Execs expect good TV ratings despite CFP semis being on New Year’s Eve

If you haven’t already, pull out your mobile calendar and take a look: Yes, the College Football Playoff semifinals are on New Year’s Eve again. Going out that night? Watching the game? Or both?

It will be the first time since 2016 — and the third time overall — that the semifinals are on New Year’s Eve, which means a renewed discussion about whether it’s prudent to stage a marquee sporting event that night if your goal is to attract the largest possible viewing audience.

New Year’s Eve traditionally is a challenging night to garner big ratings numbers for sports because it’s an evening defined largely by celebrations, out-of-the-house celebrations and away-from-the-TV parties. Few know what it’s like to stage a live game on New Year’s Eve better than Gary Stokan, the CEO and president of the Peach Bowl. The Atlanta-based game has been played on New Year’s Eve 14 times since Stokan assumed his role in 1998.

“The ratings for the CFP semis are going to be huge this year,” Stokan told On3. “Particularly in light of Nielsen now being able to do out-of-home ratings, it adds quite a bit and will be really impactful on New Year’s Eve. Not only will there be a large audience at home, but that’s the night where you’re going to get people watching in a community setting, a bar, or restaurant.”

Nielsen’s plans for out-of-home (OOH) ratings were rolled out in early fall 2020, much to the delight of networks and to the chagrin of ad agencies realizing they soon would pay more for ads now that more viewers were being measured. In August 2020, Fox executive vice president Michael Mulvihill tweeted that for years, the two biggest game-changers in the industry were seen as the coming impact of legalized gambling and out-of- home ratings. He said the out-of-home audience is typically younger, more female and more diverse than the in-home audience. The OOH measurements account not only for bars and restaurants but also for airports, gyms and hotels. Industry sources said the OOH measurement can boost a ratings figure by up to 10 percent.

What will this mean for the ratings for the New Year’s Eve games featuring Alabama against Cincinnati and Georgia against Michigan? On two other occasions in the seven-year existence of the CFP, the semifinals were played on New Year’s Eve. The viewership for those four games ranged from a low of 15.6 million in 2015 for Clemson-Oklahoma to a high of 19.3 million the following year for Alabama-Washington in what served as that year’s Peach Bowl, according to Sports Media Watch. 

The red flag was the 15.6 for Clemson-Oklahoma on December 31, 2015, which was a Thursday. No CFP semifinal has garnered such a small, relatively speaking, number and it stood out in stark contrast to the viewership numbers for the first installment of the playoff the previous year: 28.1 million for Florida State-Oregon and 28.3 million for Ohio State-Alabama, two games played on New Year’s Day. 

The CFP initially had hoped to make New Year’s Eve semifinals a tradition for millions, much like it has been to watch the ball drop in New York’s Times Square. But in the summer of 2016, the management committee reversed course after ESPN presented the committee with data showing that the New Year’s Eve time slot contributed heavily to the ratings drop. 

As a result, the move was made to stage the semifinals on a holiday or a Saturday, so the doubleheader wouldn’t conflict with the work schedule of millions nationwide. This year, New Year’s Eve falls on a Friday, and on a national holiday. Next year, the games again will be played on New Year’s Eve, which is a Saturday. That’s the final time the semifinals will be played on December 31 under the current contract with ESPN, which expires after the 2025 season.

It should be underscored that those high viewership numbers from 2014 still stand as the largest viewing audiences for CFP semifinals, reflecting the broad interest level in a new four-team tournament, a novelty. What also should be noted is that none of the four semifinals played on New Year’s Eve have been close. The scores: 38-0, 37-17, 24-7, 31-0.

A competitive game that possesses at least some drama matters when it comes to maintaining an audience, especially on New Year’s Eve. While Cincinnati may not offer the recognizable brand name of usual CFP participants, industry sources say what matters more than name recognition is a close game.

“If these are good games,” Stokan said, “they will do 18 to 20 million, which will be in the top-50 viewed broadcasts [for the entire year] of any kind on any network TV or cable TV.”

The high-water mark for viewership for the Peach Bowl occurred on December 31, 2012, when Clemson beat LSU 25-24. An average of 8.6 million viewers tuned in, making it ESPN’s most-viewed non-BCS bowl ever.

“That was the start of Clemson not Clemson-ing anymore,” Stokan said, half-jokingly. “We did well because we were unopposed in prime time. On New Year’s Eve, we were typically the number one ranked non-BCS game on ESPN year in and year out. You want to be unopposed and in prime time to get more eyeballs.”

It’s impossible to know what impact COVID concerns will have on the gathering plans of millions as the calendar turns to 2022. But it’s another factor. Regardless, the CFP gets the stage all to itself New Year’s Eve. Who’s watching?

TV ratings for the CFP semifinals

2020
Game	Ratings	Score
Alabama-Notre Dame	18.9	Alabama, 31-14
Clemson-Ohio State	19.2	Ohio State, 49-28
2019
Game	Ratings	Score
Clemson-Ohio State	21.2	Clemson, 29-23
LSU-Oklahoma	17.2	LSU, 63-28
2018
Game	Ratings	Score
Clemson-Notre Dame	16.8	Clemson, 30-3
Alabama-Oklahoma	19.1	Alabama, 45-34
2017
Game	Ratings	Score
Georgia-Oklahoma	26.9	Georgia, 54-48 (2OT)
Alabama-Clemson	21.5	Alabama, 24-6
2016
Game	Ratings	Score
Alabama-Washington	19.3	Alabama, 24-7
Clemson-Ohio State	19.2	Clemson, 31-0
2015
Game	Ratings	Score
Alabama-Michigan State	18.6	Alabama, 38-0
Clemson-Oklahoma	15.6	Clemson, 37-17
2014
Game	Ratings	Score
Florida State-Oregon	28.1	Oregon, 59-20
Alabama-Ohio State	28.3	Ohio State, 42-35