Field of 64 Projections: New host emerges while bubble heats up

This past weekend has brought some big changes to this week’s NCAA Tournament picture. With just two weeks remaining before conference tournaments get underway in college baseball, we have updated our Field of 64 projections with a new host and an intriguing bubble.

On the hosting line, we have one new team in the top 16. That would be Mississippi State, who’s coming off of a series win over Alabama. They take the place of South Carolina, who was hosting as our No. 11 seed last week.

On the bubble, we have some new faces in a couple of different ways. Most notably, defending national champion LSU has played their way onto the bubble and in our projected Field of 64. The Tigers stunned Texas A&M over the weekend and have now won three weekend series in a row. On the flip side of the bubble, Coastal Carolina has played their way out. The Chanticleers were in the hosting discussion just a couple of weeks ago, but have now lost eight games in a row.

The postseason picture is far from set, with a lot left to determine over the final couple of weeks in the regular season. For now, here’s how our Field of 64 looks.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In: UCF, LSU, Charleston, Illinois
First Four Out: Coastal Carolina, Florida, Maryland, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: James Madison, Texas Tech, Kansas, Cal

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (1)*
2. UConn*
3. Illinois
4. Omaha*

Despite losing their weekend series against LSU, Texas A&M remains in the top overall spot in this week’s Field of 64. The Aggies are 40-8 on the year, 16-8 in the SEC and No. 1 in RPI. The final weekend of the regular season against Arkansas will loom large on the race for the top seed. Also in College Station is UConn, Illinois and Omaha.

Durham Regional

1. Duke (16)
2. South Carolina
3. Oregon
4. Samford*

Duke holds onto the No. 16 overall seed in this week’s projections this week. The Blue Devils didn’t have an ACC series over the weekend, rather playing a Sunday doubleheader against Longwood. Currently sitting at 32-14 overall and 14-10 in ACC play with the No. 22 RPI, Duke needs to keep winning to hold onto hosting, but right now they get the nod. The Durham Regional is a tough one, with South Carolina, Oregon and Samford.

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (2)
2. West Virginia
3. Lamar*
4. Florida A&M*

Kentucky picked up a massive series victory over Arkansas this weekend, and still lead the SEC at this point at 18-6. Also 35-10 overall and No. 2 in RPI, the Wildcats have a legitimate opportunity to be one of the top hosts in this year’s tournament. With remaining weekends at Florida and vs. Vanderbilt, Kentucky has the chance to finish with two more series victories. They are joined in Lexington by West Virginia, Lamar and Florida A&M.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (15)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Kansas State
4. Bowling Green*

Mississippi State is our lone new host in this week’s Field of 64, and the Bulldogs were tough to keep out last week. They couldn’t be denied a hosting spot this week after winning a series against Alabama. The Bulldogs are 32-16 overall and 14-10 in the SEC and currently sit No. 18 in RPI. This weekend will be tough at Arkansas, but finishing vs. Missouri gives Mississippi State a chance to be right there towards the top of the SEC standings. They are joined in Starkville by Dallas Baptist, Kansas State and Bowling Green.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (3)*
2. San Diego*
3. Charleston
4. Presbyterian*

Clemson prevailed over the weekend in a series win over Georgia Tech, putting them at 17 ACC wins and tied at the top of the league standings. The Tigers are 36-10 overall and No. 4 in RPI, and have a legitimate chance to finish as one of the top three seeds. This weekend at Wake Forest is massive, but Clemson looks to be in the driver’s seat for a top four or five seed at the least. Also in the Clemson Regional is San Diego, Charleston and Presbyterian.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (14)*
2. Vanderbilt
3. Southern Miss
4. Columbia*

Oklahoma swept Texas Tech on the road over the weekend, giving them some cushion in the Big 12 standings at 18-6. The Sooners are 29-17 overall and No. 17 in RPI, and finish the year vs. Baylor at Cincinnati. Oklahoma is not given an easy regional in Norman, though, with Vanderbilt, Southern Miss and Columbia projected to join them.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (4)
2. Virginia Tech
3. Louisiana Tech
4. New Mexico*

Despite losing their series over the weekend against Kentucky, Arkansas remains the No. 4 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Razorbacks are still 40-9 overall, 17-7 in the SEC and No. 3 in RPI with remaining weekends vs. Mississippi State and at Texas A&M. It won’t be an easy finish, but Arkansas is still safe to host as a top eight seed. Joining them in Fayetteville is Virginia Tech, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (13)
2. Nebraska*
3. St. John’s
4. Niagara*

Virginia was off this weekend, and they still figure to be in a good position to host right now. Sitting at 35-12 overall, 14-10 in the ACC and No. 12 in RPI, Virginia could finish as an even higher seed with remaining home weekends against NC State and Virginia Tech. They are joined in the Charlottesville Regional by Nebraska, St. John’s and Niagara.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (5)
2. UC Irvine
3. Louisville
4. Army*

Tennessee is ranked No. 1 in this week’s D1Baseball top 25 rankings, but the Vols come in as our No. 5 seed in this week’s Field of 64. Currently 39-9 overall, 17-7 in the SEC and No. 8 in RPI, the path is certainly there for the Vols to host as a top five seed. They finish the year at Vanderbilt and vs. South Carolina, and they seem to be safe for a top eight seed barring something unforeseen down the stretch.

Winston-Salem Regional

1. Wake Forest (12)
2. Arizona
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Wright State*

Wake Forest remains as a host this week after a 5-0 week that included a three-game sweep over Western Carolina over the weekend. The Demon Deacons are 32-16 overall, 12-12 in the ACC and No. 11 in RPI, but have a tough finish to the year with series left vs. Clemson and at NC State. Joining Wake Forest in Winston-Salem is Arizona, UNC Wilmington and Wright State.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (6)
2. Louisiana
3. LSU
4. Austin Peay*

North Carolina did not play this weekend, but remains tied atop the ACC standings at 17-7. The Tar Heels are 35-11 overall and No. 6 in RPI, with remaining weekends against Louisville and at Duke. UNC feels like a safe top eight at this point with potential for even higher. They are joined in Chapel Hill by Louisiana, LSU and Austin Peay.

Terre Haute Regional

1. Indiana State (11)*
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Saint Louis*

Indiana State remains in good position to host, and they are our No. 11 seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Sycamores are 34-10 overall, 17-4 in the Missouri Valley and No. 10 in RPI. Indiana State would like to sweep their remaining weekends against Evansville and Valparaiso to avoid RPI killers, but they still feel safe to host in the end. Also in Terre Haute is Alabama, Texas and Saint Louis in what could be a very fun field.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (7)
2. Troy
3. UCF
4. Little Rock*

Florida State and NC State played just twice this weekend, with the two teams splitting the series. The Seminoles are 35-10 overall, 14-9 in the ACC and No. 7 in RPI, and finish the season at Pitt and vs. Georgia Tech. Florida State is in a great position to host, and right now would be a very safe bet to host in the top eight. They are joined in Tallahassee by Troy, UCF and Little Rock.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (10)*
2. UC Santa Barbara*
3. TCU
4. Grand Canyon*

Oregon State continues to hover around the top ten, and the Beavers are certainly in contention for a top eight seed at 35-12 overall, 14-9 in the Pac-12, but with a No. 15 RPI. The RPI is going to be pivotal, and they need to improve it to get into the top eight. With series left against UCLA and at Arizona, they are a pretty safe bet to host at the very least. Joining them in Corvallis is UC Santa Barbara, TCU and Grand Canyon.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (8)
2. Oklahoma State
3. Northeastern
4. Sacred Heart*

All of a sudden, here comes Georgia. The Bulldogs made a loud statement by sweeping Vanderbilt over the weekend, and now sit at No. 8 overall in this week’s Field of 64. Georgia is 35-12 overall, 13-11 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI. They finish the year at South Carolina and vs. Florida. Also coming to Athens is Oklahoma State, Northeastern and Sacred Heart.

Greenville Regional

1. East Carolina (9)*
2. NC State
3. Utah
4. Bryant*

East Carolina is still very much in the race for a top eight seed, but they finish just short of that in this week’s Field of 64. The Pirates are 37-9 overall, 16-5 in the AAC and No. 9 in RPI. Their biggest issue will be the remaining schedule, with series at Tulane and vs. Rice giving them zero margin of error RPI-wise. Regardless, ECU is an essential lock to host a regional and is joined in Greenville by NC State, Utah and Bryant.