ESPN releases way-too-early projections for 2025-2026 NCAA Tournament

The 2025 NCAA Tournament ended just three weeks ago while the tip-off to next season is still about six months out. Still, in looking ahead to the next year in college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released an update to Bracketology with a projected field for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Lunardi shared that they’ll release an updated bracket, based on roster movement and anticipated offensive and defensive efficiency, once a month from now through October. This is the first edition of those for what the Field of 68 could look like in ’26.

Coming off a record-breaking year, in berths and finishes, by the conference this postseason, the SEC is atop the list again with 13 teams in the bracket, which would be one shy of last year’s new record. The Big Ten, who often projected to have double-digits in this last postseason before ending with eight in, is then still second with a dozen. The Big 12, ACC, and Big East are from there with eight, five, and four in respectively from those leagues.

Again, this is way, way early considering the portal and draft decisions still needing to be made going into the summer before the season begins in November. Still, here’s Lunardi’s first look at what March Madness could look like in 2026 with ten and a half months until Selection Sunday:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Maryland, Creighton, Miami
Last Four In: Marquette, Indiana, Ole Miss, NC State
First Four Out: SMU, Washington, Texas A&M, Nebraska
Next Four Out: TCU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgetown

The bubble is full of several teams who made the field or just missed out on the tournament last year. It’s also key for several of the leagues with the SEC close to adding a record-tying one with a 14th, the Big Ten nearing 14 in total as well, and the ACC having a chance at as many as eight

New coaches is also a theme among multiple of these programs. Buzz Williams at Maryland, Jai Lucas at Miami, Darian DeVries at Indiana, and Will Wade at NC State have their new teams just in the field in this projection while Bucky McMillan at Texas A&M is right there among the First Four Out.

Midwest Region – Chicago

Purdue is projected as one of the top teams for next season with the roster they’ll have for next season with Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer leading their returners while they’re also bringing in Oscar Cluff (South Dakota State) from the portal and Omer Mayer from overseas. Lunardi also cited their consistency, both in seeding and in postseason finishes, as the reasoning why the Boilermakers were the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament for him.

The Midwest Region also includes five others teams that should rate highly coming into next season in Kentucky, Iowa State, Auburn, and Louisville. Oregon at No. 8 for the Big Ten vs. Oklahoma at No. 9 for the SEC as well as Creighton at No. 10 for the Big East rounds out the seeding before the mid-majors.

1. Purdue vs. 16. South Carolina State/Central Connecticut
8. Oregon vs. 9. Oklahoma
5. Louisville vs. 12. Liberty
4. Auburn vs. 13. High Point

6. Missouri vs. 11. San Diego State
3. Iowa State vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. Illinois vs. 10. Creighton
2. Kentucky vs. 15. North Alabama

West Region – San Jose

Houston still has some heartbreak coming off their loss in the national title game earlier this month in this year’s tournament. That said, the Cougars will be right back in contention next season as a No. 1 seed for a fourth-straight season here, with Emanuel Sharp, Joseph Tugler, and possibly Milos Uzan back and them bringing in Pop Isaacs (Creighton) plus the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation, for their dozenth year under Kelvin Sampson.

The West Region then has Michigan, led by a top portal class, at No. 2 and Tennessee, now since adding a trio of transfers and one of the best recruits in the country, at No. 3. Also of note here is UCLA at No. 4, Arkansas at No. 5 under John Calipari, and Kansas with a consecutive seeding as a No. 7 with the Jayhawks having lost much of their corps from the past few seasons.

1. Houston vs. 16. Southeast Missouri State
8. Vanderbilt vs. 9. Iowa
5. Arkansas vs. 12. Yale
4. UCLA vs. 13. Charleston

6. Gonzaga vs. 11. VCU
3. Tennessee vs. 14. McNeese State
7. Kansas vs. 10. Miami
2. Michigan vs. 15. Youngstown State

East Region – Washington D.C.

Duke is then projected to get a second-straight seeding as a No. 1 in the tournament. The Blue Devils are losing several lottery picks and some veteran guards but still have pieces like Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster, Maliq Brown, and Patick Ngongba to complement the roster, now currently have a top incoming transfer in Cedric Coward (Washington State), and then have a trio of top freshman in their top-three class, the two legacy recruits in Cameron Boozer and Cayden Boozer plus Nikolas Khamenia, with enough to compete again next season.

The East Region also has Connecticut as a No. 2 seed, with the Huskies getting an additional boost this morning with the return of Alex Karaban, while Arizona is a No. 3 seed with some of their roster still intact to pair with their own top-three incoming class. Blue bloods like Michigan State at No. 4 and North Carolina as a No. 7, with an all-new roster with the Tar Heels, are also here with three teams from the Lonestar State as well, who are all dealing with some roster overhaul, with No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 8 Texas now under Sean Miller, and No. 9 Baylor.

1. Duke vs. 16. Vermont/Jackson State
8. Texas vs. 9. Baylor
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Illinois State
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Miami (OH)

6. Alabama  vs. 11. Memphis
3. Arizona vs. 14. Troy
7. North Carolina vs. 10. Maryland
2. Connecticut vs. 15. Siena

South Region – Houston

St. John’s, coming off one of their best seasons in school history, could now be even better in year three under Rick Pitino as the last of the projected No. 1 seeds for the tournament. The Red Storm did lose some notable pieces, due to eligibility or the portal, but do return Zuby Ejifor to go with six of the very best transfers in the country.

The South also has BYU, coming off a great season with two returning starters to pair with AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 recruit in the country for 2025, and Rob Wright (Baylor) out of the portal, at No. 2 while Florida, the defending national champions, are at No. 3. This region has several of those new coaches or programs getting back into the bracket too like Eric Musselman with the Trojans at No. 4 plus DeVries and the Hoosiers as well as Wade and the Wolfpack.

1. St. John’s vs. 16. Navy
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Georgia
5. Ohio State vs. 12. Grand Canyon
4. USC vs. 13. UC Santa Barbara

6. Wisconsin vs. 11. Ole Miss/NC State
3. Florida vs. 14. Furman
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Marquette/Indiana
2. BYU vs. 15. Idaho