ESPN releases College Football Playoff odds for top 15 teams

ESPN released their College Football Playoff odds calculator today for the top 15 schools in the nation, allowing fans to predict their playoff chances. The odds given by ESPN have Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Clemson as the four front-runners.

College Football Playoff odds predictor

Using the results of week one and the criteria set by the user, the calculator gives fans the chance to pick a team and decide how its season will pan out. According to their choices, the playoff predictor will determine how likely that team is to be one of the four College Football Playoff semifinalists.

Teams with less than a 3% chance per ESPN to make the College Football Playoffs were not included, leaving the list of teams to choose from at 15.

Odds by School

15. Iowa (3%)
If Iowa can manage to only lose one game all season and win the Big Ten title, ESPN has them above a 60 percent chance to make the playoffs. That would mean only losing one game to the likes of Iowa State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska.

14. Ole Miss (3%)
In a rough road to the playoffs, Ole Miss must beat Alabama. Even if they win every game except Alabama and fail to win the conference title, they only have a 22 percent chance of making it in.

13. Auburn (4%)
Beating Alabama will greatly improve their odds, but the predictor sees no path to the playoffs if they suffer two losses on the season.

12. Oregon (4%)
Winning the Pac-12 title seems to be their only route on the predictor tool, but if they succeed and lose only to Ohio State they’ve got a 52 percent chance of making it.

11. Cincinnati (5%)
The road to the playoffs seems to lie behind a Notre Dame victory. If Cincinnati wins out on the season, they have a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they lose to Notre Dame and win everything else, that chance drops to 12 percent.

10. Penn State (7%)
Their magic number is one loss. If they lose two games this year, the best odds they’ve got are 50 percent even with a conference title. If they only lose to Ohio State this season however, ESPN has them at an 87 percent shot at the playoffs.

9. Florida (9%)
In a recurring theme with SEC teams, it’s a matter of winning the SEC championship. If Florida can win the title, they have a 95 percent chance even if they lose to Alabama during the season. With two losses, those odds plummet.

8. Texas (15%)
With some tough opponents all season long, the biggest obstacle is Oklahoma. Winning the Big 12 means a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs, even with a loss. Losing twice means it’s not likely to happen.

7. Texas A&M (15%)
Similar to Florida, a loss to Alabama doesn’t mean as much if you win the SEC title. Where they differ is that two losses for Texas A&M doesn’t seem quite so bleak, with a 34% chance in that scenario.

6. Notre Dame (21%)
Notre Dame’s odds look promising given their schedule for the year. ESPN favors them in every game they play, with their toughest opponents being Virginia Tech and Wisconsin. Winning out on the year means a 98 percent chance.

5. Georgia (46%)
With a strong win over Clemson to start the season, the road from here looks to be very doable for the Bulldogs. If they win out the season and lose the title game, they still have an 82 percent chance of making it to the playoffs.

4. Clemson (48%)
The loss against Georgia doesn’t spell the end for Clemson, as they’re still favored to win out the rest of their games on the schedule. If they win everything, the predictor has them at a 95 percent chance to make the playoffs.

3. Oklahoma (54%)
If Oklahoma wins out the season, their odds get no worse than 74 percent even if they lose the Big 12 championship. If they lose two games at all though, they will be on the outside looking in.

2. Ohio State (67%)
ESPN likes their odds to make the playoffs as long as they can win the conference championship. They also feel the Buckeyes have an 81 percent chance to beat Penn State, and a 74 percent chance to beat Michigan in the last game of the season.

1. Alabama (86%)
The odds-on favorite to win it all this year. The predictor tool states that even if they lose one game this season, winning the conference championship guarantees them a spot in the playoffs.