ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 7

With a top-10 matchup in the books in the Pac-12 and more Pac-12 carnage as a result of the USC–Notre Dame game, there’s been a significant shift in the overall College Football Playoff and bowl projections following Week 7.

The playoff picture itself is still relatively wide open, but there are a ton of potential wrinkles going forward.

How did the USC-Notre Dame game, as well as dozens of others over the weekend, help shake up this week’s college football bowl projections from ESPN experts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look inside.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

For the first time in several weeks, the actual college football national championship game projections from ESPN remain unchanged. Neither writer changed their prediction for the national title game based on this week’s games. Both have Georgia reaching the NCAA championship game as the top seed. Bonagura has Washington, which beat Oregon this weekend, reaching the title game. Schlabach still has Michigan lining up as Georgia’s opponent.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Washington

Neither ESPN writer changed his prediction for the Rose Bowl, which will feature the semifinal opposite Georgia in the southern region, if all else holds according to prediction. Washington certainly made a strong case for itself on Saturday by topping Oregon in an absolutely thrilling game, though the Huskies still have a long way to go to wrap up the Pac-12 crown. Still, they’re a clear favorite to reach the playoff as of now.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State

Both ESPN writers again have Georgia as the top seed, thus getting the bid to the Sugar Bowl and playing closer to home in the semifinals. That should come as little surprise at this point, with the Bulldogs on one of the most remarkable runs in college football history. Florida State, on the other hand, put together another dominant win this weekend and looks capable of threatening some of the other College Football Playoff contenders in the current bowl projections thanks to weapons like Jordan Travis and Keon Coleman. This makes for an interesting playoff projection.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Texas

Schlabach’s prediction of Penn State vs. Texas remains for the Cotton Bowl, as two of the better Power Five teams projected to miss the College Football Playoff would square off against each other in a thoroughly intriguing matchup. Bonagura’s prediction has shifted a bit, because he had USC in this slot against Oklahoma. Now he has replaced USC with Alabama, which narrowly survived a late comeback bid from Arkansas over the weekend.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Once again, Schlabach’s predictions from a week ago have not changed for the Peach Bowl. Instead it’s Bonagura shifting some teams around as a result of the games this weekend. With Alabama now slotted into the Cotton Bowl, Bonagura has moved Texas into the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl in his latest bowl projections. Air Force remains as the top Group of Five team for Bonagura, slotted into a New Year’s Six bowl.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Neither ESPN writer was forced to change their bowl projections for the Orange Bowl thanks to this week’s results, with both still sticking with the ACC’s second-best team against the Big Ten’s second- or third-best team. That pits North Carolina against Ohio State in the Orange Bowl, which would be a fascinating matchup of teams with high-flying passing attacks in the same game.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Air Force

Even with Oregon’s loss neither ESPN writer changed their predictions for the Fiesta Bowl, which says a whole lot more about USC than anything else. Both view the Trojans as out of the New Year’s Six bowl mix at the moment, which clears the way for Oregon as the Pac-12’s second-best team. Schlabach has Oregon facing Air Force as the top Group of Five team, while Bonagura has Penn State dropping into the Fiesta Bowl as a result of Air Force being in the Peach Bowl.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Rice
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Tulsa vs. Troy
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Fresno State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arizona vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Utah vs. Wyoming

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Arizona

Monday, Dec. 18
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Houston vs. Navy

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. Georgia Tech

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Tulane

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Central Michigan

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: TCU vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: TCU vs. Texas State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. USC
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. UCLA

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: SMU vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: BYU vs. New Mexico State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Duke vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. LSU
(FUN FACT: There were 17 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls. That’s up from seven just one week ago.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: NC State vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Miami vs. Kansas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Florida
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Washington State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Missouri

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Duke vs. Ole Miss

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee