Field of 64 Projections: Hosting line, bubble take shape ahead of top 16 reveal

Conference tournament week has been full of upsets. Bids have been stolen, the hosting line has been impacted, and the NCAA Tournament picture has undergone changes since last week. Ahead of the reveal of the 16 regional host sites on Sunday night, it’s time to update out Field of 64 Projections.

Entering Sunday, it seems likely that there are as many as 18-19 teams in play to host a regional. Ultimately, East Carolina dropped out of the hosting line in our May 26 projections, with Mississippi State the next most notable cut. Duke earned the final hosting spot by going on a run to the ACC Championship, and they could lock that spot up by winning later today.

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Of the 16 hosts, six of them come from the ACC. Five are from the SEC, with two from the Big 12, and one each from the Pac-12, Missouri Valley, and Big West.

Here is a full look at our latest Field of 64 Projections entering Sunday, May 26. The 16 hosts will be announced on Sunday evening with the full NCAA Tournament field being unveiled on Monday.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Indiana, Kansas State, James Madison, Northeastern
First Four Out: Coastal Carolina, Charleston, Georgia Southern, Florida
Next Four Out: Troy, California, Cincinnati, Kansas

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (1)*
2. Southern Miss
3. Nicholls*
4. Oral Roberts*

After losing its first game of the SEC Tournament, Tennessee has bounced back with three straight wins and a fourth on Sunday would win them the SEC Tournament title. Even if they don’t win, the Vols feel like a safe bet to be the top overall seed when the field is announced. They are welcomed in Knoxville by Southern Miss, Nicholls and Oral Roberts.

Durham Regional

1. Duke (16)
2. East Carolina
3. UConn
4. Evansville*

Duke swept Pool C in the ACC Tournament, defeating Virginia Tech and NC State. They then came back to defeat Miami in the semifinal, and will face Florida State with the title on the line on Sunday. If Duke wins, they could easily lock up the final hosting bid. Even if they lose, they could get the nod. They do in today’s Field of 64. They have another hosting contender joining them in Durham in East Carolina, in addition to UConn and Evansville.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (2)
2. Louisiana
3. Wofford*
4. Grambling State*

Although they failed to win their pool and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina should finish as a top three seed. They have a pretty compelling case for the No. 2 seed, and that’s where we have them slotting in. Thay are joined in Chapel Hill by Louisiana, Wofford and Grambling State.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (15)
2. San Diego*
3. Kansas State
4. Grand Canyon*

Oregon State is not completely safe as a host. The Beavers went 1-1 in the Pac-12 Tournament, and without a regular season or tournament title in the league, will they be punished? Especially with UC Santa Barbara also slated to host, the Beavers could fall to the 2-line. Today, though, they get the nod. Also in Corvallis is San Diego, Kansas State and Grand Canyon.

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (3)
2. Texas
3. St. John’s
4. Northern Kentucky*

Kentucky went 1-2 in Hoover, but despite an earlier exit than expected in the SEC Tournament, they should be a top four seed. In today’s Field of 64, they slot in at No. 3 though they could finish anywhere from No. 2 – No. 4. The Wildcats are met by Texas, St. John’s and Northern Kentucky in the Lexington Regional.

Terre Haute Regional

1. Indiana State (14)
2. Wake Forest
3. Illinois
4. Western Michigan*

Like Oregon State, Indiana State might not be as safe as a host as most believe them to be. Even with a top ten RPI, the Sycamores’ resume is light and they didn’t win the Missouri Valley Tournament. Still, Indiana State is in the mix and they got the nod as our No. 14 seed on Sunday. Wake Forest, Illinois and Western Michigan round out the Terre Haute Regional.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (4)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Northeastern
4. Army*

Texas A&M went 0-2 in the SEC Tournament, likely ending their chances at the top overall seed. Still, with RPI at No. 2, they will be a top five seed. The Aggies come in at No. 4 today, and the 3-5 range feels like their range. They are joined in College Station by Dallas Baptist, Northeastern and Army.

Santa Barbara Regional

1. UC Santa Barbara (13)*
2. Arizona
3. Indiana
4. Fresno State*

UC Santa Barbara did not have a conference tournament as the Big West doesn’t have one, but they clinched the regular season conference championship this week after dominating league play. The Guachos feel to be a safe host at this point. Also in Santa Barbara is Arizona, Indiana and Fresno State.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (5)
2. Nebraska*
3. TCU
4. Southeast Missouri*

It wouldn’t be a complete shock if Arkansas falls just outside of the top five overall seeds after going 0-2 Hoover. Still, they come in at No. 5 in today’s Field of 64 projections. The Razorbacks sit at No. 5 in RPI. If they aren’t in the top five, they likely won’t fall any further than No. 6. Joining them in the Fayetteville Regional is Nebraska, TCU and Southeast Missouri.

Raleigh Regional

1. NC State (12)
2. Mississippi State
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Bryant*

NC State had a chance to sneak into the top eight conversation, but fell short after going 1-1 in their pool and not reaching the semifinals in the ACC Tournament. Still, the Wolfpack feel like a safe bet to host and should fall somewhere in the 11-13 range. Joining them in the Raleigh Regional is another potential host in Mississippi State, in addition to UNC Wilmington and Bryant.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (6)
2. LSU
3. James Madison
4. High Point*

At this point, it feels like Clemson is going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 overall seed. Heading into Sunday, we have them at No. 6. The Tigers did not make it out of their pool in the ACC Tournament, but their status as a top eight seed isn’t in question. They are joined in the Clemson Regional by LSU, James Madison and High Point.

Stillwater Regional

1. Oklahoma State (11)*
2. Vanderbilt
3. Oregon
4. Niagara*

Oklahoma State was a projected host coming into this week, but they erased any doubts by going on an impressive run to win the Big 12 Tournament. They are likely just a step below of being a top ten overall seed, and come in at No. 11 coming into today. The Cowboys welcome Vanderbilt, Oregon and Niagara in the Stillwater Regional.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (7)
2. Louisiana Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. Sacred Heart*

Georgia is a likely top eight overall seed at this point, and feel likely to land somewhere in the 6-8 range. The Bulldogs went one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, but they still seem to be a good bet to finish in the top eight. If they don’t, they won’t be far outside. Also in the Athens Regional is Louisiana Tech, Georgia Tech and Sacred Heart.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (10)
2. West Virginia
3. VCU*
4. Penn*

Virginia went 1-1 in the ACC Tournament and didn’t make it out of their pool, but they are a safe host and should finish in the 9-12 range. They are likely just a step behind the other top eight contenders. They are joined in the Charlottesville Regional by West Virginia, VCU and Penn.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (8)
2. South Carolina
3. UCF
4. Stetson*

Florida State has had a great week, currently 3-0 and gearing up for the ACC Tournament Championship against Duke. Win and the Seminoles are almost assured to be inside the top eight. Lose, and they still could get there but could fall just outside to No. 9 or 10. Either way, they come in as our final top eight seed in today’s Field of 64. Joining them in Tallahassee is South Carolina, UCF and Stetson.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (9)
2. UC Irvine
3. Alabama
4. Tulane*

If Oklahoma would have won the Big 12 Tournament, it would have been tough to deny them a top eight seed. A dominating regular season title and losing in the championship game still isn’t bad by any means, though. Ultimately, the Sooners finish as our No. 9 seed today. They are joined in the Norman Regional by Oklahoma, UC Irvine, Alabama and Tulane.