Field of 64 Projections: NCAA Tournament picture takes shape as postseason nears

College baseball’s regular season is almost over, as this week is the final before conference tournaments get underway. After a wild weekend with a ton of upsets across the nation, we have released our updated Field of 64 projections with some big changes throughout.

While we have just one new host in this week’s projections, the rest of the hosting line has been seriously shuffled. UC Santa Barbara is a new host this week, with Duke falling out. In the top eight, no team is in the same spot that they were last week. We also have a new No. 1, with Kentucky jumping into the top overall seed.

Nine D1Baseball ranked teams lost their series this past weekend. Upsets played a big role throughout the week, and the rest of our Field of 64 looks a bit different as a result.

Here is a full look at our projected field this week, beginning with the bubble before diving into each regional.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble watch

Last Four In: Coastal Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UCF
First Four Out: James Madison, Northeastern, Indiana, Ole Miss
Next Four Out: Florida, LSU, Utah, Cincinnati

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (1)*
2. Louisiana Tech
3. UNC Greensboro*
4. North Dakota State*

Kentucky’s series win at Florida put them at 20-7 in the SEC, good for sole possession of first place in league standings. The Wildcats finish the regular season at home against a struggling Vanderbilt team, and could very easily wind up as the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament if they take care of business. Kentucky is joined by Louisiana Tech, UNC Greensboro and North Dakota State in the Lexington Regional.

Santa Barbara Regional

1. UC Santa Barbara (16)*
2. Arizona
3. Vanderbilt
4. Saint Louis*

UC Santa Barbara is our lone new host this week, though they’ve been in the mix for a while now. Currently 35-12 and 20-4 in the Big West, they should win that league and be in a good position to host so long as their RPI stays around the top 16 range. Right now it’s at No. 19, and good enough to get the nod as our final host. They are joined by Arizona, Vanderbilt and Saint Louis.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (2)
2. Oregon
3. Virginia Tech
4. New Mexico*

Arkansas gets the nod as our No. 2 overall seed, largely due to Texas A&M’s struggles as the two teams gear up to meet this weekend. The Razorbacks are a safe top eight seed, and could still be in contention for the top couple of seeds should they win over the weekend. Arkansas is joined in the Fayetteville Regional by Oregon, Virginia Tech and New Mexico.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (15)
2. South Carolina
3. St. John’s
4. Bryant*

Virginia is firmly on the hosting bubble, but they hold on as the No. 15 seed despite falling in their series to NC State over the weekend. They are 37-14 overall and 15-12 in the ACC, sitting at No. 13 in RPI. They can’t afford to lose this weekend’s series to Virginia Tech, but if they win it they’ll likely be hosting. Virginia is joined in the Charlottesville Regional by South Carolina, St. John’s and Bryant.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (3)*
2. UConn*
3. UCF
4. High Point*

One of the biggest changes in this week’s Field of 64 was North Carolina as our projected ACC winner over Clemson. That has been in consideration for a few weeks, but the Tar Heels now sit in first place in the ACC at 20-7 with a top five RPI. That’s more than deserving of a top three overall seed. Joining UNC in the Chapel Hill Regional is UConn, UCF and High Point.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (14)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Georgia Tech
4. Lamar*

Mississippi State is sitting in a pretty great position right now to host a regional. The Bulldogs, despite losing this weekend’s series at Arkansas, are 33-18 overall, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI. Additionally, and maybe most importantly, they finish the regular season against Missouri. That’s a series they should win, and barring something unexpected, they are sure to host right now. The Bulldogs are joined by Dallas Baptist, Georgia Tech and Lamar in the Starkville Regional.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (4)
2. Southern Miss
3. Illinois*
4. Austin Peay*

Tennessee continues to move up, and the Vols are a serious contender for one of the top overall seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They are 42-10 overall, 19-8 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI. The Vols finish the regular season against South Carolina in a pretty big series, though Tennessee is a safe host and likely safe top eight seed regardless. They are joined in Knoxville by Southern Miss, Illinois and Austin Peay.

Greenville Regional

1. East Carolina (13)*
2. Duke
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Niagara*

ECU is still dealing with a shorthanded pitching staff, and the Pirates are coming off of an 0-4 week that included a sweep at Tulane. They are out of the top eight picture for now in this week’s Field of 64, though they could still sneak back in if they get some help. Currently at 37-13 overall, 16-8 in the AAC and No. 12 in RPI, ECU is still safe as a host as long as they bounce back this week. Also in the Greenville Regional is Duke, UNC Wilmington and Niagara.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (5)
2. Texas
3. Maryland
4. Little Rock*

Texas A&M has lost two series in a row, though could still wind up as the top overall seed if they bounce back and beat Arkansas this weekend. The Aggies are 42-10 overall, 17-10 in the SEC and No. 3 in RPI. Even if they don’t win the series this weekend against the Razorbacks, Texas A&M feels safe as a top eight host. They are joined in College Station by Texas, Maryland and Little Rock.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (12)*
2. NC State
3. Charleston
4. Wright State*

Oklahoma is cruising its way to a regular season Big 12 Championship, and they are rising in the hosting projections. The Sooners are 32-17 overall, 21-6 in the Big 12 and No. 16 in RPI. They finish at Cincinnati this weekend, and winning that series would lock them in as a regional host. The Norman Regional also includes NC State, Charleston and Wright State.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (6)
2. Alabama
3. Troy
4. Florida A&M*

Clemson is no longer our projected ACC winner, but still is a pretty safe top eight seed in this week’s Field of 64 projections. The Tigers are 37-13 overall, 17-10 in the ACC and No. 7 in RPI, and finish the regular season with a home series against Boston College. Also in the Clemson Regional is Alabama, Troy and Florida A&M.

Terre Haute Regional

1. Indiana State (11)*
2. Oklahoma State
3. Xavier
4. Columbia*

Indiana State is our No. 11 overall seed as a safe regional host for yet another week. The Sycamores are 36-11 overall, 19-5 in the Missouri Valley and No. 10 in RPI. They could push for a top eight seed if they get some help, but facing Valparaiso (RPI 232) this weekend won’t help their RPI case. Still, Indiana State is all but locked in as a host right now. They welcome Oklahoma State, Xavier and Columbia to the Terre Haute Regional.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (7)
2. San Diego*
3. Coastal Carolina
4. Sacred Heart*

Georgia is making some serious noise right now, and the Bulldogs’ sweep at South Carolina puts them firmly in the mix for a top eight seed. Currently 38-12 overall, 16-11 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI, it would be surprising to see Georgia not finish as a top eight seed. They finish the regular season at home against Florida, which is a series they should win. The Athens Regional also includes San Diego, Coastal Carolina and Sacred Heart.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (10)
2. Louisiana*
3. Kansas State
4. Bowling Green*

Florida State’s top eight case suffered a setback this week, as the Seminoles lost two out of three at Pitt over the weekend. Still, Florida State is 37-12 overall, 15-11 in the ACC and No. 8 in RPI. They are by no means out of the top eight mix, and they’ll need to win a tough series against Georgia Tech this weekend to get back there. They are joined in the Tallahassee Regional by Louisiana, Kansas State and Bowling Green.

Winston-Salem Regional

1. Wake Forest (8)
2. Nebraska
3. TCU
4. Army*

Wake Forest made a loud statement by sweeping Clemson over the weekend, and it was enough to launch them back into the top eight in this week’s Field of 64. The Demon Deacons are 36-16 overall, 15-12 in the ACC and No. 9 in RPI entering the final week. Their final series at NC State, another hosting contender, won’t be easy, but right now they look like a strong host. They are joined in Winston-Salem by Nebraska, TCU and Army.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (9)*
2. UC Irvine
3. West Virginia
4. Grand Canyon*

Oregon State swept UCLA this past weekend, and currently sit at 39-12 overall, 17-9 in the Pac-12 and No. 14 in RPI. The Beavers end the season on the road at Arizona, and that’s a must-win series for their top eight chances. Oregon State is a safe host right now, but this weekend will surely hold a lot of weight. The Corvallis Regional is rounded out by UC Irvine, West Virginia and Grand Canyon.