ESPN releases its 2022 preseason FPI rankings with a new No. 1

ESPN has revealed its updated Football Power Index (FPI) rankings following an early offseason full of game-changing roster moves, coaching moves and NFL declarations. ESPN’s FPI tool measures a team’s true strength. The ultimate goal of FPI is to correctly predict games and season outcomes based on returning players, previous performances, recruiting rankings and head coach. The April update of the rankings includes a total shakeup of the top 10 and a new No. 1.

Based on these factors, the Alabama Crimson Tide currently ranks first and has the highest chance to win the national championship at 30.1% behind returning Heisman winner Bryce Young. After losing the largest group of talent yet, defending national title winner Georgia is No. 3 behind Ohio State’s CJ Stroud-led squad.

Clemson had a bumpier year in 2021 but the FPI gives the Tigers a 15% chance to win out in the regular season. Notre Dame has a tone-setting season opener versus Ohio State but is starting out strong under new head coach Marcus Freeman.

The Texas Longhorns are projected to make the biggest one-year turnaround under Steve Sarkisian. After a 3-6 conference finish, FPI suggests the Longhorns, now equipped with a new former five-star quarterback, will win nine games with a 41% chance to win the Big 12. LSU is also trending for a bounce-back under Brian Kelly.

These are ESPN’s current FPI rankings ahead of the culmination of the spring practice season.

Updated ESPN FPI rankings

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Clemson Tigers
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6. Texas Longhorns
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Oklahoma Sooners
9. Pittsburgh Panthers
10. Auburn Tigers
11. LSU Tigers
12. Penn State Nittany Lions
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys
14. Texas A&M Aggies
15. Utah Utes
16. Michigan State Spartans
17. Ole Miss Rebels
18. Miami Hurricanes
19. Baylor Bears
20. Kentucky Wildcats
21. Wisconsin Badgers
22. North Carolina Tar Heels
23. Oregon Ducks
24. Mississippi State Bulldogs
25. Florida Gators

Offseason sliders

Between the final whistle of the 2021 season and now, seven teams slid out of their top-25 spots in the ESPN FPI rankings. Expected to have the biggest dropoff after last season are the Cincinnati Bearcats and Iowa State Cyclones. The Bearcats lost soon-to-be first-round cornerback Ahmad Gardner and star quarterback Desmond Ridder – they did, however, keep Luke Fickell in spite of a doozy of a coaching carousel.

NC State, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Purdue and Tennessee also lost some juice with ESPN’s analytical algorithm, but they’re close behind the leaders and each is expected to finish above .500.