Field of 64 Projections: NCAA Tournament picture shaken up entering final month

With the regular season winding down in college baseball, the NCAA Tournament picture is growing more clear by the day. After a crazy week full of upsets, our Field of 64 projections have been updated with quite a bit of movement.

Unsurprisingly, the SEC leads the way with 13 bids, followed by the ACC with 10. Other multi-bid leagues are the Big 12 (6), Big Ten (4), Big West (3), Sun Belt (3), and Conference USA (2).

On the hosting line, the SEC makes up five of the top eight, and eight of the top 16 overall seeds. The ACC has three hosts, while the Big 12 has two. The remaining hosts come from the Big West, Sun Belt, and an independent.

Just four weeks remain until the regular season ends, and what happens over the final few weeks will drastically change how the ultimate NCAA Tournament looks. But for now, it’s shaping up to be quite a race to the finish. The full NCAA Tournament field will be announced on Monday, May 26.

Field of 64: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: USC, Florida, Kansas State, UC Santa Barbara
First Four Out: McNeese, UConn, Mississippi State, Hawaii
Next Four Out: Southeastern Louisiana, South Florida, Creighton, Florida Atlantic

USC leads the way as one of our last teams in, but the Trojans are somewhat comfortable, at least compared to the rest of the bubble. Florida is in a similar boat, but at 6-12 in the SEC, they must find a way to get to 12-13 SEC wins to get in. Kansas State’s 0-5 week was a disaster, but for now, they’re still in. They have work to do down the stretch, as does UC Santa Barbara, who is trending in the right direction and back in the field.

McNeese’s fate could come down to its weekend series against UTRGV. The resume will be light for at-large consideration, but if the RPI can hold in the 30s, they’ll have a chance. UConn has played their way into consideration, like Southeastern Louisiana. Mississippi State will likely have the RPI to warrant consideration, but will the SEC really get 14 bids? Whether or not it does could make or break teams like Hawaii, USF and FAU, who are clinging onto the bubble and hoping to get some help.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (1)*
2. UTSA*
3. UTRGV*
4. Bethune-Cookman*

There is no new top overall seed this week. That honor still belongs to Texas, who improved to 33-5 overall, 16-2 in the SEC, and No. 2 in RPI. If the Longhorns go on to win the SEC regular season, they are likely to be the top seed. They also have a big resume boost with a 14-3 Q1 record, the most Q1 wins in the country at this point.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (16)
2. Kansas
3. Southern Miss
4. Ball State*

Texas vs. Oklahoma would be a fun potential Super Regional matchup, wouldn’t it? The Sooners move back into hosting territory in this week’s Field of 64, currently 29-10, 10-8 in the SEC, and No. 19 in RPI. Kansas is another sneaky hosting contender, sitting 31-10 overall and 12-6 in the Big Ten. Their RPI (currently No. 29) will need some work, but if they go on a run down the stretch, that should take care of itself.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (2)*
2. Troy
3. Fairfield*
4. Navy*

Clemson holds firm as our projected ACC champion, sitting at 35-7 overall, 13-5 in ACC play and No. 7 in RPI. If the Tigers do ultimately win the ACC, it’d be surprise to see them as anything other than a top three seed. Due to the turmoil around this part of the rankings this week, Clemson moves up to our No. 2 overall seed.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (15)
2. TCU
3. Duke
4. High Point*

Even after being swept against Texas this past weekend, Auburn is in a good position to host a regional and do so in our Field of 64. The Tigers are 27-13 overall, 9-9 in the SEC and No. 4 in RPI. They are also 11-9 in Q1 games with the No. 1 strength of schedule, a resume more than worthy of hosting. TCU stumbled this week with a series loss to UCF, but the Horned Frogs are still in the hosting mix themselves with a top 15 RPI.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (3)
2. NC State
3. East Tennessee State*
4. Maine*

LSU has been a bit up and down in our projections in recent weeks, but they’re back up to No. 3 overall this week thanks to their strong weekend paired with losses around them. The Tigers are 34-7 overall, 12-6 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI, and if they keep this pace, they’ll surely be in the top eight. LSU gets NC State as a 2-seed, a team that’s on the rise and could potentially sneak into the hosting race eventually if they get some help.

Tucson Regional

1. Arizona (14)
2. UCLA
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. Grand Canyon*

Arizona is no longer our projected Big 12 champion, but they are still hosting in this week’s Field of 64. They are 28-11, 12-6 in the Big 12, and No. 16 in RPI, currently 7-7 in Q1 games. The Big 12 is going to be an intriguing fight to the end, and if Arizona stays in the hunt, they’ll be in the hosting mix. Another legitimate hosting candidate is UCLA, who falls out this week. Simply put, UCLA is no longer our projected Big Ten champion, and without winning the league, they’ll likely need some help to finish as a host.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (4)
2. Western Kentucky*
3. Miami
4. Missouri State*

Arkansas has lost back-to-back SEC series, but the Razorbacks are still 34-7, 13-5 in the SEC, No. 5 in RPI, and a comfortable top eight seed. They’ll need to get back on track in the final weeks of the season, but Arkansas still looks comfortable as a top eight, and a lock to host. Maybe the most intriguing addition to this week’s field is Miami, who just swept a red-hot Georgia Tech team. The Hurricanes are now comfortably in, and above the bubble.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (13)
2. Louisville
3. USC
4. Rhode Island*

Seeming somewhat out of the hosting discussion just a couple weeks ago, Vanderbilt is surging now. The Commodores are 30-10 overall, 11-7 in the SEC, No. 3 in RPI, and are 13-8 in Q1 games. The remaining SEC schedule will be difficult, but if Vanderbilt keeps finding ways to win, they’re a sure bet to host right now with a legitimate chance to rise into the top eight.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (5)
2. Iowa
3. Xavier*
4. Southeast Missouri*

Tennessee took a step back this weekend by losing a series to Kentucky, but the Vols are still in good shape to host as a top eight. At 33-7 overall, 12-6 in the SEC, No. 12 in RPI and 12-2 in Q1 games, Tennessee is still comfortable. They get a team that’s making a lot of teams uncomfortable in Iowa, who has taken control of the Big Ten race, which has shaken things up. The Hawkeyes’ RPI is an issue, but they’re comfortably in right now.

Irvine Regional

1. UC Irvine (12)*
2. Oregon
3. Texas A&M
4. Fresno State*

UC Irvine just continues to dominate the Big West, sitting 28-9 overall, 16-2 in league play, and No. 20 in RPI. The Anteaters don’t have a lot of room for error, but as of today, they’ll definitely host as the winner of the Big West. Joining them is Oregon, who’s on the rise after a series win over UCLA, and Texas A&M, a surging team that could get into the hosting mix themselves if everything continues to go right, as crazy as that would’ve sounded a month ago.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (6)
2. Cal Poly
3. Arizona State
4. Gonzaga*

Now at 30-7 overall and No. 11 in RPI, Oregon State continues to solidify its case as a regional host and a top eight seed. That’s pretty impressive considering they are playing an independent schedule. Cal Poly’s hosting chances took a hit this weekend by losing to UC Santa Barbara, but they could still get into the mix as they’re currently No. 21 in RPI.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (11)*
2. Ole Miss
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oral Roberts*

Not only is West Virginia hosting in this week’s Field of 64, they’re all the way up to the No. 11 overall seed. The Mountaineers are 34-4 overall, 13-3 in the Big 12, and No. 14 in RPI. The resume is currently a little light, which could be reason to pause regarding top eight chances, but if WVU keeps dominating and wins the Big 12, they’re going to have a case. Ole Miss is still in the hosting mix, too, but for now stays on the 2-line.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (7)
2. Dallas Baptist
3. Kentucky
4. Central Connecticut*

Florida State is currently 29-7 overall, 11-4 in the ACC and No. 10 in RPI, also sitting at 8-4 in Q1 games. They have a pretty strong resume, and are locked in as a host right now and top eight feels like it’s in solid shape, too. Dallas Baptist is in the hosting mix itself, but will need to improve its No. 25 RPI and likely win Conference USA to get in the mix.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (10)*
2. Georgia Tech
3. Florida
4. Austin Peay*

Coastal Carolina drops a couple of spots this week in our Field of 64, but still slots in as a lock to host and a strong top eight contender. The Chanticleers are 30-10 overall, 14-4 in the Sun Belt and No. 13 in RPI, with the No. 9 non-conference RPI and No. 19 non-conference strength of schedule. Georgia Tech falls out of the hosting mix after being swept by Miami, but with 14 ACC wins, they still have a shot. Florida comes in as an intriguing 3-seed, too, making this a very fun regional.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (8)
2. Wake Forest
3. Northeastern*
4. Columbia*

Georgia is in the midst of a bit of a stumble, having just been swept by Vanderbilt. Still, the Bulldogs are 33-9, 10-8 in the SEC, 10-7 in Q1 games and moved up to No. 1 in RPI, a resume more than worthy of being a top eight seed. They’ll need to get back on track over the final weeks, but hosting is an essential lock for Georgia. They get a Wake Forest team that’s trending down and a Northeastern team trending up in the projection.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (9)
2. Alabama
3. Kansas State
4. Wright State*

North Carolina has turned itself around, now feeling safe as a host and a legitimate contender to jump into the top eight. At 31-9 overall, 13-8 in the ACC and No. 8 in RPI with the No. 1 non-conference RPI, the Tar Heels are likely to continue moving up in future weeks. In this week’s Field of 64, they get an Alabama team that could still play itself back into the hosting mix, as well as Kansas State, who saw its safety plummet after an 0-5 week.