ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 5

After another riveting round of college football action that saw a handful of ranked teams fall, we have an even better sense of who the contenders are and who the pretenders are. Many of the result shook up the weekly bowl projections.

Among the more interesting results were Ole Miss‘ win over LSU, Notre Dame‘s win over Duke and Texas‘ win over Kansas.

How did those games, as well as dozens of others over the weekend, help shake up this week’s college football bowl projections from ESPN experts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look inside.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

Bonagura has left his national championship matchup unchanged from Week 4, butt Schlabach has an interesting switch in his. Rather than Georgia facing Michigan, he now has Michigan facing Texas. The Bulldogs remain in Schlabach’s playoff picture, but he simply has them losing to the Longhorns after a closer showing over the weekend against an iffy Auburn team. That’s certainly an interesting turn of events almost midway through the 2023 campaign.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Washington

Both ESPN writers have left their semifinal matchup in the Rose Bowl unchanged from a week ago, with the steady balanced approach of Michigan earning the Wolverines a spot in the semifinal and the high-flying offense of Washington earning the Huskies a berth. While Michigan still has about a month until it hits the toughest opponents on its schedule, Washington will take on Oregon this week in a game that will almost certainly shake up the bowl projections one way or another.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Texas
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Texas

As noted above, both ESPN writers opted to keep their semifinal pairings from a week ago completely intact, with the only change that Schlabach has predicted Texas to win in the Sugar Bowl instead of Georgia now. In any case, this would be a fun matchup of two relatively well-balanced teams led by some experienced players in key spots.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame

Bonagura’s matchup in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl remains the same as a week ago, with the Big 12 power taking on the Pac-12 power. Schlabach, meanwhile, has changed his predictions up somewhat. Instead of Notre Dame facing Oregon, he now has Notre Dame facing Oklahoma. The Fighting Irish held their own this weekend in a win over a ranked Duke squad, taking a late lead and holding on for the win.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Penn State

Like the Cotton Bowl, Bonagura’s picks from a week ago have held up and he has left them unchanged for the Peach Bowl, pitting Alabama against Fresno State, the best Group of Five team. Schlabach, on the other hand, has remove LSU from this slot after the Tigers dropped a game to the Rebels over the weekend in an absolute barn-burner. He has replaced LSU with Alabama on this list, with the Crimson Tide continuing to pile up wins since losing to the Longhorns.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Ohio State

Both ESPN writers have left their Orange Bowl projections from a week ago unchanged, with Florida State taking on Ohio State. Florida State was off this weekend, getting a well-deserved chance to rest after a pretty tough opening month. Ohio State, meanwhile, was also off this weekend after squeezing out a narrow win over a good, ranked Notre Dame team.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: USC vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Fresno State

The only change here from last week is that Schlabach has removed USC from the Fiesta Bowl and replaced the Trojans with Oregon. Given USC’s ongoing issues defensively, many have lost faith that the program can run the table in a daunting Pac-12. That appears to be the case for Schlabach. Bonagura, though, still has USC in the Fiesta Bowl for now in his latest bowl projections.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Liberty

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall

Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. South Florida

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Army vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Wyoming

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Colorado vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Colorado

Monday, Dec. 18

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Georgia State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Tulsa

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Temple vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Auburn vs. SMU
Schlabach: Army vs. North Texas

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Tulane

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Tulsa vs. Cal
Schlabach: Troy vs. Central Michigan

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: UCF vs. Cal

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Utah

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rice vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Rice vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Texas Tech

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Purdue vs. TCU
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. TCU

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Miami vs. Utah
Schlabach: Duke vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. LSU
(FUN FACT: There were 14 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: NC State vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Kansas
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Kansas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Florida
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Clemson vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Washington State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Missouri
Schlabach: BYU vs. Missouri

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Ole Miss

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Kentucky

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee