ESPN releases updated Bracketology, prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament

Ho ho ho, here comes Joe Lunardi down the chimney with glee to deliver one big early Christmas gift to college basketball fans: a brand new ESPN Bracketology update.

December can be a slower month for college hoops with the Holiday season, final exams and the break from school. However, we have still gotten a fair share of marquee matchups mixed in every weekend, giving us a better picture of the national landscape each and every day. Now that we’re almost ready to flip the calendar, you can see below what the world’s most well-known bracket predictor believes the NCAA Tournament field looks like just ahead of Christmas weekend.

We’ll go region by region, starting with the No. 1 overall seed from the Midwest Region…

Midwest Region (Detroit)
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Merrimack/Southern

After finishing off Arizona in a neutral court showdown, Purdue reclaimed their rightful position as college basketball’s overwhelming No. 1 through the end of the calendar year. With Zach Edey, older guard play, and some extra pieces on the edge of what was already a tremendous roster a season ago, it’s getting hard not to compare the Boilermakers to the 2019 Cavaliers.

As for the other schools, let’s all celebrate the freeing of Merrimack. Following a jump up from Div. II in recent years, Merrimack was not allowed to make the NCAA Tournament for their first few seasons. However, last season, they beat Fairleigh Dickinson in the NEC title game but weren’t allowed in the Big Dance due to the rule, which allowed Dickinson to steal a spot and wind up beating none other than that Purdue team just above. Just something to monitor if this matchup comes to fruition.

(2) Marquette vs. (15) Morehead State

Marquette’s taken a few lumps early on in the year thanks to a hellish schedule that featured a trip to Maui against some of the nation’s elites along with several other marquee non-conference matchups in the continental U.S. It’s the wins over Kansas, Texas and at Illinois that give the Golden Eagles a pretty strong resume through Christmas.

On the other side of this matchup await another Eagles squad, the one from Morehead, Kentucky, and coached by Preston Spradlin. He locked down a regular season and conference tournament championship in two of the prior three seasons in the OVC and Morehead State appears to be running the league again in ’24.

(3) Baylor vs. (14) Longwood

Baylor and Longwood are two of the nation’s leaders in point differential so far this season with the Bears particularly off to a blistering start until recently. The Bears have some of the best offensive numbers in the country and are once again lethal from beyond the arc with a slew of guards who can win off the bounce and knock down threes at 40% or better. You’re not stopping Scott Drew’s club this season.

But his Bears also may not stop anyone themselves on the defensive end. With a solid rim protector in Yves Missi plus some slightly better defensive personnel overall this season, there is some resistance, but the defense is far from what is was back in 2021.

(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Miami
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Indiana State
(4) Auburn vs. (13) McNeese State
(6) Colorado State vs. (11) Grand Canyon
(7) Ohio State vs. (10) Mississippi State

West Region (Los Angeles)
(1) Arizona vs. (16) South Dakota State

Purdue defeated Arizona to usurp the No. 1 overall seed in Joey Brackets’ predictions, but it was clear going into that matchup and clear coming out of it that the Wildcats and Boilermakerswere the two best teams in college hoops. Or, at least, the two teams playing the best to start the year. And while Tommy Lloyd’s group ultimately wore down, this is a balanced and dangerous U of A team that can drop the hammer on both sides of the basketball.

Plus, aside from the lone loss to Purdue away from home, Arizona has built a pretty remarkable resume and before Santa’s even come down the chimney. The ‘Cats own wins over at Duke, home vs. Wisconsin and on neutral courts vs. Michigan State and Alabama.

(2) Houston vs. (15) Weber State

There’s Kelvin Sampson slow-clapping as three undefeated teams remain and the Cougars are one of them, just humming along and smashing opponents en route to one victory after another. Their latest was a perfect encapsulation of everything that Sampson preaches down there as his Houston club dismantled Texas State 72-37. The Bobcats didn’t even score a point per minute as the Cougars came within two points of doubling them up.

They currently have the No. 1 defense in virtually every ratings system that breaks down college hoops and are holding foes to a nation-leading average of just 50 points per contest. Then, on the offensive end, guys like LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp splash threes left and right while Jamal Shead runs point and the J’Wan Roberts/J’Vier Francis duo patrol the paint and control the glass.

(3) Creighton vs. (14) Hofstra

Coming into the year with immense hype and promise, the Blue Jays haven’t necessarily under-delivered, but they’ve had a strange year after coming in as a perceived title contender. They had little issue with Iowa or Nebraska, and beat Alabama. However, they were blown out by 21 vs. Colorado State, lost by 15 at UNLV and just lost at home in overtime to a very up-and-down Villanova team. Greg McDermott’s squad is an enigma.

Alabama may have pillaged Hofstra and swiped their best player from 2023, Aaron Estrada, but Speedy Claxton had two alliteratively-named stars waiting in the wings. To start this season, guard Tyler Thomas and Darlinstone Dubar are combining to average 40 points, 10 rebounds and four assists per game to carry the Pride.

(8) Texas vs. (9) Northwestern
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Indiana
(4) BYU vs. (13) UC Irvine
(6) Duke vs. (11) Washington
(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) James Madison

South Region (Dallas)
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Norfolk State/Marist

If someone ever offers you odds on Kansas to earn a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and Bill Self is still the head coach, you better ask how much and reach your hand out to shake on it. Because there is no more bankable coach than Self in earning high seeds. Every season, like clockwork, no matter the KU team, the Jayhawks simply amass great wins and avoid bad losses to wind up as a one.

Kansas has currently earned a one-seed in four of the last six NCAA Tournaments and were the overwhelming favorites to be the No. 1 overall seed the year the tourney was cancelled, so make it five of the last seven — and the other two weren’t too far off. With wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn already, they are well on their way to a No. 1.

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Vermont

Tennessee somehow remains in two-seed territory per Joe Lunardi despite a very rocky start to the year. The Volunteers suffered a three-game swoon back in November, dropping the final two contests of their Maui Invitational run vs. Purdue and Kansas before going on the road in the ACC-SEC Challenge to lose to a North Carolina team that went nuclear.

So the losses all came to teams ranked in the top-10 at the time and still in the top-15 now. Meanwhile, Rick Barnes‘ club also picked up a handful of resume wins already, taking care of business at home vs. Illinois while also kicking Wisconsin’s tail on their home court.

(3) Illinois vs. (14) Colgate

Speaking of Illinois, the Fighting Illini fall in as a No. 3, which would be their best seed-line since the Ayo Dosunmu-led team of 2020-21 that earned a No. 1 but fell to Loyola Chicago in the second round. In fact, a three would mark the Illini’s second best seed under Brad Underwood — and it would be the program’s third-highest seed since Bill Self was head coach.

All that to say: the Illini are off to a good start and with impressive wins over Missouri, FAU and Rutgers to prove it. Defensively, these Illini are making life an obstacle course on opposing offenses while still possessing the high-paced three-happy style that Coach Underwood like to run on that end.

(8) Villanova vs. (9) Utah
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) Princeton
(4) FAU vs. (13) Liberty
(6) Virginia vs. (11) New Mexico
(7) Colorado vs. (10) Providence

East Region (Boston)
(1) UConn vs. (16) Lipscomb

The defending champs look the part through a couple of months. They lost arguably their three best and most important players off the team last spring but retooled and found a four-man group that’s the face and identity of this team. It’s…

Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan. Newton the big-bodied senior point guard who, this year, can score even better than he distributes. Cam Spencer was such an underrated add from Rutgers and does everything well, but most of all shooting and defense. Karaban is a modern basketball dream as a lengthy forward with a lethal three-point stroke, and then Clingan is a megalodon post presence. However, if Clingan remains out or one of those four go down, this team takes a big blow, as evidenced by the Seton Hall loss.

(2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Fort Wayne

Oklahoma finally took one on the chin, losing in Charlotte vs. a North Carolina team that needed to respond well following a close and competitive loss to Kentucky on another neutral court a couple of days prior. Before that misstep, the Sooners had floated all the way up to No. 7 in the AP Poll as one of the last remaining unbeatens.

On the other side, Indiana University–Purdue University Fort Wayne (yes, the full name of the college) has never made an NCAA Tournament but have their eyes set on finally getting in after an 11-2 start to this season that only features losses to solid teams, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. The Mastodons appear to be the class of the Horizon League.

(3) Clemson vs. (14) UNC Greensboro

No Clemson in the College Football Playoff bracket, but perhaps that means Tiger fans can turn their attention to the best basketball team Brad Brownell has had in at least six seasons — and perhaps ever. With star returners PJ Hall and Chase Hunter teaming up with more offensive firepower in Joe Girard from Syracuse, plus the terrific development of Ian Schieffelin into the ideal role player — this is a darn good team. Tigers have a legit shot to compete for the ACC crown.

If Clemson does earn a No. 3, they won’t be loving this matchup against a UNCG program that has long been a very solid mid-major program and regular NCAA Tournament participant. There are few more consistent teams in the country at the mid-major level than the Spartans as they are no strangers to the Big Dance — or to pulling upsets.

(8) Ole Miss vs. (9) Dayton
(5) North Carolina vs. (12) Kansas State/South Carolina
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Akron
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Nevada/Nebraska
(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Florida