Evaluating which teams can still earn 1-seed in 2025 NCAA Tournament

As February comes to a close and March Madness officially begins with the close of the regular season, conference tournament action is right around the corner before Selection Sunday. The NCAA Tournament selection committee recently provided a glimpse at how they view the top teams in college basketball by ranking the Top 16 overall seeds and giving a glimpse of the potential 1-seeds.

A top seed is worth a lot in the NCAA Tournament, from landing weaker opponents in the early rounds to playing in the preferred destination for traveling fans. Every team in the country is working toward that goal, but only a handful still have the opportunity.

Here is an updated look at which teams are close to securing their spot as a 1-seed in March, and which teams still have a runway to reach the remaining spot among the elite group this season.

Looks like a 1-seed lock

Auburn, Duke

One team has separated itself from the pack in college basketball this season. Auburn looks far enough ahead of its peers to absorb another loss without dropping from the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Duke has created a sub-tier below them.

Auburn boasts a 26-2 overall record, with a college basketball-leading 15-2 record in Quad 1. The Tigers have capitalized on multiple big wins and have a clear eye-test advantage over opponents behind Johni Broome and a veteran group of players who have gelled well to succeed across multiple styles of play.

Duke, meanwhile, has a 25-3 overall record with a 6-3 record in Q1. The Blue Devils have separated from the ACC in a big way, leaving little threat of them taking bad losses that would jeopardize the seeding position. As the battle up top continues, Cooper Flagg also makes his case behind a group of freshmen talents and impact veterans.

These two teams are in very little danger of dropping off the 1-seed line regardless of conference tournament results based on how they have performed to this point in the season. The only thing needed to lock up the top overall seeds is a good close to the regular season.

Has the resume for 1-seed

Alabama, Florida, Houston, Tennessee

The second tier of potential 1-seed candidates has built up plenty of big wins to consider themselves worthy of consideration. However, as evident purely by the number of teams in the category, there are simply too many teams to make everyone fit.

Alabama holds the third 1-seed spot in the most recent Bracketology, holding a 23-5 overall record and a 10-5 record in Q1 opportunities. The Crimson Tide have also passed the eye test on multiple occasions, with more resume-building chances to close the regular season and an outside shot at surpassing at least Duke with a winning streak.

Florida currently sits in the No. 6 overall seed position, according to the latest On3 Bracketology projections. The 5-4 record in Q1 is paired with a 24-4 overall record and big wins over many of the top teams they are competing against with more opportunities ahead.

Houston sits in an interesting position at this point, with a resume good enough for a 1-seed in most years. However, with multiple SEC teams around them, they must hold onto the position and watch results around them to the finish, leaning on the 24-4 overall record and 7-4 record in Q1.

Tennessee joins the conversations with an interesting case, holding a 23-5 overall record and a 9-5 record in Q1. The Volunteers also boast the top defense in college basketball, but the eye test will rely heavily on their ability to sustain offensive production with chances to win head-to-head with rivals.

Any of these teams running the table would likely hold off the teams listed below them. However, the door has been left open for movement on a weekly or even daily basis. Each result proves pivotal as these teams look to create an advantage in a tight race for two spots.

Conference title hopes

Michigan State

This category of teams still has life as a potential 1-seed this season, but likely needs something to shake out the right way above them. Perhaps it means a top team taking a surprise loss, or even a losing streak through the end of the regular season.

Michigan State likely has the most clear path into this conversation as the current Big Ten leader. The ability to run the board to close the regular season and win the conference tournament would surely add plenty to the paper resume. The Spartans already boast a 9-4 record in Q1 with just one loss in Q2.

The disclaimer here — based on the case for both these teams — is that if another SEC contender for a 4-seed or better ran the conference tournament gauntlet, they could easily make a case to shoot up the board and into the 1-seed conversation.

Darkhorse resume

St. John’s

St. John’s has made a strong case for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, accumulating a 25-4 overall record which has been highlighted by a 16-2 run through the Big East with three games to go.

Under Rick Pitino, the Red Storm have quickly turned into one of the best teams in college basketball. That has been backed up in the computer numbers and on the paper resume alike, with a 22-0 record in Q2 through Q4. The 3-4 record in Q1 also includes just one loss since the calendar turned to 2025.

Plenty of other breaks would need to go their way, but St. John’s is the best team in the Big East with a strong resume. Even if they have not faced the same level of competition on a weekly basis, the eye test could prove their most valuable asset.