Evaluating the legitimate College Football Playoff contenders in the ACC, Big 12

With the College Football Playoff expanding in 2024, Andy Staples had Jesse Simonton on Andy Staples On3 to discuss how many teams are capable of winning a championship in that format. That, in turn, led to a discussion about the ACC and the Big 12 and what their odds look like.

Both agreed that most years, this is going to be a discussion between Big Ten and SEC teams. They also think that, between the ACC and the Big 12, it’s the ACC that has a better shot to win a national championship in this format.

“Let’s talk about the ACC and the Big 12 because we’ve only mentioned SEC and Big Ten teams so far,” Andy Staples said. “The supposition is that the national champ will come from one of those two leagues. Perfectly understandable. I think the ACC and the Big 12 are different in this respect, because in the ACC I do think Florida State and Clemson can do this.”

The ultimate reason why Staples feels that Florida State and Clemson are unique from other ACC schools and schools in the Big 12 as it relates to the Playoff is their roster construction. Those are, generally, the more talented teams that have the most depth.

“They can be deep enough. I worry about Clemson for the same reason you do, I don’t think their roster is as efficiently built as everybody else’s because Dabo [Swinney] doesn’t use the Transfer Portal. Florida State is a more efficient roster. It may not have as much top-end talent that you signed out of high school, but they probably have a more functionally talented roster because they’ve been evaluating as they go and changing pieces as they go.”

For his part, Jesse Simonton agrees that Clemson and Florida State have a shot. That’s different from where he believes Big 12 teams currently stand.

“I think they at least have a shot. I don’t think the Big 12, you could make the case of not can they win it, when’s the first time they may even make it to the national championship game? Because when you’re talking about roster, recruiting, talent acquisition, those rosters just don’t have that makeup. None of those teams in the newly formed Big 12 even recruit annually at a Top-25 level and so it’s going to be very difficult.”

In the 2024 recruiting cycle, Texas Tech was the only Big 12 team with a Top-25 class, according to the On3 Industry Ranking. The Red Raiders had the 23rd-ranked class. In that same cycle, three ACC teams had classes in the Top 15, Clemson, Florida State, and Miami. Every other team in the Top 25 was in the Big Ten, SEC, or was Notre Dame.

“You can have an Oklahoma State or a Kansas State that maybe spurs an upset, but can they do that three times? That I don’t foresee,” Simonton said. “So, Clemson and Florida State, they at least have the base there that if the cards come up correct, perhaps they can hit the river or get a full house. I don’t see it for any team in the Big 12. You know, right now at least.”

According to Staples, there is a way around this talent gap for Big 12 teams in the expanded Playoff era. The trick is to have a quarterback that overcomes it for the entire team.

“You would need an ultra-special quarterback. The best quarterbacks in the Big 12 if you think about it, I think established ones, you’ve got Shedeur Sanders, which they’re not gonna have the line of scrimmage players to even come close. I don’t think Colorado will be able to compete for the Big 12 title. Cam Rising at Utah will. You’ve also got Noah Fifita back at Arizona. New coaching staff with Brent Brennan, but they still bring back a lot of players but that’s another one that I wouldn’t necessarily put as someone who can compete game in, game out with the super powers we were talking about,” Staples said.

“I think Avery Johnson at Kansas State has the potential to be the most special of all those quarterbacks when it’s all said and done, but I’m not sure the talent is around him to do that. It’s hard.”

Even with that, Simonton still feels the talent levels aren’t comparable, which is going to make winning consecutive games in the College Football Playoff almost impossible.

“It’s the body blow theory, Andy. You’re only going to have so many dudes at the end of this, and so when you haven’t been recruiting at a comparable level to not even the Ohio State‘s and Georgia‘s, but to the Missouri‘s, Kentucky‘s, and South Carolina‘s, it’s just going to be very difficult for those program to withstand that many games.”