Field of 64 Projections: Final edition after reveal of 16 host sites

Conference tournament week is complete, and the automatic qualifiers have been determined for the upcoming NCAA Tournament for college baseball. On Sunday evening, the NCAA announced the 16 regional host sites. Following that announcement, we have updated our Field of 64 projections for the final time ahead of Selection Monday.

While we do not yet know the order of the 16 regional hosts, we will learn that on Monday at 12 noon ET along with the full field. The selection show will be broadcasted on ESPN2. If that reveal goes anything like the host announcement, we’re in for some surprises.

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This year’s field is sure to bring some controversy. We already got some with the 16 hosts, as there were at least two other teams that had a pretty good case to host a regional on their home field. East Carolina (RPI 22) and Arizona (RPI 31) both are hosting, with teams like Duke (RPI 16), Mississippi State (RPI 25), Indiana State (RPI 10) and Dallas Baptist (RPI 17) on the road. On the bubble, there were some notable teams fighting for their lives this week, and not all of them will get in.

For the final time this season, it’s time to take a look at how the full Field of 64 could look when it’s revealed on Monday. Here’s how we expect it to go.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Indiana, Kansas State, James Madison, Northeastern
First Four Out: Coastal Carolina, Charleston, Georgia Southern, Florida
Next Four Out: Troy, California, Cincinnati, Kansas

*denotes automatic qualifier

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (1)*
2. Southern Miss*
3. Nicholls*
4. Oral Roberts*

After losing its first game of the SEC Tournament, Tennessee bounced back with three consecutive wins to reach the championship game. Win or lose, it felt like the Vols would be the top overall seed when the official field is announced on Monday. That’s exactly where they fall after defeating LSU. They are welcomed in Knoxville by Southern Miss, Nicholls and Oral Roberts.

Tucson Regional

1. Arizona (16)*
2. San Diego*
3. Kansas State
4. Grand Canyon*

To say Arizona is a complete shocker as a regional host is an understatement. Still, after winning the Pac-12 regular season and conference tournament titles, the Wildcats, No. 31 in RPI, are a host and we expect them as the No. 16 seed in our final Field of 64. Arizona is joined by San Diego, Kansas State and Grand Canyon in Tucson.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (2)
2. Louisiana
3. Wofford*
4. Grambling State*

Although they failed to win their pool and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina should finish as a top three seed. They have a pretty compelling case for the No. 2 seed, and that’s where we have them slotting in. Thay are joined in Chapel Hill by Louisiana, Wofford and Grambling State.

Greenville Regional

1. East Carolina (15)
2. Duke*
3. UConn
4. Evansville*

Duke swept Pool C in the ACC Tournament, defeating Virginia Tech and NC State. They then came back to defeat Miami in the semifinal, and defeated Florida State to win the tournament. Still, it wasn’t enough for the Blue Devils to host. Instead, Duke is a 2 seed in the Greenville Regional hosted by East Carolina, in addition to UConn and Evansville.

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (3)
2. Texas
3. St. John’s*
4. Northern Kentucky*

Kentucky went 1-2 in Hoover, but despite an earlier exit than expected in the SEC Tournament, they should be a top four seed. In today’s Field of 64, they slot in at No. 3 though they could finish anywhere from No. 2 – No. 4. The Wildcats are met by Texas, St. John’s and Northern Kentucky in the Lexington Regional.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (14)
2. Vanderbilt
3. Illinois
4. Western Michigan*

Oregon State didn’t feel completely safe as a host entering Sunday. The Beavers went 1-1 in the Pac-12 Tournament, and without a regular season or tournament title in the league, and the question was would they be punished? Especially with UC Santa Barbara also slated to host, the Beavers could have fallen to the 2-line. Ultimately, they got the nod as a host. Also in Corvallis is Vanderbilt, Illinois and Western Michigan.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (4)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Northeastern
4. Army*

Texas A&M went 0-2 in the SEC Tournament, likely ending their chances at the top overall seed. Still, with RPI at No. 2, they will be a top five seed. The Aggies come in at No. 4 today, and the 3-5 range feels like their range. They are joined in College Station by Dallas Baptist, Northeastern and Army.

Santa Barbara Regional

1. UC Santa Barbara (13)*
2. Indiana State
3. Oregon
4. Fresno State*

UC Santa Barbara did not have a conference tournament as the Big West doesn’t have one, but they clinched the regular season conference championship this weekend after dominating league play. The Guachos are officially hosting. Also in Santa Barbara is Indiana State, who also was a contender to host, and also Oregon and Fresno State.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (5)
2. Nebraska*
3. TCU
4. Southeast Missouri*

It wouldn’t be a complete shock if Arkansas falls just outside of the top five overall seeds after going 0-2 Hoover. Still, they come in at No. 5 in our final Field of 64. The Razorbacks sit at No. 5 in RPI. If they aren’t in the top five, they likely won’t fall any further than No. 6. Joining them in the Fayetteville Regional is Nebraska, TCU and Southeast Missouri.

Raleigh Regional

1. NC State (12)
2. Mississippi State
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Bryant*

NC State had a chance to sneak into the top eight conversation, but fell short after going 1-1 in their pool and not reaching the semifinals in the ACC Tournament. Still, the Wolfpack did enough to earn a bid to host and should fall somewhere in the 11-13 range. Joining them in the Raleigh Regional is another team that was fighting to host in Mississippi State, in addition to UNC Wilmington and Bryant.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (6)
2. LSU
3. James Madison
4. High Point*

At this point, it feels like Clemson is going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 overall seed. Heading into Selection Monday, we have them at No. 6. The Tigers did not make it out of their pool in the ACC Tournament, but their status as a top eight seed isn’t in question. They are joined in the Clemson Regional by LSU, James Madison and High Point.

Stillwater Regional

1. Oklahoma State (11)*
2. Wake Forest
3. Indiana
4. Niagara*

Oklahoma State was a projected host coming into this week, and they erased any doubts by going on an impressive run to win the Big 12 Tournament. They are likely just a step below of being a top ten overall seed, and come in at No. 11 coming into today. The Cowboys welcome Wake Forest, Indiana and Niagara in the Stillwater Regional.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (7)
2. Louisiana Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. Long Island*

Georgia is a likely top eight overall seed at this point, and feel likely to land somewhere in the 6-8 range. The Bulldogs went one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, but they still seem to be a good bet to finish in the top eight and that’s where they land in our final Field of 64. If they don’t, they won’t be far outside. Also in the Athens Regional is Louisiana Tech, Georgia Tech and Long Island.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (10)
2. West Virginia
3. VCU*
4. Penn*

Virginia went 1-1 in the ACC Tournament and didn’t make it out of their pool, but they are still one of the 16 hosts and should finish in the 9-12 range. They are likely just a step behind the other top eight contenders. They are joined in the Charlottesville Regional by West Virginia, VCU and Penn.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (8)
2. South Carolina
3. UCF
4. Stetson*

Florida State had a great start to the week, starting 3-0 before losing in the ACC Tournament Championship against Duke. Winning would have locked them into the top eight, but we still ultimately expect them to get there even after falling short. They come in as our final top eight seed in our final Field of 64. Joining them in Tallahassee is South Carolina, UCF and Stetson.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (9)
2. UC Irvine
3. Alabama
4. Tulane*

If Oklahoma would have won the Big 12 Tournament, it would have been tough to deny them a top eight seed. A dominating regular season title and losing in the championship game still isn’t bad by any means, though. Ultimately, the Sooners finish as our No. 9 seed entering Selection Monday. They are joined in the Norman Regional by Oklahoma, UC Irvine, Alabama and Tulane.