Field of 64 Projections: New No. 1 seed, two new hosts change NCAA Tournament picture

There are just five weeks left in college baseball’s regular season, and the NCAA Tournament picture is becoming more clear by the day. This week’s Field of 64 projections feature plenty of movement, including a new top overall seed for the second straight week, and two new regional hosts.

This past weekend brought a ton of excitement, with five series between two ranked teams. One of them was No. 1 Arkansas at No. 7 Georgia, where the Bulldogs took two out of three to knock the Razorbacks out of the top spot, as Georgia moves up themselves.

Of note, Texas A&M has officially played their way back into our projected Field of 64. Further, the preaseason No. 1 team isn’t even one of our last four teams in.

The full NCAA Tournament field will be announced on Monday, May 26. Regionals begin on Friday, May 30 and the College World Series will get underway on Friday, June 13.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Mississippi State, UC Santa Barbara, Iowa, McNeese
First Four Out: Hawaii, Xavier, South Florida, Florida
Next Four Out: Virginia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Indiana

Mississippi State’s series win against Alabama has them right back on the bubble, and they’re back on the right side of it this week. UC Santa Barbara is in the same boat, as is Iowa. McNeese is the last team in, with an RPI in a good spot but a resume that’s lacking quality wins.

Florida has moved up on the bubble, but a 4-11 SEC record still needs some serious work. The Big Ten is in an interesting place right now, and Michigan and Indiana are within striking distance, though just a bit off. Cincinnati’s series win against Arizona State keeps them right in the mix, too.

*denotes automatic qualifier for conference champions

Austin Regional

1. Texas (1)*
2. UTSA*
3. McNeese
4. Navy*

Texas is No. 3 in RPI, but take over the top overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Longhorns edged out a series win over Kentucky this past weekend, moving them to 29-5 overall and 13-2 in the SEC, first in the league. The Longhorns are one of three teams with double digit Q1 wins. UTSA finds itself staying in-state in this regional, and are joined by McNeese and Navy.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (16)
2. Ole Miss
3. Virginia Tech
4. High Point*

West Virginia is one of our new hosts this week, as the Mountaineers just keep winning. Currently 30-4 on the season and 10-3 in Big 12 play, WVU is certainly within striking distance of hosting with a No. 22 RPI. They are joined here by Ole Miss, who is currently No. 12 in RPI with a 27-9 overall record including 9-6 in SEC play. The Rebels could certainly host themselves, but fall out of the top 16 this week.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (2)
2. Western Kentucky*
3. Iowa
4. Missouri State*

Arkansas falls out of the top overall seed this week, but not far. The Razorbacks still sit No. 1 in RPI, are 32-5 overall and 12-3 in the SEC. Further, their No. 4 non-conference RPI is a strong selling point, and they still feel like an essential lock to host as a top eight seed. Western Kentucky is also surging themselves, as is Iowa.

Irvine Regional

1. UC Irvine (15)*
2. Oregon
3. Arizona State
4. Fairfield*

UC Irvine is currently No. 24 in RPI, but they are having a great year at 25-8 overall and 13-2 in the Big West. While some RPI anchors await, they also face Hawaii (RPI 51) and Cal Poly (RPI 17) over the next two weekends, which could get the RPI in strong position to host. They get a pair of interesting west coast teams in this regional, with Oregon and Arizona.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (3)*
2. Troy
3. St. John’s*
4. Penn*

Clemson continues to sit in the driver’s seat to become a top eight host, now at 33-6 overall, 11-4 in ACC play and No. 6 in RPI. They also have the No. 1 non-conference RPI, a strong selling point that should secure them as a top eight seed barring a collapse. The Tigers get a sneaky tough regional in this Field of 64, though, with Troy, St. John’s and Penn filling out the field.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (14)
2. Oklahoma
3. USC
4. Stetson*

Georgia Tech continues to look more and more like a regional host, sitting at 29-7 overall, 14-4 in ACC play and No. 13 in RPI. The Yellow Jackets are also 10-4 in Q1 games, one of three teams in the nation with double digit Q1 wins. They get another hosting-caliber team in this regional in Oklahoma, while USC and Stetson give this one two more intriguing teams.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (4)
2. Southern Miss
3. East Tennessee State*
4. NJIT*

Despite falling out of the top overall seed last week, Tennessee isn’t out of the running to re-claim that honor by the end of the year. The Vols are 31-5 overall, 11-4 in the SEC and No. 4 in RPI. The Tennessee at Arkansas series to end the regular season could be what the top overall seed comes down to. For now, though, Tennessee comes in at No. 4 as a comfortable top five seed with little chance to fall out of the top eight.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (13)
2. Dallas Baptist
3. Grand Canyon*
4. Wright State*

LSU stumbled over the weekend, being swept at the hands of Auburn. Still, the Tigers are 31-6, 10-5 in the SEC and No. 9 in RPI, comfortably slotting in as a regional host in our Field of 64. Even with a fall from last week’s projections, LSU is sitting in a good spot to host if they take care of business down the stretch. They are met by Dallas Baptist in this regional, another team that’s in contention to host.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (5)
2. NC State
3. UTRGV*
4. Central Connecticut*

Georgia made a statement over the weekend, taking two out of three against top-ranked Arkansas. The Bulldogs are now 32-6, 10-5 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI at this point of the season. Still being the No. 5 overall seed might seem a bit low, but if Georgia keeps winning, they have the resume to be even higher, and could contend for the top overall seed.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (12)
2. TCU
3. Kentucky
4. Tennessee Tech*

North Carolina might be the hottest team in the country, and just dominated in a series sweep over Wake Forest. UNC is now 28-8 overall, 11-7 in the ACC and No. 14 in RPI, with the No. 2 non-conference RPI to boost the resume. They won’t have a ton of margin for error down the stretch, but if they keep winning, they’ll comfortably be hosting. TCU is another sneaky hosting contender, and was one of our final cuts from the hosting line this week.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (6)
2. Kansas State
3. Texas A&M
4. Gonzaga*

Oregon State is coming off of another strong week, improving to 26-7 on the season and rising into the top ten in RPI at No. 10. The Beavers have a tough road as an independent, but right now their resume is certainly top eight caliber. But the story here is Texas A&M, the preseason No. 1 team that fell out of the postseason race just a couple weeks ago. Now, though, the Aggies are in the field as one of the hottest teams in college baseball.

Tucson Regional

1. Arizona (11)*
2. Cal Poly
3. Mississippi State
4. North Dakota State*

Arizona holds their spot as a regional host in this week’s Field of 64, remaining our projected Big 12 champion despite some strong competition behind them. The Wildcats are 25-10 on the year and 10-5 in the Big 12, currenty No. 19 in RPI. Cal Poly is another legitimate contender to host, sitting at 25-9 overall, 14-1 in the Big West and No. 17 in RPI. Mississippi State also re-joins the postseason picture, slotting in as the No. 3 seed in Corvallis.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (7)
2. Wake Forest
3. Northeastern*
4. Florida A&M*

Here comes Auburn. The Tigers swept LSU over the weekend, soaring in this week’s Field of 64 as a top eight seed at No. 7 overall. Auburn is 26-10 overall, 9-6 in the SEC and now No. 5 in RPI, also holding an 11-6 Q1 record. The weekend did a lot for Auburn’s hosting chances, and they’re in a great position with five weeks to go. Wake Forest took a major step back this week after their sweep by UNC, but still slot in as a 2-seed.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (10)
2. Alabama
3. Kansas
4. Ball State*

Florida State is still a strong contender to host as a top eight seed, but for now the Seminoles come in at No. 10. They are 28-7 overall, 11-4 in the ACC and No. 16 in RPI at this point. Hosting feels like a pretty safe bet, with top eight in sight. Alabama is another contender to host, falling out after hosting in last week’s projections. The Crimson Tide are still No. 11 in RPI, with a legitimate chance to sneak back into the top 16.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (8)*
2. Vanderbilt
3. Duke
4. George Mason*

Coastal Carolina is still rising, now 27-9 overall, 11-4 in the Sun Belt and No. 8 in RPI. Sitting at No. 3 in non-conference RPI and No. 21 in non-conference strength of schedule, the Chanticleers will undoubtedly be in top eight range if they go on to win the Sun Belt. Vanderbilt is in an interesting spot at 26-10 overall and 8-7 in the SEC, with a No. 7 RPI. But for now, they feel a little bit off of the hosting discussion.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (9)*
2. Louisville
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. Fresno State*

UCLA took two out of three against Washington, but fall out of the top eight in this week’s projections. The Bruins are 28-7 overall and 12-3 in the Big Ten, and sit at No. 20 in RPI. If they keep winning down the stretch, that RPI should improve. Regardless, they feel to be a very likely host right now, with the potential to host as a top eight.