Field of 64 Projections: Two hosts emerge as top eight gets shaken up

Four weekends remain before conference tournaments get underway across college baseball, and it’s time to update our Field of 64 projections. From the hosting picture to the bubble, the NCAA Tournament picture is wide open.

We have two new teams hosting this week, as Coastal Carolina and Oklahoma join the top 16 seeds. They are hosting over West Virginia and UC Irvine, who were the No. 15 and No. 16 overall seeds in last week’s projections.

The SEC and ACC lead the way again in this week’s Field of 64 projections. The SEC has nine teams in the NCAA Tournament with five hosting, while the ACC has eight teams in and six hosting. Seven Big 12 teams make the cut, while the Sun Belt and Pac-12 also have four teams each in.

Here is a full look at how our Field of 64 projections look as we prepare for another week of college baseball.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Oregon, Illinois-Chicago, Cal, Utah
First Four Out: Florida, Boston College, Texas, Louisiana Tech
Next Four Out: St. John’s, Maryland, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech

*denotes automatic qualifier

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (1)*
2. Northeastern
3. Illinois*
4. Sacred Heart*

Texas A&M leads the way in our Field of 64 projections for the second consecutive week. The Aggies currently sit at 35-5 overall and 13-5 in the SEC, also holding the No. 1 RPI. The final weekend of the regular season will be important as Texas A&M hosts Arkansas, but right now the Aggies get the nod for the top overall seed. They are joined in the College Station Regional by Northeastern, Illinois and Sacred Heart.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (16)*
2. UC Santa Barbara
3. Southern Miss
4. Western Kentucky*

Vanderbilt nearly fell out of the hosting picture this week, but hang on to the final top 16 seed in this week’s projections. The Commodores currently sit at No. 18 in RPI with a 29-11 overall and 10-8 SEC record. They have a tough remaining schedule as well, but for now, they still bring a regional to Nashville. They are joined by UC Santa Barbara, Southern Miss and Western Kentucky.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (2)
2. Louisiana*
3. Kennesaw State*
4. Saint Louis*

Arkansas certainly has a compelling case for the top overall seed, but they come in at No. 2 for another week. The Razorbacks are 34-6 overall, 14-4 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI. With weekends remaining against Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Texas A&M, they’ll have their opportunity to earn it. Arkansas is joined in the Fayetteville by Louisiana, Kennesaw State and Saint Louis.

Durham Regional

1. Duke (15)
2. South Carolina
3. UCF
4. Samford*

Duke’s RPI is down to No. 21, but they are 29-11 overall and 13-8 in the ACC. With weekends left against Florida State, Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the Blue Devils will have to play well to hold onto a top 16 seed. In this week’s Field of 64 projections, they get the nod and are joined by South Carolina, UCF and Samford in the Durham Regional.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (3)*
2. Mississippi State
3. Lamar*
4. North Dakota State*

Clemson is in a great position to host as a top three overall seed right now. The Tigers are 32-7 overall, 13-5 in the ACC and sit at No. 4 in RPI. At Wake Forest is their toughest weekend remaining, with Georgia Tech, Boston College and Louisville to round out the year. Clemson is essentially locked up as a top five seed as things currently stand, and they are joined by Mississippi State, Lamar and North Dakota State.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (14)*
2. UC Irvine*
3. James Madison
4. Fresno State*

A new Big 12 team has emerged as a potential host for the second consecutive week. Last week, it was Oklahoma State. Now, it’s Oklahoma, who sits atop the Big 12 with a 14-4 league record. The Sooners are currently No. 22 in RPI. They end the year with weekends against Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and Cincinnati, so the path is undoubtedly there if they keep winning. Also in Norman is UC Irvine, who hosted in last week’s projections, as well as James Madison and Fresno State.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (4)
2. Arizona
3. Creighton
4. Tennessee Tech*

Tennessee picked up a massive series win over Kentucky this past weekend, improving to 33-7 overall, 12-6 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI. The Vols end the year against Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt and South Carolina, and should be a top-end host if they take care of business. They are joined in Knoxville by Arizona, Creighton and Tennessee Tech.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (13)
2. Alabama
3. UConn*
4. Bowling Green*

While Virginia is currently No. 16 in RPI, they sit in a pretty good position to host. They are 30-11 overall, 12-9 in the ACC and finish the year with Boston College, NC State and Virginia Tech. That’s a pretty favorable stretch, keeping them as the No. 13 seed. Alabama is also in the Charlottesville Regional, though the Crimson Tide have a legitimate path to hosting themselves. They were right on the cusp in our Field of 64 projections this week. UConn and Bowling Green round out the Charlottesville Regional.

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (5)
2. Virginia Tech
3. Oregon
4. Northern Kentucky*

While Kentucky lost their weekend series to Tennessee, they showed that they are a legitimate contender in college baseball. The Wildcats are 32-7 and 15-3 in the SEC, currently at No. 3 in RPI. Kentucky doesn’t have an easy end to the regular season, but even if they struggle down the stretch, they have a resume that might already have them safe in the top eight. Also in the Lexington Regional is Virginia Tech, Oregon and Northern Kentucky.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (12)
2. NC State
3. Kansas State
4. USC Upstate*

Coastal Carolina slides back into the hosting picture after a huge series win over Louisiana. While the Chanticleers still have some work left to do to win the Sun Belt, they are at the very least back in the discussion to host with RPI sitting at No. 13. They have a sneaky tough regional, with NC State, Kansas State and USC Upstate rounding it out in Conway.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (6)
2. Oklahoma State
3. Cal
4. Florida A&M*

Even after losing their series to Wake Forest, Florida State is in a good position to host and as a high seed. The Seminoles are 31-8 overall, 11-7 in the ACC and No. 5 in RPI. They have Duke and NC State the next two weekends before finishing with Pitt and Georgia Tech. The Tallahassee Regional also includes Oklahoma State, Cal and Florida A&M.

Terre Haute Regional

1. Indiana State (11)*
2. Dallas Baptist
3. TCU
4. Rider*

Indiana State keeps moving up, and the Sycamores are all the way up to the No. 11 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64 projections. They are 29-8 overall, 12-3 in the Missouri Valley and No. 10 in RPI. Indiana State needs to avoid losses at all costs with some poor RPI opponents on the schedule, but right now they are a pretty comfortable host. Dallas Baptist, TCU and Rider are also in Terre Haute.

Greenville Regional

1. East Carolina (7)*
2. Georgia
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Bryant*

East Carolina was outside of the top eight picture last week, but slide back in due to Oregon State and North Carolina losing their series. The Pirates have a head-to-head series win over the Tar Heels, in addition to the No. 2 non-conference RPI, which could come very handy when the field is selected. ECU is joined in Greenville by Georgia, UNC Wilmington and Bryant.

Winston-Salem Regional

1. Wake Forest (10)
2. Texas Tech
3. Illinois-Chicago
4. Columbia*

Wake Forest continues to rise, and now slides into the top ten as a pretty safe bet to host a regional in our Field of 64 projections. The Demon Deacons are currently No. 9 in RPI behind a 26-13 overall record including 11-10 in the ACC. They have opportunities against Clemson and NC State in the final two weeks of the season, which could have them moving up even higher. Texas Tech, Illinois-Chicago and Columbia round out the Winston-Salem Regional.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (8)
2. West Virginia
3. Utah
4. Navy*

UNC dropped their weekend series to NC State, but remains a top eight overall seed for now. The Tar Heels still have good underlying numbers, sitting 30-10 overall, 15-6 in the ACC and No. 7 in RPI. Virginia Tech and Duke are their highest RPI opportunities left on the weekend, and those series will play a big role in UNC’s ultimate position. Also in Chapel Hill is West Virginia, Utah and Navy.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (9)*
2. Nebraska
3. San Diego*
4. California Baptist*

Despite being in the top eight last week, Oregon State falls out in this week’s Field of 64 projections after a 1-4 week that included being swept by Cal. The Beavers are 30-9, 10-7 in the Pac-12 and No. 15 in RPI, but have Oregon and Arizona as part of their remaining schedule in what should be massive series. Oregon State is joined in Corvallis by Nebraska, San Diego and California Baptist.