Field of 64 Projections: Stolen bids, new host headline NCAA Tournament entering Championship Sunday

Tonight, the 16 regional host sites will be announced for the NCAA Tournament. But first, there’s plenty of baseball to be played on championship Sunday and we’ve updated our Field of 64 projections before the action gets underway.

The SEC remains the leader in the clubhouse with 13 bids. They are followed by the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (3), Sun Belt (2), AAC (2), Big West (2) and Conference USA (2) as multiple bid leagues, so far. Of course, more stolen bids could add more conferences into this category.

On the hosting front, the SEC has eight of the top 16 seeds. The remaining hosts come from the ACC (3), Big Ten (2), Big 12 (1), Sun Belt (1) and Independent (1). We do have a new host this week in our latest Field of 64, with Ole Miss slotting in. Entering Sunday, there’s at least one more team that can play there way into hosting a regional, too.

Track every auto-bid given to conference champions by clicking here. The 16 regional host sites will be announced Sunday night at 8:30 p.m. ET, followed by the full selection show on Monday at 12 noon ET.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: UConn, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Arizona State
First Four Out: Cal Poly, Troy, Virginia, Notre Dame

Multiple bids were stolen yesterday, shifting back the bubble by a couple of spots. For the teams on the right side of it, they’re hoping for a clean day with the top seeds winning their conference tournaments. Otherwise, these last four in and others just on the inside are in danger. Cal Poly has played their way into the Big West title game, and that would push the Big West to being a two-bid league, which would of course shuffle up the bubble, too.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (1)*
2. Northeastern*
3. East Tennessee State*
4. Little Rock*

Vanderbilt remains our top overall seed this morning. It really comes down to Vanderbilt and Texas, and given the Commodores are No. 1 in RPI, have 17 Q1 wins, and have the chance to win the SEC Tournament today, they get the nod.

Fort Worth Regional

1. TCU (16)
2. Southern Miss
3. Mississippi State
4. Houston Christian*

TCU is clinging onto our last hosting bid in today’s Field of 64. TCU lost in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday night. They are very much rooting for a Southern Miss loss in the Sun Belt title game on Sunday. If Southern Miss wins that game, they will take control of the final hosting spot.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (2)
2. UTSA
3. Xavier
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Texas comes in just short of the top overall seed, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they end up there, either. The Longhorns are 4 in RPI, but have 17 Q1 wins and won the SEC regular season. Regardless, they won’t fall any further than 2 or 3 in terms of overall seeding.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (15)
2. Georgia Tech
3. USC
4. Fairfield*

Tennessee likely did enough in Hoover to move themselves back into the hosting mix, but it’s still not a guarantee. Their resume warrants it with 14 Q1 wins and sitting at 13 in RPI, but we’ll see what happens around them on Sunday. Georgia Tech is still in contention, too, but after falling in the ACC Tournament semifinals and RPI falling to 22, they drop out of the top 16 in today’s Field of 64.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (3)
2. Duke
3. Creighton
4. North Dakota State*

Arkansas is the other team right there in contention for the top overall seeds. They finished in second place in the SEC regular season with a 20-10 record, and are 14-10 in Q1 games while sitting at 5 in RPI. Even if the Razorbacks aren’t one of the top three seeds, they won’t fall much further, if at all.

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (14)
2. UC Irvine*
3. Oklahoma State
4. Fresno State*

Oregon was looking like a top eight seed yesterday, but their loss in the Big Ten Tournament dropped their RPI down to 17, which might be too low to warrant top eight discussion. The Ducks are 9-1 in Q1 games and 3-1 in Q2 games, which might not be enough meat on the bone to overtake some others in front of them. UC Irvine is still in play as a host, though they’ll need to win the Big West championship today to have a shot.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)*
2. West Virginia
3. Western Kentucky
4. Central Connecticut*

North Carolina remains in play as a top seed, and an ACC Tournament title on Sunday could propel them up as high as 2 or 3. The Tar Heels are 9-5 in Q1 games, 16-5 in Q2 games and currently 7 in RPI, and match up with Clemson on Sunday.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (13)
2. Florida
3. Columbia*
4. Murray State*

Florida State fell just short in the ACC Tournament semifinals on Saturday, but they’re locked into hosting, more than likely. RPI is down to 15, but they are 13-10 in Q1 games and it’d be surprising if they don’t host. Florida isn’t completely out of the discussion either, depending on how the committee views them. The Gators went 15-15 in SEC play and are 12-17 in Q1 games, but also remain top 16 in RPI at 16.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (5)
2. NC State
3. UConn
4. Tulane*

LSU’s RPI dropped a few spots after losing on Saturday in the SEC Tournament semifinals, but it’s still at 12 and the Tigers are in good shape for a top eight seed. In addition to a 19-11 SEC record, LSU has 13 Q1 wins on the year. They are a hosting lock, and are probably locked in as a top eight, as well.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (12)*
2. Arizona*
3. Miami
4. Saint Mary’s*

UCLA is on the rise compared to yesterday’s Field of 64. The Bruins are onto the Big Ten Championship, and have their RPI up to 11. What’s interesting is how the committee will weigh their share of a Big Ten title, a potential tournament title, and just a 3-7 Q1 record. If last year was any indication, the conference titles will be enough.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (6)
2. Kansas
3. Stetson*
4. Bryant*

Like yesterday, Georgia is feeling pretty secure as a top eight seed. The Bulldogs are 2 in RPI, went 18-12 in SEC play, and are 11-11 in Q1 games. It’s interesting to wonder, though, if someone leaps into the top eight, could the Bulldogs’ 11 Q1 wins put them below some of the teams behind them? Still, they are likely safe in the top eight and wouldn’t drop much below.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (11)
2. Dallas Baptist
3. Kansas State
4. Miami (OH)*

Here comes Ole Miss. It was tough to deny the Rebels a hosting bid in recent weeks, but they’ve done enough. They went 16-14 in SEC play, are up to 10 in RPI, have 19 Q1 wins, which leads the nation, and can add a SEC Tournament title to their resume on Sunday. Leaping into the top eight can’t be ruled out.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (7)
2. Louisville
3. Cincinnati
4. Holy Cross*

Like Georgia, Auburn feels good as a top eight seed and is a lock to host. The Tigers went 17-13 in SEC play, and currently sit 3 in RPI with a 16-12 Q1 record. Even if a team like Ole Miss leaps into the top eight, could the Tigers’ 16 Q1 wins compared to Georgia’s 11 keep Auburn in the top eight anyways?

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (10)*
2. Wake Forest
3. Kentucky
4. USC Upstate*

Coastal Carolina just keeps winning. The Chanticleers went 26-4 to win the Sun Belt regular season and are now up to 9 in RPI ahead of the Sun Belt Championship on Sunday. Their 4-5 Q1 record could keep them out of top eight discussion, but if they win the Sun Belt title, they’re a legitimate threat to steal one of the final top eight bids.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (8)
2. Oklahoma
3. Arizona State
4. Utah Valley*

Oregon State is up to the top eight in today’s Field of 64. The Beavers are truly relying on what happens around them this week, since they don’t have a conference tournament to play in. The Beavers went 41-12-1 this season, have an 11-11 Q1 record, and are up to 6 in RPI.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (9)
2. Alabama
3. Rhode Island*
4. Wright State*

All of a sudden, top eight is back in play for Clemson. The Tigers are 10-9 in Q1 games, went 18-12 in ACC play and can add ACC Tournament champions to their resume with a win over North Carolina on Sunday. If they do that, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if they slide in.