ESPN ranks Top 30 teams best positioned to make 12-team College Football Playoff

ESPN ranked the Top 30 team that are best positioned to make the 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024.

Utilizing ESPN’s FPI percentages in regards to chances to make the CFP and chance to win the title, the teams are measured accordingly. There’s also a “toughest test” en route to a run at the playoffs.

Below are the 30 teams that are best positioned to make this year’s 12-team College Football Playoff. 

1. Georgia

Chance to make playoff: 79.1%
Chance to win title: 21%
Toughest Test: Oct. 19 at Texas

The Bulldogs are the favorites once again, led by Heisman contender, QB Carson Beck. Kirby Smart looks for the third title in four years and they’re poised to do so. It helps that the SEC schedule is loaded and the team has loads of respect on paper before a down is even played. Going to Austin to play the Longhorns is must-see TV.

2. Oregon

Chance to make playoff: 76%
Chance to win title: 12.8%
Toughest Test: Oct. 12 vs. Ohio State

Hoo boy, get ready for the Oregon Ducks this year. After falling short of the Pac-12 title last year, Dan Lanning’s crew are the Big Ten favorites, per this metric at least. Dillon Gabriel takes over at QB and if the Ducks beat Ohio State in October, they’ll have the inside track, even if there’s a conference title game rematch.

3. Texas

Chance to make playoff: 67.8%
Chance to win title: 11.4%
Toughest Test: Oct. 19 vs. Georgia

Welcome to the SEC Longhorn fans! It doesn’t get any easier after winning the Big 12 and falling short in the College Football Playoff semis. But, Steve Sarkisian has more depth with an elite roster and a stable quarterback situation. Still, hosting Georgia could be the ultimate litmus test when it’s all said and done.

4. Ohio State

Chance to make playoff: 67.2%
Chance to win title: 10.5%
Toughest Test: Oct. 12 at Oregon

This is the year for the Buckeyes, there are no ifs ands or buts about it. Ryan Day brought in Chip Kelly as the new OC, Ohio State loaded up with transfers Quinshon Judkins, Will Howard and Caleb Downs, this is it. Like with Oregon, if the Buckeyes beat the Ducks, they’ll have the inside track in what looks like a national title or bust type of season. Oh yeah, go and beat Michigan too.

5. Penn State

Chance to make playoff: 59.1%
Chance to win title: 6.6%
Toughest Test: Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State

The Nittany Lions are also set up for major success in the Big Ten this year. With the expanded playoff, James Franklin and crew could finally make it to the bracket. This looks more like an at-large team, but if they beat Ohio State, Penn State might be playing for its second Big Ten title under Franklin.

6. Notre Dame

Chance to make playoff: 59.1%
Chance to win title: 4.8%
Toughest Test: Aug. 31 at Texas A&M

That’s right, Year 3 of Marcus Freeman could yield the best results for the Fighting Irish. Heck, ESPN’s FPI favors Notre Dame in every single game on the schedule. A 12-0 Notre Dame team would only be the No. 5 seed due to no conference affiliation but definitely a fascinating team. It starts out with a bang when they go to College Station to take on the Aggies.

7. Alabama

Chance to make playoff: 57.2%
Chance to win title: 8.5%
Toughest Test: Sept. 28 vs. Georgia

From being arguably a play or two away from the CFP finals last season to a new era of Alabama football, it’s been quite the seven months huh? The Crimson Tide bring a lot back and a fresh set of eyes in new coach Kalen DeBoer. Led by Heisman contender Jalen Milroe, Alabama should be in the thick of the title conversation. Just get ready for an SEC title-type game against Georgia in … September?!

8. Missouri

Chance to make playoff: 37.3%
Chance to win title: 2.2%
Toughest Test: Oct. 26 at Alabama

Missouri proved it was legit last season by winning the Cotton Bowl over Ohio State. Now, there’s an opportunity for Eli Drinkwitz and company to run it back and get an at-large bid. Or heck, upset the apple cart and win the SEC. Brady Cook and Luther Burden are a deadly combo and they’ll have to be at their best going to Tuscaloosa in late October.

9. Tennessee

Chance to make playoff: 36.9%
Chance to win title: 2.7%
Toughest Test: Nov. 16 at Georgia

The Volunteers actually have a slightly better chance to win it all than Mizzou, but a slightly lesser chance to make the CFP. If QB Nico Iamaleava is the real deal, it could be bad news for the rest of the SEC. Ideally, everyone should circle their calendars for Tennessee at Georgia in mid-November which could have ripple effects on the bracket. Could the two rematch in the SEC Championship? Is it a title eliminator? Boy that’s a good one.

10. Oklahoma

Chance to make playoff: 36.6%
Chance to win title: 2.8%
Toughest Test: Oct. 12 vs. Texas

Oklahoma might not be getting as much buzz as ESPN analytics think the Sooners should get. Brent Venables goes into Year 3 with, potentially, an elite defense. Now, can the offense and new quarterback Jackson Arnold keep up? Red River is the de facto biggest game on the schedule but Texas is ahead right now, making it the toughest test to get to the CFP. But if Oklahoma gets hot down the stretch, we could see a playoff team in Norman.

Rest of teams with best chance to make College Football Playoff

11. Florida State
Chance to make playoff: 35.9%
Chance to win title: 2.5%

12. Michigan
Chance to make playoff: 28.5%
Chance to win title: 1.7%

13. Clemson
Chance to make playoff: 26.9%
Chance to win title: 1.4%

14. LSU
Chance to make playoff: 25.3%
Chance to win title: 1.3%

15. Kansas
Chance to make playoff: 24%
Chance to win title: 0.9%

16. Kansas State
Chance to make playoff: 21.4%
Chance to win title: 0.7%

17. Texas A&M
Chance to make playoff: 21%
Chance to win title: 1%

18. Ole Miss
Chance to make playoff: 20.7%
Chance to win title: 0.8%

19. Louisville
Chance to make playoff: 18.3%
Chance to win title: 0.6%

20. Miami
Chance to make playoff: 18.2%
Chance to win title: 0.6%

21. SMU
Chance to make playoff: 16.6%
Chance to win title: 0.5%

22. Boise State
Chance to make playoff: 16.4%
Chance to win title: 0.1%

23. Arizona
Chance to make playoff: 16%
Chance to win title: 0.3%

24. UTSA
Chance to make playoff: 15.6%
Chance to win title: 0.1%

25. NC State
Chance to make playoff: 13.9%
Chance to win title: 0.3%

26. Auburn
Chance to make playoff: 13.5%
Chance to win title: 0.4%

27. USC
Chance to make playoff: 13.4%
Chance to win title: 0.3%

28. Oklahoma State
Chance to make playoff: 12.6%
Chance to win title: 0.4%

29. Utah
Chance to make playoff: 12.5%
Chance to win title: 0.2%

30. Texas Tech
Chance to make playoff: 11.5%
Chance to win title: 0.3%

Now that the projections are in, can we just get to football? There’s no doubt the 2024 season could bring the most exciting College Football Playoff race we’ve ever seen!