ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 9

After another riveting round of college football action over the weekend another top-10 team fell and five ranked teams lost. That has considerably shaken up the bowl projections, with movement as high as the New Year’s Six bowl games.

Oregon scored the most impressive win of the weekend with a shellacking of Utah. Meanwhile, Oklahoma tripped up to lose its first game and cede its stranglehold atop the Big 12.

How did the Oregon and Oklahoma games, as well as dozens of others over the weekend, help shake up this week’s college football bowl projections from ESPN experts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look inside.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

For the first time in a few weeks, the bowl projections for the national title game remained unchanged. Georgia has firmly established itself as the best team in the country, and it looked the part in dismantling Florida 43-20 over the weekend. Michigan, though, has been every bit as dominant against its fairly easy schedule, pounding opponents into submission to reach 8-0 on the season. This is definitely the safe pick for the title game at this point.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Florida State

This matchup has switched around for both Bonagura and Schlabach, as they’ve clearly flipped some positioning between Washington and Florida State. Previously both had Washington penciled in to face Michigan. But after a dominant win over Wake Forest this weekend, Florida State is solidifying its claim as the top ACC team. And it isn’t particularly close right now.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Washington

As noted above, the two ESPN writers flipped around the playoff matchups even though they didn’t actually change the playoff teams themselves. Washington has dropped to the fourth spot in the playoff seeding, getting the honor of taking on Georgia. That would be quite the stylistic clash and a chance for the Pac-12 to prove it can unlock an elite SEC defense. In any case, it would certainly be fun to watch.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Texas

Despite Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas this weekend, neither ESPN writer has changed their picks for the Cotton Bowl this week. Bonagura already had Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, the top Big 12 team missing out on the College Football Playoff. But the bowl projections for Schlabach include Texas in this spot. It’s interesting that despite the change in results this weekend, neither opted to change their picks for the Cotton Bowl.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

There was only one change in this week’s bowl projections for the Peach Bowl, with Schlabach swapping in Notre Dame for Oklahoma thanks to the Sooners’ loss this weekend. On the other hand, Bonagura has Texas getting into the Peach Bowl as the second Big 12 team in the New Year’s Six mix, while he’s got Air Force ranked as the top Group of Five team.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

There were no changes this week on the Orange Bowl projections as both opted to remain with a Louisville vs. Ohio State matchup. This would put Louisville into the Orange Bowl as the top-ranked ACC team not in the playoff, a good bet right now after Louisville dispatched Duke in an impressive 23-0 shutout over the weekend. Meanwhile, Ohio State gets a New Year’s Six bid as a non-playoff Big Ten squad.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Air Force

Similarly, no changes this week to the bowl projections for the Fiesta Bowl. Bonagura is sticking with Oregon vs. Penn State as the matchup, while Schlabach sees Oregon vs. Air Force, the top Group of Five team. Oregon’s big win, though, will likely put it on the cusp of playoff consideration should additional unbeatens fall. The Ducks are going to have a quality resume even with one loss.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: San José State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arizona vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: UCLA vs. UNLV

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: TCU vs. Washington State
Schlabach: TCU vs.Washington State

Monday, Dec. 18
Bahamas Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. Jacksonville State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Troy vs. Navy

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rice vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: UTSA vs. South Alabama

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Rice

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Troy
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Tulane

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Northwestern

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. BYU

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Utah

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Memphis vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Texas State vs. New Mexico State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Kansas

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. SMU
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Florida

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Miami vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Miami vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
(FUN FACT: There were 13 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. USC

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Florida
Schlabach: Duke vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. USC
Schlabach: NC State vs. Arizona

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Tennessee

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss