ESPN releases new Bracketology prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament after wild week of upsets

Conference play has begun, and the rankings reflect it. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology.

With a few wild upsets over the weekend, there was no shortage of shifts in Lundardi’s NCAA Tournament predictions. As conference play heats up, those predictions will only become more skewed. Now, is the time for a team to earn its spot in the Big Dance.

This is who Lunardi currently believes will make it in March, starting with the Midwest Region.

Midwest Region (Detroit)
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Merrimack/Southern

Purdue didn’t miss a step when beginning conference play. The Boilermakers were impressive as usual this week, defeating Maryland and No. 9 Illinois. In their win over the Fighting Illini, Zach Edey tallied 10 points and 15 rebounds while shooting 5-5 from the field.

Clearly, competition doesn’t bother the big man. Purdue hasn’t lost a game since Dec. 1 when it fell in stunning fashion to Northwestern. With the way the Boilermakers are rolling right now, it may be another month before they lose again.

(2) Kentucky vs. (15) Western Kentucky

Kentucky can be a loose cannon. Nonetheless, it hurts when it hits you. UK had to rein in its wild nature on Saturday in a down-to-the-wire 87-85 win over Florida. Aaron Bradshaw, who returned from injury in December, had a breakout performance.

In the second half alone, Bradshaw tallied 10 points and six rebounds. With 1:27 left in the game, the 7-foot freshman knocked down a game-changing 3-pointer, only his third of the season. Kentucky’s Zvonimir Ivisic is yet to gain eligibility, but Kentucky looks dangerous in the new year.

(3) Marquette vs. (14) High Point

Marquette took a few lumps early on this season thanks to a hellish schedule that featured a trip to Maui against some of the nation’s elites along with several other marquee non-conference matchups in the continental U.S.

Now in the heat of Big East play, it won’t get any easier for the Golden Eagles. They learned this lesson the hard way on Saturday in a 78-75 loss to Seton Hall. All-American guard Tyler Kolek struggled in the loss, only scoring five points on 1-6 shooting. Marquette will needs its leader to step up if it wants to make a deep run in March.

(8) Ole Miss vs. (9) Miami
(5) Creighton vs. (12) McNeese State
(4) Oklahoma vs. (13) Akron
(6) FAU vs. (11) Northwestern/Mississippi State
(7) Nevada vs. (10) Iowa State

South Region (Dallas)
(1) Houston vs. St. Peter’s/South Dakota State

Houston is the only undefeated team remaining in the country and Lunardi rewarded it accordingly. The Cougars dominated West Virginia on Saturday in an 89-55 blowout. The Cougars held the Mountaineers to just 22 points in the first half.

The jaw-dropping defensive feat isn’t unusual for Houston. Led by head coach Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars only allow 49.8 points per game, the least in the nation. For reference, the next best team gives up nearly eight points more per contest.

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Colgate

If there were any doubts still surrounding Tennessee, they dissipated on Saturday. The Volunteers comfortably handed No. 22 Ole Miss a 90-64 beatdown, the Rebels’ first loss of the season. Tennessee owned the glass in the triumph, grabbing nearly five times as many offensive rebounds as Ole Miss.

Tennessee is on a seven-game win streak. The team became electric after losing three straight games in late November. In fairness, the Volunteers played Purdue, Kansas and North Carolina in an eight-day window. With conference play heating up, Tennessee caught fire just in time.

(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Morehead State

After winning four games in a row, Wisconsin is rising in Lunardi’s rankings. The Badgers are 2-0 in conference play, most recently handing Nebraska an 88-72 defeat, ending the Cornhuskers five-game win streak.

Wisconsin never trailed in the victory. The team shot 55% from the floor and connected on 13-of-26 (50%) attempts from beyond the arc to post its highest 3-point basket total of the season. At this rate, Wisconsin will be a legitimate threat in the Big Ten down the stretch.

(8) Texas A&M vs. (9) St. John’s
(5) Colorado State vs. (12) Oregon
(4) Duke vs. (13) Weber State
(6) Dayton vs. (11) Grand Canyon
(7) Utah State vs. (10) Texas Tech

West Region (Los Angeles)
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Troy

It wasn’t pretty, but Kansas secured an 83-81 win over TCU in its Big 12 opener on Saturday. In the win, All-American center Hunter Dickinson found a basket down low with 3.4 seconds remaining. While Jayhawks fans were overjoyed to walk away victorious, the country wasn’t so satisfied.

With just 1:38 remaining in the game, TCU found itself up 79-77. Then, disaster struck. TCU’s Ernest Udeh Jr. skied for a rebound and inadvertently whacked Dickinson in the face. The referees gave Udeh a flagrant foul, leading to a four-point swing for the Jayhawks. TCU almost had them, but “almost” won’t be remembered by March.

(2) Arizona vs. (15) Drexel

December wasn’t for the Wildcats, but they’re pouncing on January. Arizona is 2-0 in the new year with an average win margin of 33 points. Arizona needs the confidence boost. The Wildcats lost three of its last five battles in December, including an unexpected 100-82 loss to Stanford on New Year’s Eve.

Even in a loss, Arizona’s offense is awe-inspiring. The Wildcats have the best offense in the country, averaging a ridiculous 92.6 points per game. With matchup against teams like USC and UCLA just over the horizon, Arizona will have no shortage of opportunities to solidify its spot near the top of college basketball.

(3) Auburn vs. (14) Vermont

Auburn opened SEC play with a statement. On Saturday, head coach Bruce Pearl led his Tigers into hostile territory and ran away with a jaw-dropping 83-51 win over Arkansas. Instead of relying on its staple 3-point shooting, Auburn dominated the paint.

The Tigers nearly tripled Arkansas’ paint points while owning the boards. The loss is the worst in Bud Walton Arena history, which began in 1993. With the win, Auburn hasn’t lost in over a month. The Tigers are dangerous.

(8) Utah vs. (9) Gonzaga
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Princeton
(4) Clemson vs. (13) Samford
(6) BYU vs. (11) Colorado
(7) Michigan State vs. (10) Providence

East Region (Boston)
(1) Uconn vs. (16) Norfolk State

After falling to Seton Hall on Dec. 20, UConn has only bounced back strong. The Huskies have won three in a row since then, all wins over Big East foes. UConn’s most recent victory was an 88-81 triumph over Butler.

In the win, UConn had four players score 14 or more points. Additionally, the Huskies shot an impressive 54.5% from the field and 38.5% from beyond the arc. Fans can only expect UConn to improve when standout center Donovan Clingan returns from injury.

(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Drexel

North Carolina is embracing the ups and the downs this season. As of late, the team has enjoyed a lot of ups. The Tar Heels are on a four-game win streak, including wins over No. 7 Oklahoma and No. 16 Clemson.

In North Carolina’s 65-55 win over Clemson, center Armando Bacot amassed 14 points and 16 rebounds. The win gave North Carolina a 3-0 start in conference play, its first since the 2015-16 season. If it’s any indication, North Carolina reached the National Championship that season.

(3) Illinois vs. (14) Fort Wayne

Illinois lost its last fight, but it gained the spectators’ respect. On Friday, Illinois fell 83-78 to No. 1 Purdue, ending a four-game win streak for the Fighting Illini. It wasn’t an easy win for Purdue.

The Boilermakers entered the halftime break with a 15-point lead but were quickly grasping for straws when Illinois cut its deficit to three points. Illinois is a team that can beat anybody in the country on any given night. Evidently, Lunardi believes lots of celebratory nights are in the program’s future.

(8) Ohio State vs. (9) South Carolina
(5) San Diego State vs. (12) Indiana State
(4) Baylor vs. (13) UC Irvine
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Wake Forest/James Madison
(7) Villanova vs. (10) Cincinnati