Field of 64 Projections: Chaotic week shifts NCAA Tournament picture, strengthens bubble

We are down to the final stretch of the regular season in college baseball. Just two weeks remain now, and this past week was chaotic, leading to a shift in the NCAA Tournament picture. The bubble has strengthened in this week’s Field of 64, and there are plenty of changes throughout the field.

On the hosting line, we have one new team as a top 16 overall seed. Further, among the 16 regional hosts, we have three teams that were outside the top eight last week now in a position to host a super regional.

Unsurprisingly, the SEC leads the way in terms of bids, with 14 in this week’s Field of 64. Other conferences with multiple bids are the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Sun Belt (3) and Big West (2). Hosting-wise, the SEC makes up 7 of the top 16 seeds. They are followed by the ACC (3), Big 12 (1), Big Ten (1), Big West (1), Conference USA (1), and Sun Belt (1).

The full NCAA Tournament field will be announced on Monday, May 26. Before then, we have two more pivotal weeks in the regular season and then conference tournaments.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Cincinnati, Michigan, Kentucky, Kansas State
First Four Out: Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Xavier
Next Four Out: Southeastern Louisiana, Kennesaw State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic

The bubble looks quite a bit different this week. Cincinnati and Michigan both slide up onto the right side of it, while Kansas State remains as the final team in. Kentucky also slides down to one of the last teams in after being swept by Mississippi State. The Wildcats (both Kentucky and Kansas State) are in serious danger, and a strengthening bubble will only make it tougher.

Western Kentucky gets squeezed out this week, but remains firmly in contention. They’d benefit from help around them, as would Xavier. As for Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, they are trending in different directions. Notre Dame has played their way onto the bubble, and is within striking distance. Virginia Tech is playing their way out of the tournament, and might not have enough to stay in the mix right now.

Southeastern Louisiana, Kennesaw State and FAU are right on the verge of the bubble, and their RPI is close to being in range. Virginia is a bit behind due to RPI right now, but a strong finish could force them back in.

* denotes automatic qualifier for conference champions

Austin Regional

1. Texas (1)*
2. UTSA*
3. Iowa
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Even after being swept by Arkansas over the weekend, Texas holds onto the top overall seed this week. The Longhorns are still No. 2 in RPI, 38-8 overall and hold a two-game lead in the SEC at 19-5. It would take another bad week for them to fall out of the top spot. UTSA is a sneaky 2-seed as well, and if their RPI holds where it is, could have an outside chance at hosting themselves.

Irvine Regional

1. UC Irvine (16)*
2. Oregon
3. Arizona State
4. New Mexico*

UC Irvine suffered a setback over the weekend, dropping two out of three against UC San Diego. The Anteaters are 34-11, 20-4 in Big West play and No. 18 in RPI, but have zero margin for error left. With series remaining at Cal State Bakersfield (RPI 256) and vs. Cal State Fullerton (RPI 138), any further setback will knock UC Irvine out of the hosting race. A team that’s right on their heels to host is Oregon, who finishes just short of the top 16 seeds in this week’s Field of 64.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (2)
2. Georgia Tech
3. Fairfield*
4. Long Island*

For the second week in a row, Georgia comes in as our No. 2 overall seed behind Texas. The Bulldogs are 39-11 overall, 15-9 in SEC play and No. 1 in RPI. If Texas stumbles again, Georgia is right on their heels for the top overall seed. For now, though, they fall just behind but are feeling extremely secure as a top eight seed.

Dallas Regional

1. Dallas Baptist (15)*
2. Alabama
3. Kansas
4. Tennessee Tech*

Dallas Baptist has played great baseball down the stretch, and are firmly in the mix to host a regional. This week, they come in as the No. 15 seed in our Field of 64, thanks to a 33-13 overall record, including 16-5 in Conference USA play. The Patriots are also No. 19 in RPI, in range to host. Alabama could also still figure into the hosting mix, and are currently No. 13 in RPI. They’ll need to finish strong, which won’t be easy against Georgia and at Florida.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (3)*
2. Florida
3. UConn
4. Bryant*

Florida State took the series over Clemson over the weekend, improving to 33-10 overall, 14-7 in the ACC and No. 6 in RPI. The Seminoles are feeling good at this point about hosting as a top eight seed, although the final weekend of the season against UNC could determine which ACC team is the highest seed. Florida has surged back onto the 2-line, up to 33-16, 11-13 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (14)
2. TCU
3. Michigan
4. Columbia*

All of a sudden, Tennessee is in serious danger of falling out of the hosting picture, though they hold on in this week’s Field of 64. The Vols have lost three straight series and four of their last five weekends, now at 37-11 overall, 14-10 in the SEC and No. 14 in RPI. If that trend continues in the final two weeks against Vanderbilt and at Arkansas, Tennessee could very well end up on the 2-line. TCU is still in contention to host as well, and could benefit by a team like Tennessee dropping.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (4)
2. Louisville
3. UTRGV*
4. Holy Cross*

Although they entered last week having lost three straight series, Arkansas bounced back in a big way with a series sweep against top-ranked and top-seeded Texas. The Razorbacks are up to 40-9 overall, 17-7 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI, and are back to feeling pretty strong as a top eight host. They finish at LSU and vs. Tennessee, though, so they haven’t secured a top eight seed up just yet, though it’d be surprising if they don’t host.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (13)
2. Arizona
3. Kentucky
4. San Diego*

Oregon State has been on a bit of a rollercoaster as of late, entering Monday having lost five of their last seven games. Still, the Beavers are 34-12 on the season and No. 10 in RPI, feeling pretty good as a regional host. With series remaining against Iowa (RPI 66) and Long Beach State (RPI 181), things could get dicey if they keep stumbling. Arizona is another team that’s playing into the hosting race, if they can keep their RPI (currently No. 23) in range.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (5)
2. Miami
3. Northeastern*
4. Oral Roberts*

Auburn continues to trend upwards, now 33-15 overall, 13-11 in the SEC and No. 4 in RPI after taking the series at Tennessee over the weekend. They’re currently a hosting lock and feeling secure as a top eight, though things could still change. They get a red-hot Miami team in this regional, and while the Hurricanes are a bit behind the hosting race, they could sneak into the conversation if they wint he ACC regular season.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (12)*
2. Cal Poly
3. Mississippi State
4. Sacramento State*

UCLA enters the week trailing Iowa by 2.5 games in the Big Ten standings, but with a legitimate chance to catch them. The Bruins, even without the Big Ten title, feel pretty safe as a host at this point. UCLA is 34-13 overall and 17-7 in the Big Ten with RPI sitting at No. 11, but currently only have a 3-7 Q1 record, which could be their biggest limiting factor in the hosting race.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (6)
2. Ole Miss
3. ETSU*
4. George Mason*

North Carolina was off over the weekend, and currently sit 35-10 overall, 15-9 in the ACC and No. 9 in RPI. While they move down a couple spots in this week’s FIeld of 64, the Tar Heels are in a good spot to host and currently feel good as a top eight seed. They are greeted by Ole Miss, who have lost three out of their last four series but still are in the hosting mix thanks to their No. 17 RPI, being 33-15 overall and 13-11 in the SEC.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (11)*
2. Oklahoma
3. Troy
4. Wright State*

West Virginia remains in a good position atop the Big 12, and in the hosting race. The Mountaineers are 29-7 overall, 18-4 in Big 12 play and No. 20 in RPI, which would be in range to host and likely as a top 12 seed as things currently stand. If they do stumble down the stretch and the RPI falls out of range, they could be left out of the hosting race, and a team like Oklahoma is still battling to get back in the picture.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (7)
2. Southern Miss
3. Kansas State
4. Austin Peay*

Clemson fell to Florida State over the weekend, but they remain as a top eight seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Tigers are 37-12 overall, 14-10 in ACC play and No. 7 in RPI, feeling secure as a host but not so much as a top eight seed. Clems is just 5-8 in Q1 games, which could limit their upside in terms of seeding, though they’re likely fine as a top 16 seed.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (10)*
2. NC State
3. Texas A&M
4. High Point*

Coastal Carolina continues to control the Sun Belt, now 37-11 overall, 20-4 in Sun Belt play, and No. 12 in RPI. The Chanticleers are a hosting lock at this point, and are still in the mix for a top eight seed, though they’d need some help. NC State was hosting in last week’s projections, but the Wolfpack’s weekend against Miami has dropped them, and brought their RPI all the way down to No. 36. Texas A&M also slots in here, as their up-and-down season continues after defeating LSU in their series.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (8)
2. USC
3. Duke
4. Kent State*

Vanderbilt stormed back on Sunday to take the series against Alabama, and it launched them into the top eight in this week’s Field of 64. The Commodores are 34-14 overall, 14-10 in SEC play and No. 3 in RPI, also tied for second in Q1 wins with 13. While they are secure as a host more than likely, how they fare down the stretch at Tennessee and vs. Kentucky will determine if they hold onto the top eight.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (9)
2. Wake Forest
3. Cincinnati
4. Murray State*

LSU’s series loss against Texas A&M has set them back a little bit, though they still feel good as a host right now. The Tigers are 38-11 overall, 15-9 in the SEC and No. 8 in RPI, coming in as our No. 9 overall seed this week. They are certainly capable of getting back into the top eight, though. This regional also features Cincinnati, who soars into the NCAA Tournament field.