ESPN shakes up college basketball NCAA Tournament projections with new No. 1 seed

With the season in college basketball reaching a holiday lull, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released the latest update to Bracketology.

One of the bigger shifts this week is the inclusion of a new No. 1 seed in Duke. Following Kentucky’s 20-point loss in the CBS Sports Classic and the Blue Devils mark at 2-0 since the last, including a second road win already in conference play, they took the final top seed out in the West Region.

The SEC also remains in a heavy lead for the most seeds set to be in the field with 13 with a pair more just outside on the bubble. The Big Ten would also get double digits with 10 while the Big 12 is at eight, the ACC is at five, the Big East is at three, and then the West Coast Conference, Mountain West, and Missouri Valley each have a pair apiece.

With that, here’s how Lunardi projects the 2025 NCAA Tournament at ESPN as of the morning of Christmas Eve:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

This week’s bubble saw multiple teams shuffle on it from within in and out of the field for ESPN.

As for being in, Texas and Ohio State went from being two of the Last Four in to earning byes while SMU, on a six-game win streak, went from the Next Four Out to being the final team in the field. Vanderbilt and Iowa also moved up but still remain out among the First Four. Then, for slides, Saint Mary’s went from a bye to being the second-to-last team after a third loss in their last six in while Creighton went from the front of the Last Four In to the Front of the First Four Out after a 24-point loss at Georgetown.

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Texas, Arizona State, Ohio State
Last Four In: Drake, Missouri, Saint Mary’s, SMU
First Four Out: Nebraska, Vanderbilt, BYU, Iowa
Next Four Out: Creighton, LSU, Northwestern, Louisville

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn remained at No. 1 overall this week for ESPN after two more blowouts, including an 18-point win over Purdue in Birmingham this past weekend. With that, the Tigers have won their 11 games, four of those being against Top-20 competition, by an average of 25.6 points, with their one loss now being on the road to what is now another No. 1 seed.

The South Region saw several teams drop in and to its field too with Kentucky now at No. 2 here along with Michigan at No. 7, Clemson at No. 8, and Saint Mary’s as one of two possibilities at No. 11.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/American
8. Clemson vs. 9. West Virginia
5. Memphis vs. 12. Furman
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. High Point

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Drake/Saint Mary’s
3. Oregon vs. 14. UMass Lowell
7. Michigan vs. 10. Utah State
2. Kentucky vs. 15. Montana

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Tennessee, who remains undefeated at 12-0, also stayed as the second of the No. 1 seeds in the Midwest. Portions of their last four games have been closer, including needing a game-winner to get out of Illinois with a win while also being down at halftime to Middle Tennessee State before winning by 18. Still, they’re at a dozen wins without a loss with one non-conference game left before play in the SEC.

This portion of the bracket also saw the most movement. Mississippi State at No. 4, Pittsburgh at No. 6, Cincinnati at No. 7, Texas at No. 10, and Ohio State at No. 11 all moved up while Purdue went down to a No. 5 and Dayton did too to a No. 8.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Lamar
8. Dayton vs. 9. San Diego State
5. Purdue vs. 12. Arkansas State
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Ohio State
3. Kansas vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. Cincinnati vs. 10. Texas
2. Marquette vs. 15. Merrimack

East Region – Newark

Iowa State also held as the third of the No. 1 seeds in moving to 10-1 with a win over Morgan State. They’ll now be off for the remainder of this week before they start conference play in the Big 12.

UConn is then back up to a No. 3 following a 2-0 start to league play in the Big East in winning six consecutive overall while Baylor is down to a No. 6 after having not played since December 11th while North Carolina is down to a No. 10 with the Tar Heels splitting ranked, neutral-site matchups this past week with Florida and UCLA.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Hampton/SE Missouri State
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. Arkansas
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Liberty
4. UCLA vs. 13. Kent State

6. Baylor vs. 11. Missouri/SMU
3. UConn vs. 14. Princeton
7. Maryland vs. 10. North Carolina
2. Alabama vs. 15. Norfolk State

West Region – San Francisco

Again, Duke is that final seed at No. 1 at ESPN after blowouts over George Mason by 21 and then at Georgia Tech by 26. Now, at 10-2 going into the rest of their schedule in the ACC, the Blue Devils should be in contention to stay in one of these four top seeds for the rest of the way.

Florida and Oklahoma, who are both undefeated at 12-0, are up to No. 2 and No. 5 respectively in this region as are Texas Tech at No. 9 and Arizona State at No. 11. Gonzaga is then down to No. 3 as the automatic qualifier from the WCC.

1. Duke vs. 16. Youngstown State
8. Georgia vs. 9. Texas Tech
5. Oklahoma vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Houston vs. 13. Grand Canyon

6. Illinois vs. 11. Arizona State
3. Gonzaga vs. 14. Central Connecticut
7. St. John’s vs. 10. Penn State
2. Florida vs. 15. Indiana State