ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 8

It was another wild weekend in college football, with a pair of top-10 teams suffering their first losses of the season and three other ranked teams losing games. That was enough to significantly shake up the postseason bowl projections.

While Ohio State put Penn State on the back burner in the College Football Playoff discussion, Virginia likely outright ended any chance of North Carolina reaching the playoff with a shocking upset.

How did the Ohio State-Penn State game, as well as dozens of others over the weekend, help shake up this week’s college football bowl projections from ESPN experts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look inside.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

Both ESPN writers have been remarkably consistent in predicting Georgia as a likely national championship game participant since the early weeks of the season. That hasn’t changed this week. What has changed is Bonagura now projects Georgia to face Michigan in the title game, as opposed to Washington last week. That’s likely a result of Washington’s uninspiring win over Arizona State over the weekend, coupled with Michigan once again taking care of business.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Washington

There has been no change in prediction from either writer in the Rose Bowl, with both anticipating a classic Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup. Despite Washington’s lackluster win this weekend, the Huskies are still the top-ranked Pac-12 team and are on a collision course with the league title game at the moment. Assuming Washington keeps taking care of business, a return to the College Football Playoff for the first time since the 2016 season seems reasonable.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State

Despite the change in title game bowl projections for this week, there was no change in either semifinal prediction. The only change was Michigan making it to the final instead of Washington. So the Sugar Bowl projection remains Georgia vs. Florida State in what would be an excellent matchup of teams from the south in one of the more storied postseason venues. It would represent quite a contrast in playing styles, too.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Texas

Neither ESPN writer had to change his pick for the Cotton Bowl this week, as all four teams put up results that remained well within expectations. Penn State was the only team in the group to lose this weekend, but there’s still a very decent chance the Nittany Lions could finish as the second-best team from the Big Ten and thus in a New Year’s Six bowl. There’s still some disagreement between the ESPN writers over which Big 12 team will end up in the Cotton Bowl, though.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Neither ESPN writer changed up his bowl projections for the Peach Bowl, either, despite some disagreement about where the top-ranked Group of Five team will slot into the New Year’s Six and which Big 12 team will be in a secondary New Year’s Six bowl. For now Bonagura has Air Force in the Peach Bowl, facing a Texas team that tripped up a couple weeks ago against Oklahoma. Schlabach has Alabama against that same Oklahoma team.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

Prior to this weekend both ESPN writers had North Carolina slotted into the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s second-ranked team, with Florida State qualifying for the playoffs. That changed with this weekend’s loss by the Tar Heels. Now both ESPN analysts are projecting Louisville to step into the spot as the second-ranked ACC team, with the Cardinals sporting a 6-1 record at this point

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Air Force

Once again nothing has changed here for the ESPN writers from last week, with Oregon sticking in its spot as one of the top Pac-12 teams. USC losing again probably helped cement Oregon into a New Year’s Six position here in the bowl projections. The opponent varies. Because Bonagura had Air Force slotted into the Peach Bowl, he’s got Penn State as Oregon’s opponent here. Schlabach, meanwhile, fills the Orange Bowl slot with the projected highest ranked Group of Five champion in Air Force.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Florida International

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Troy

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Rice
Schlabach: Marshall vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: San José State vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Washington State vs. UNLV

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arizona vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Wyoming

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: TCU vs. Washington State
Schlabach: TCU vs. Arizona

Monday, Dec. 18
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Houston vs. Navy

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: UTSA vs. South Alabama

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Rice

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Troy
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Tulane

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. James Madison

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Utah
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. USC

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Memphis vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. New Mexico State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. BYU
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kansas

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Duke vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Miami vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Missouri
(FUN FACT: There were 15 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. SMU
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Utah

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Florida
Schlabach: Duke vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. USC
Schlabach: NC State vs. Colorado

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Tennessee

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss