ESPN updates Bracketology, prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament

Christmas came a day late this year. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology.

While December isn’t the busiest month in college basketball, it still provides plenty of quality contests. From matchups between storied blue bloods to unlikely showdowns, December gave Lunardi a lot to consider. Entering conference play, things are only going to heat up.

However, before we can look ahead, let’s look over Lundardi’s latest predictions for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, starting with the Midwest Region.

Midwest Region (Detroit)
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Merrimack/Southern

Christmas is gone, but Purdue is still gifting its fans constant entertainment. After falling to Northwestern on Dec. 1, the Boilermakers went on a wintery tear. Purdue defeated Iowa, Alabama and former No. 1 Arizona in a 12-day stretch. Of course, reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey was a constant anchor for the Boilermakers during their stunning run.

As for the other schools, let’s all celebrate Merrimack’s newfound freedom. Following a jump up from Div. II in recent years, Merrimack was not allowed to make the NCAA Tournament for their first few seasons. Last season, they beat Fairleigh Dickinson in the NEC title game but weren’t allowed in the Big Dance due to the rule, which allowed Dickinson to steal a spot and wind up beating none other than that Purdue team just above.

(2) FAU vs. (15) Morehead State

Purdue isn’t the only program that picked up a win over Arizona over the holidays. On Dec. 23, FAU put the nation on notice with a 96-95 win over the Wildcats in double overtime. The win was a significant boost to FAU’s resumé, pushing it from a four-seed to a two-seed in Lunardi’s eyes.

FAU is talented, but it isn’t impervious to upsets. The team lost to a subpar Bryant squad earlier this year and dropped a game to Illinois in early December. Morehead State would provide another sneaky threat to FAU. The Eagles won the OVC Championship last season and are the favorites to repeat with talented threats such as Riley Minix and Dieonte Miles.

(3) Clemson vs. (14) Akron

Excluding a loss to Memphis on Dec. 16, Clemson has been rolling this season. The Tigers are 10-1, and likely the best team head coach Brad Brownell has fielded in six seasons at the helm. With three players averaging more than 10 points per game, Clemson has a legitimate chance to steal the ACC crown.

Of course, whoever awaits the Tigers won’t bend the knee. If Akron happens to be that team, Clemson can expect a battle. The Zips are one game away from boasting an undefeated December. Led by double-double machine Enrique Freeman, Akron will be nerve-racking opponents for any high seed in the Big Dance.

(8) Virginia vs. (9) Dayton
(5) Oklahoma vs. (12) Indiana State
(4) Kentucky vs. (13) Indiana
(6) Villanova vs. (11) Michigan State
(7) Ohio State vs. (10) Mississippi State

South Region (Dallas)
(1) Houston vs. Norfolk State/Oral Roberts

There’s excellent defense, and then there’s Houston. The Cougars are on their own level, giving up five fewer points per game than the second-best defense in the nation. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s defensive-oriented approach has paid off.

Houston is one of only three teams in the nation that are still undefeated. Yet, with conference play just around the corner, the Cougars’ spotless record will be put to the test. It’s a necessary challenge. If Houston can’t handle its Big 12 opponents, it certainly can’t deal with a 16-seed foe.

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Longwood

Tennessee is still in two-seed territory, per Joe Lunardi, but it’s on the edge. The Volunteers suffered a three-game swoon back in November, dropping the final two contests of their Maui Invitational run vs. Purdue and Kansas before going on the road in the ACC-SEC Challenge to lose to a North Carolina team that went nuclear.

Despite the team’s three-game setback, the Volunteers are catching fire at the perfect time. Tennessee is on a five-game win streak, most recently defeating Tarleton State in blowout fashion. On Jan. 6, the Volunteers will have a chance to add to their resumé with a win over undefeated Ole Miss.

(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Samford

Wisconsin has had a tumultuous season, but the bumps have landed them at a 3-seed, per Lunardi. The Badgers began the season with two early losses against Tennessee and Providence. Nonetheless, Greg Gard got his team back on the horse with triumphs over No. 24 Virginia and No. 3 Marquette.

Of course, Wisconsin’s good fortune didn’t last long. The Badgers suffered a 25-point loss at the hands of Arizona. Wisconsin’s record is often determined by matchups. The Badgers’ slow style of play can suffocate some teams while others breeze past it. For Wisconsin’s sake, the team can only hope its early matchup in the NCAA Tournament belongs in the former camp.

(8) Colorado vs. (9) Nevada
(5) Auburn vs. (12) Grand Canyon
(4) Duke vs. (13) UC Irvine
(6) Creighton vs. (11) South Carolina
(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Miami

West Region (Los Angeles)
(1) Arizona vs. (16) Marist

Despite losing two of its last three games, Arizona still earned a one-seed spot from Lunardi. On Dec. 16, the Wildcats fell to Purdue. Just seven days later, the team dropped a game to FAU in double overtime. Amid its setbacks, Arizona still has a stunning résumé.

The Wildcats have wins over Duke, Michigan State and Wisconsin. They are still ranked the No. 3 team in the Kenpom Ratings. Arizona’s success is largely due to its dynamic offense, which averages 92.5 points per game, the second-most in the country.

(2) Marquette vs. (15) Weber State

Marquette’s taken a few lumps early on in the year thanks to a hellish schedule that featured a trip to Maui against some of the nation’s elites along with several other marquee non-conference matchups in the continental U.S.

It’s the wins over Kansas, Texas and at Illinois that give the Golden Eagles a pretty strong résumé through Christmas. Evidently, it’s enough to convince Lunardi. Of course, boasting a player like All-American guard Tyler Kolek never hurts, either.

(3) BYU vs. (14) Fort Wayne

The Cougars are pouncing on opponents with more ease than fans have seen since Jimmer Fredette donned BYU Blue. The team is 11-1 and ranked as the No. 4 program in the KenPom Ratings. BYU’s success is largely due to its efficient play.

The Cougars are shooting a ridiculous 59.9% from two-point range this season, the seventh-best in the country. BYU is no slouch from beyond the arc, either, connecting on 37.6% of its attempts from range. BYU isn’t afraid to share the wealth. The Cougars are averaging 22 assists per game this year, the most nationally.

(8) Providence vs. (9) Iowa State
(5) Baylor vs. (12) Princeton
(4) North Carolina vs. (13) UNCW
(6) Texas A&M vs. (11) Texas/Virginia Tech
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) Florida

East Region (Boston)
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Lipscomb

If someone ever offers you odds on Kansas to earn a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and Bill Self is still the head coach, you better ask how much and reach your hand out to shake on it. Because there is no more bankable coach than Self in earning high seeds. Every season, like clockwork, no matter the KU team, the Jayhawks simply amass great wins and avoid bad losses to wind up as a one. 

Kansas has currently earned a one-seed in four of the last six NCAA Tournaments and were the overwhelming favorites to be the No. 1 overall seed the year the tourney was canceled, so make it five of the last seven — and the other two weren’t too far off. With wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn already, they are well on their way to a No. 1.

(2) Uconn vs. (15) Colgate

The defending champs look the part through a couple of months. UCONN lost arguably their three best and most important players off the team last spring but retooled and found a four-man group that’s the face and identity of this team.

Tristen Newton is a big-bodied senior point guard who, this year, can score even better than he distributes. Cam Spencer was an underrated add from Rutgers, who excels at shooting and defense. Alex Karaban is a modern basketball dream, a lengthy forward with a lethal three-point stroke. Finally, Donovan Clingan is an anchor down low. However, if Clingan remains out or one of those four go down, this team takes a big blow, as evidenced by the Seton Hall loss.

(3) Illinois vs. (14) Vermont

If the the Fighting Illini land a No. 3 seed, it would be their best seed-line since the Ayo Dosunmu-led team of 2020-21 that earned a No. 1 but fell to Loyola Chicago in the second round. In fact, a three would mark the Illini’s second-best seed under Brad Underwood — and it would be the program’s third-highest seed since Bill Self was head coach. 

All that to say: the Illini are off to a good start and with impressive wins over Missouri, FAU and Rutgers to prove it. Defensively, these Illini are making life an obstacle course on opposing offenses while still possessing the high-paced three-happy style that Coach Underwood like to run on that end.

(8) Utah vs. (9) Northwestern
(5) Colorado State vs. (12) Liberty
(4) Memphis vs. (13) McNeese State
(6) Alabama vs. (11) New Mexico/Kansas State
(7) Ole Miss vs. (10) James Madison