ESPN SP+ predicts outcome of biggest college football games of Week 6

It’s a big weekend of college football coming in Week 6, headlined by a massive rivalry showdown at the Cotton Bowl. And ESPN’s SP+ rating system has predictions for that and plenty of other big-time showdowns in Week 6.

The SP+ metric, which tracks the performance of teams throughout the season and offers matchup predictions, has a few notable upsets tabbed for Week 6, too. It also likes the chalk in quite a few, too.

Check out the full SP+ picks for some of the best matchups in a jam-packed Week 6 slate.

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 12 Oklahoma

Kickoff: Noon EST (ABC)
Spread: Texas (-6.5)
SP+ Pick: Texas by 2.5 points

This game was a washout a year ago, with the Longhorns drubbing a quarterback-deficient Sooners squad. The 2023 edition should be a much more competitive affair, even if Texas is a slight favorite.

No. 11 Alabama at Texas A&M

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EST (CBS)
Spread: Alabama (-1.5)
SP+ Pick: Alabama by 0.6 points

Alabama returns to College Station for the first time since being upset in 2021. And while the Crimson Tide might be trending up, a raucous road environment could unsettle the offense against a fierce front seven.

No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri

Kickoff: Noon EST (ESPN)
Spread: LSU (-5.5)
SP+ Pick: Missouri by 1.2 points

LSU’s defense is coming off, arguably, the worst performance in the history of the program. It’s a safe bet the Tigers won’t give up more than 700 yards to the Tigers from Columbia, but LSU isn’t likely to waltz away with a win — SP+ even differs with the odds, giving Missouri the edge.

No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia

Kickoff: 7 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Spread: Georgia (-14.5)
SP+ Pick: Georgia by 11.7 points

Kentucky seemingly has the recipe to keep it close with Georgia, but it’s possible the Bulldogs finally kick things up a gear as a somewhat lackadaisical start to the season. That’s what the SP+ is predicting, to some extent.

Maryland at No. 4 Ohio State

Kickoff: Noon EST (Fox)
Spread: Ohio State (-20)
SP+ Pick: Ohio State by 16.1 points

Much like Kentucky, Maryland is undefeated and heading into a road matchup against a much more talented squad. SP+ likes the Terrapins chances at the upset even less than Kentucky, predicting the Buckeyes win by around two touchdowns.

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EST (ABC)
Spread: Notre Dame (-6.5)
SP+ Pick: Notre Dame by 6.8 points

Louisville will be the third-straight undefeated team that Notre Dame faces. But the SP+ thinks the Irish make it 2-1 against the undefeated teams, as it likes Notre Dame to handle business on the road.

Beyond these high-profile matchups, the Week 6 slate still has plenty of life. There are rivalry matchups like Michigan traveling to face Minnesota and intriguing matchups for top draft prospects, like Drake Maye and North Carolina facing a 4-1 Syracuse squad, and even out west, Washington State travels to UCLA and in Group of 5 action, undefeated Fresno State visits 4-1 Wyoming for a massive Mountain West showdown.