ESPN releases first Bracketology of 2024, prediction for NCAA Tournament

A new year, a new NCAA Tournament outlook. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology.

While fans around the country rested during the holidays, their favorite teams battled tooth-and-nail for a spot in the Big Dance. From matchups between storied blue bloods to unlikely showdowns, Christmas presents under the tree weren’t the only gifts fans received this season.

With conference play just over the horizon, things are only going to heat up. However, before we can look ahead, let’s look over Lundardi’s latest predictions for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, starting with the Midwest Region.

Midwest Region (Detroit)
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Merrimack/Southern

Christmas is gone, but Purdue is still gifting its fans constant entertainment. After falling to Northwestern on Dec. 1, the Boilermakers went on a wintery tear. Purdue defeated Iowa, Alabama and former No. 1 Arizona in a 12-day stretch. Of course, reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey was a constant anchor for the Boilermakers during their stunning run.

As for the other schools, let’s all celebrate Merrimack’s newfound freedom. Following a jump up from Div. II in recent years, Merrimack was not allowed to make the NCAA Tournament for their first few seasons. Last season, they beat Fairleigh Dickinson in the NEC title game but weren’t allowed in the Big Dance due to the rule, which allowed Dickinson to steal a spot and wind up beating none other than that Purdue team just above.

(2) Marquette vs. (15) Colgate

Marquette’s taken a few lumps early on in the year thanks to a hellish schedule that featured a trip to Maui against some of the nation’s elites along with several other marquee non-conference matchups in the continental U.S.

It’s the wins over Kansas, Texas and at Illinois that give the Golden Eagles a pretty strong résumé through Christmas. Not to mention, the team secured a 72-67 victory over No. 22 Creighton on Dec. 30. All-American guard Tyler Kolek tallied 15 points and assists in the win.

(3) North Carolina vs. (14) Vermont

North Carolina picked up steam this week, increasing to a three-seed spot. Although the Tar Heels have only played once in the past 13 days, they left a memorable impression. On Dec. 29, UNC bludgeoned Charleston Southern 105-60.

Vermont hasn’t been as fortunate. The Catamounts have lost three of their last four games, most recently falling 70-69 to Miami (OH). Virginia Tech was the only Power Five team Vermont played over the four-game stretch. The Catamounts fell to the Hokies by 22 points. For reference, Lunardi did not include Virginia Tech in his latest NCAA Tournament projections.

(8) Ole Miss vs. (9) Dayton
(5) Baylor vs. (12) Princeton
(4) Memphis vs. (13) Liberty
(6) Texas A&M vs. (11) Utah State/Nebraska
(7) Utah vs. (10) Northwestern

South Region (Dallas)
(1) Houston vs. UT Martin/South Dakota State

There’s excellent defense, and then there’s Houston. The Cougars are on their own level, giving up nearly seven fewer points per game than the second-best defense in the nation. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s defensive-oriented approach has paid off.

Houston is one of only three teams in the nation that are still undefeated. Yet, with conference play just around the corner, the Cougars’ spotless record will be put to the test. It’s a necessary challenge. If Houston can’t handle its Big 12 opponents, it certainly can’t deal with a 16-seed foe.

(3) Clemson vs. (14) Lipscomb

Excluding a loss to Memphis on Dec. 16, Clemson has been rolling this season. The Tigers are 10-1, and likely the best team head coach Brad Brownell has fielded in six seasons at the helm. With three players averaging more than 10 points per game, Clemson has a legitimate chance to steal the ACC crown.

Of course, whoever awaits the Tigers won’t bend the knee. If Lipscomb happens to be that team, Clemson can expect a war. The Bisons only lost by three points to Arkansas on Dec. 16 and stunned Florida State with a 78-75 triumph on Dec. 30.

(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Fort Wayne

Kentucky is one of the hottest teams in the country and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. The Wildcats are on a four-game win streak, including a 95-76 blowout win over in-state rival Louisville.

The ‘Cats are at their most efficient in the Calipari Era, shooting 41.6% from beyond the arc, which is the third-best in the nation. Defense doesn’t take a backseat, either. UK averages a whopping nine steals per game. With its quick guards and lengthy bigs, Kentucky will be a tough out come March.

(8) Nevada vs. (9) Miami
(5) Auburn vs. (12) Indiana State
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) McNeese State
(6) Villanova vs. (11) South Carolina
(7) Colorado vs. (10) Mississippi State

West Region (Los Angeles)
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Marist

If someone ever offers you odds on Kansas to earn a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and Bill Self is still the head coach, you better ask how much and reach your hand out to shake on it. Because there is no more bankable coach than Self in earning high seeds. Every season, like clockwork, no matter the KU team, the Jayhawks simply amass great wins and avoid bad losses to wind up as a one. 

Kansas has currently earned a one-seed in four of the last six NCAA Tournaments and were the overwhelming favorites to be the No. 1 overall seed the year the tourney was canceled, so make it five of the last seven — and the other two weren’t too far off. With wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn already, they are well on their way to a No. 1.

(2) Arizona vs. Drexel

Despite losing three of its last five games, Arizona still earned a two-seed spot from Lunardi. On Dec. 16, the Wildcats fell to Purdue. Just seven days later, the team dropped a game to FAU in double overtime. On New Year’s Eve, the Wildcat took an 18-point loss at the hands of Stanford.

Amid Arizona’s recent downward spiral, the team still boasts impressive win. The Wildcats have wins over Duke, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Arizona’s success is largely due to its dynamic offense, which averages 92.3 points per game, the second-most in the country.

(3) Illinois vs. (14) Vermont

If the the Fighting Illini land a No. 3 seed, it would be their best seed-line since the Ayo Dosunmu-led team of 2020-21 that earned a No. 1 but fell to Loyola Chicago in the second round. In fact, a three would mark the Illini’s second-best seed under Brad Underwood — and it would be the program’s third-highest seed since Bill Self was head coach. 

All that to say: the Illini are off to a good start and with impressive wins over Missouri, FAU and Rutgers to prove it. Defensively, these Illini are making life an obstacle course on opposing offenses while still possessing the high-paced three-happy style that Coach Underwood like to run on that end.

(8) Michigan State vs. (9) Gonzaga
(5) Colorado State vs. (12) Grand Canyon
(4) Florida Atlantic vs. (13) UC Irvine
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Texas/New Mexico
(7) Creighton vs. (10) Florida

(1) Uconn vs. (16) Norfolk State

The defending champs look the part through a couple of months. UCONN lost arguably their three best and most important players off the team last spring but retooled and found a four-man group that’s the face and identity of this team.

Tristen Newton is a big-bodied senior point guard who, this year, can score even better than he distributes. Cam Spencer was an underrated add from Rutgers, who excels at shooting and defense. Alex Karaban is a modern basketball dream, a lengthy forward with a lethal three-point stroke. Finally, Donovan Clingan is an anchor down low. However, if Clingan remains out or one of those four go down, this team takes a big blow, as evidenced by the Seton Hall loss.

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Longwood

Tennessee is still in two-seed territory, per Joe Lunardi, but it’s on the edge. The Volunteers suffered a three-game swoon back in November, dropping the final two contests of their Maui Invitational run vs. Purdue and Kansas before going on the road in the ACC-SEC Challenge to lose to a North Carolina team that went nuclear.

Despite the team’s three-game setback, the Volunteers are catching fire at the perfect time. Tennessee is on a five-game win streak, most recently defeating Tarleton State in blowout fashion. On Jan. 6, the Volunteers will have a chance to add to their resumé with a win over undefeated Ole Miss.

(3) BYU vs. (14) Weber State

The Cougars are pouncing on opponents with more ease than fans have seen since Jimmer Fredette donned BYU Blue. The team is 12-1 and ranked as the No. 3 program in the KenPom Ratings. BYU’s success is largely due to its efficient play.

The Cougars are shooting a ridiculous 60% from two-point range this season, the seventh-best in the country. BYU is no slouch from beyond the arc, either, connecting on 38% of its attempts from range. BYU isn’t afraid to share the wealth. The Cougars are averaging 22.5 assists per game this year, the most nationally.

(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Iowa State
(5) Oklahoma vs. (12) Indiana
(4) Duke vs. (13) Samford
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) Virginia
(7) Providence vs. (10) James Madison