steering wheel at Penn State, Franklin has only had one losing season.

In contrast, he’s amassed five campaigns with 11 wins or more. More impressively, Franklin only seems to be picking up steam. He had arguably his best year at Penn State yet last season, leading the Nittany Lions to their first appearance in the CFP, where they won two games and reached the playoff semifinals.

5. Dabo Swinney, Clemson

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 19.0 | Coach Rating: 11.2
For several years, Dabo Swinney’s greatness could only be rivaled by Nick Saban. From 2015-19, Clemson reached five national championship games and won two of them.

Swinney was the sole obstacle in Alabama’s path. In 17 seasons under Swinney, Clemson has never posted a losing record. In fact, the program’s only had one season with fewer than double-digit wins since 2011. In the ever-changing college football landscape, Swinney does things his way, and he does them well.

6. Dan Mullen, UNLV

Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 15.9 | Coach Rating: 10.7
No, that isn’t a typo. Due to Dan Mullen’s disappointing 5-6 finish in his final season at Florida, people forget just how much success he’s had in his career. In 2009, Mullen took over at Mississippi State, which had historically been a non-factor in football.

Mullen quickly flipped that narrative on its head, taking the school to eight consecutive bowl games. Mullen’s best year at MSU was in 2014 when he coached QB Dak Prescott and boosted the school to its first No. 1 national ranking in program history. From there, Mullen coached at Florida for four years. Unlike at MSU, expectations were high in Gainesville. Alas, Mullen delivered early, leading Florida to 21 wins in his first two seasons with the program.

7. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss

Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 13.0 | Coach Rating: 9.5
Lane Kiffin is more than an entertaining poster on social media. Kiffin has been a winner at every turn of his career, with head coaching stops at Tennessee, USC, FAU and Ole Miss.

Kiffin’s current tenure at Ole Miss has been his magnum opus. The Rebels have posted double-digit wins in three of their last four campaigns and are almost always one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Kiffin will look to make his first CFP appearance this season and cement his place among the Mt. Rushmore of college football coaches.

8. Brian Kelly, LSU

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 14.4 | Coach Rating: 9.3
Brian Kelly hasn’t exactly had the soaring success that many LSU fans hoped for when he first joined the program. Yet, it’s difficult to complain about a coach who’s engineered two 10-win seasons and has a jaw-dropping résumé to suggest more success is in the future.

Early in his career, Kelly guided Grand Valley State to consecutive NCAA Division II Football Championships in 2002 and 2003. A decade later, Kelly’s 2012 Notre Dame squad reached the BCS National Championship Game. Kelly’s also succeeded in the CFP era, leading his 2018 and 2020 Fighting Irish teams to the playoffs.

9. Jeff Traylor, UTSA

Avg. vs. Baseline: 13.5 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 1.5 | Coach Rating: 8.7
UTSA’s football program wasn’t created until 2011. In its first nine seasons, UTSA had two seasons with seven or more wins. In Jeff Traylor’s five seasons at the helm, the Roadrunners have never had fewer than seven wins in a season, and more often post double-digit victory campaigns.

More impressively, Traylor is facing more difficult competition than his predecessors. Ahead of the 2023 campaign, UTSA joined the American Athletic Conference. Yet, Traylor hasn’t allowed the move to slow him down, with the Roadrunner amassing a combined 11-5 conference record in the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

10. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 13.8 | Coach Rating: 8.3
Mike Gundy has been Oklahoma State’s headman since 2005, three years earlier than Swinney took over at Clemson. His coaching journey has been nothing short of meteoric.

By his sixth season with the Cowboys, Gundy was taking the team to Big 12 championships. In the mid-2010s, 10-win seasons were almost expected. While Gundy and Oklahoma State had a setback year last season, history suggests the coach won’t stay down on the canvas for long.

11. Barry Odom, Purdue
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 8.8 | Coach Rating: 7.8
12. Billy Napier, Florida
Avg. vs. Baseline: 8.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.8 | Coach Rating: 7.6
13. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 11.7 | Coach Rating: 7.5
14. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.5 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 11.9 | Coach Rating: 7.4
15. Jeff Brohm, Louisville
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.8 | Coach Rating: 7.3
16. Ryan Silverfield, Memphis
Avg. vs. Baseline: 8.8 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 4.5 | Coach Rating: 7.1
17. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
Avg. vs. Baseline: 2.8 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 13.1 | Coach Rating: 7.0
18. Bret Bielema, Illinois
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 11.2 | Coach Rating: 6.9
19. Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.7 | Coach Rating: 6.9
20. Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.1 | Coach Rating: 6.4
21. Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.8 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 4.1 | Coach Rating: 6.3
22. Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina
Avg. vs. Baseline: 10.3 | Avg. SP+ Rating: -0.3 | Coach Rating: 6.1
23. Mark Stoops, Kentucky
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 8.1 | Coach Rating: 6.0
24. Bronco Mendenhall, Utah State
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.9 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 7.0 | Coach Rating: 5.7
25. Willie Fritz, Houston
Avg. vs. Baseline: 10.4 | Avg. SP+ Rating: -1.3 | Coach Rating: 5.7
26. Lincoln Riley, USC
Avg. vs. Baseline: -2.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 18.2 | Coach Rating: 5.6
27. Chris Klieman, Kansas State
Avg. vs. Baseline: -0.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 12.2 | Coach Rating: 4.8
28. Dave Doeren, NC State
Avg. vs. Baseline: 3.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.3 | Coach Rating: 4.7
29. Steve Sarkisian, Texas
Avg. vs. Baseline: -0.4 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 12.4 | Coach Rating: 4.7
30. Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 2.4 | Coach Rating: 4.7