ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 10

On a weekend in which eight ranked teams lost plenty of postseason projections were thrown into disarray, with prognosticators forced to adjust their picks. All of that makes for an excellent week to dissect some bowl projections.

While there weren’t many higher-ranked teams that lost on Saturday, the plethora of ranked losses did shake up some positions. One highly notable loss was Air Force‘s upset at the hands of Army; most prognosticators had been picking Air Force as a New Year’s Six bowl participant as the highest ranked projected Group of Five champion.

Let’s take a look at how that result and dozens of others impacted the bowl projections from ESPN’s gurus Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura. Here we go.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

Still the projections hold for a Georgia vs. Michigan national title game, no changes from either ESPN writer on that front this week. The two seem on a collision course, though both still have some tricky games to navigate ahead. Georgia will take on a one-loss Ole Miss team this weekend, while Michigan hits the road to face Penn State. Both should be an adequate test for a would-be national title contender to get by.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

While Bonagura left his pick for the Rose Bowl unchanged, with Michigan facing Florida State for the right to advance to the national title game, Schlabach switched his opponents around. Schlabach has replaced Washington as a playoff team with Oregon, despite the Huskies beating the USC Trojans over the weekend. That pits the Wolverines against the Ducks in one semifinal spot, while we’ll get to the other momentarily.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State

Last week Schlabach had Florida State taking on Michigan in the Rose Bowl, just like Bonagura did. But he has since shaken up that projection, moving Oregon into that slot. So Florida State falls to the fourth spot, facing Georgia in the opening semifinal matchup instead. Georgia remains the top overall seed and the favorite to play in the location-favorable matchup in the Super Bowl, though that would obviously be less of an advantage against Florida State than against Washington.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Texas

Following Oklahoma’s loss to Oklahoma State, Bonagura went ahead and dropped the Sooners from his previous bowl projections that had them in the Cotton Bowl. He has replaced them with the Longhorns, which both ESPN writers now agree on. The opponent, though, varies. Bonagura has Ohio State as the a non-playoff team from the Big Ten, while Schlabach has Ole Miss as a non-playoff team from the SEC.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Penn State

Both Bonagura and Schlabach have three teams each from the Big Ten and the SEC reaching the New Year’s Six (including the playoffs), though they’ve disagreed on who goes where. Bonagura has Ole Miss going to the Peach Bowl, taking on the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, which he now projects to be Tulane. Schlabach, on the other hand, has Alabama taking on Penn State in what would be a tremendous matchup of Big Ten and SEC powers.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

The only change this week is that Bonagura now has Alabama in the Orange Bowl, one week after agreeing with Schlabach that it would be Louisville vs. Ohio State. Schlabach has remained steadfast on his bowl projections for the Orange Bowl this week, unfazed by the weekend’s action. Louisville, in this scenario, would be in as the highest-ranked ACC team not in the College Football Playoff.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Tulane

The only change in this section of the bowl projections is from Schlabach, who has replaced both of his picks from a week ago. With Oregon swapping out with Washington in his playoff mix, he’s now included the Huskies here. Moreover, Air Force’s loss to Army also bumped Tulane into the projected designation of highest-ranked Group of Five champion, so he’s got the Green Wave taking on the Huskies in the Fiesta Bowl.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. San José State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Houston vs.Washington State

Monday, Dec. 18
Bahamas Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Texas State vs. San José State

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Troy
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Troy

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. UNLV

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. USC

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Rice
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. UTSA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. West Virginia

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. SMU
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Duke vs. Arizona

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
(FUN FACT: There were 18 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Miami vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Kansas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Utah

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. LSU
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Clemson vs. USC
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Maryland

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Florida
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Auburn

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Missouri