Field of 64 Projections: Two new hosts spark changes through NCAA Tournament entering final week

We have reached the final week of college baseball’s regular season. There’s still a lot left to play for over the next week and then into conference tournament, but it’s time for this week’s Field of 64 projections.

Things still feel relatively wide open in the NCAA Tournament from the hosting line down through the bubble. Hosting wise, the top 16 seeds are made up of eight SEC teams, followed by the ACC (3), Big Ten (2), Sun Belt (1), Big West (1) and Independent (1). Six of those eight SEC teams are top eight overall seeds.

Overall, the SEC again leads the way with 13 total bids to the Field of 64. The ACC follows with nine, while the Big 12 has seven. Other leagues with multiple bids are the Big Ten (5), Sun Belt (3), Big West (2) and Conference USA (2).

Some conference tournaments will get underway this week, but for the most part, leagues will have their final regular season weekend before tournaments begin next Tuesday. The NCAA Tournament selection show is Monday, May 26.

*denotes automatic qualifier for conference champions

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Iowa, Cincinnati, Cal Poly, Michigan
First Four Out: UTRGV, Xavier, Virginia, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: UC Santa Barbara, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Creighton

Iowa is one of the most confusing teams to grade in this year’s field. The Hawkeyes currently sit atop the Big Ten with a 21-6 league record, but are just 3-2-1 in Q1 games and sit at No. 67 in RPI. If they hold on to win the Big Ten regular season, they’ll be fine. But if they don’t, they might be in danger.

Virginia and Notre Dame are still among the teams fighting to get on the right side of the bubble. They, along with UC Santa Barbara and Oklahoma State, are among quite a few teams who are trending upwards as the regular season neards its end.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (1)*
2. Troy
3. Western Kentucky
4. Central Connecticut State*

Despite back-to-back series losses, Texas remains the top overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Longhorns still sit alone atop the SEC’s standings, are 40-10 overall, 20-7 in conference play and No. 4 in RPI. With a 15-9 Q1 record, Texas still has the strongest overall resume in the country, though they’ll need to finish strong to solidify their spot at the top.

Irvine Regional

1. UC Irvine (16)*
2. Louisville
3. USC
4. San Diego*

UC Irvine remains right on the fringe of the hosting bubble, and gets the nod again as the No. 16 overall seed this week. The Anteaters are 38-11, 23-4 in the Big West and No. 18 in RPI, with a 9-4 Q1 record. What happens over the final week will be extremely important for UC Irvine, especially if their RPI drops any with a home series with Cal State Fullerton (RPI 134) on deck.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (2)
2. Miami
3. Michigan
4. Oral Roberts*

Auburn keeps rising just about every week it seems like, and now they’re all the way up to the No. 2 overall seed. The Tigers are 36-15 overall, 16-11 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI, with a 14-10 Q1 record and the top overall strength of schedule. Auburn isn’t out of the running for the top overall seed, but they feel locked into a top eight seed right now.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (15)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Kansas
4. Tennessee Tech*

Tennessee is in serious danger of falling out of the hosting race, though they hold on in this week’s Field of 64. The Vols are 39-13 overall, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI with a 10-8 Q1 record, but have now lost four series in a row and five of their last six, and if they can’t take their final series against Arkansas, will a team that’s lost six of their last seven series get the nod? If they don’t Dallas Baptist is right on the cusp, and actually dropped out of the top 16 in this week’s projections.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (3)*
2. Southern Miss
3. Iowa
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Florida State continues to sit atop the ACC entering the final week of the regular season, and that would have the Seminoles hosting as a top eight. They’re currently 36-11 overall, 16-8 in the ACC and No. 9 in RPI with an 11-7 Q1 record. The RPI can’t drop too much lower to host as a top three seed, but for now, the Seminoles are in good shape for the top eight and are a lock to host.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (14)
2. Ole Miss
3. Northeastern*
4. High Point*

Clemson is another team that is trending dangerously close to the hosting bubble right now. The Tigers have dropped three straight series, now 38-15 overall, 15-12 in the ACC and No. 14 in RPI, with a 6-10 Q1 record. Clemson can’t afford to lose their final series of the year at Pitt, and a strong showing in the conference tournament would be big to solidify themselves as a host.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (4)
2. UTSA*
3. Kansas State
4. Bryant*

Vanderbilt is again on the rise, now a top four overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Commodores are 36-16 overall, 16-11 in the SEC and No. 3 in RPI, with a 15-14 Q1 record. They are one of two teams currently with 15 Q1 wins. UTSA still feels like they could factor into the hosting discussion too, as they dominated the AAC regular season and are No. 21 in RPI.

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (13)
2. Oklahoma
3. Cal Poly
4. Murray State*

Oregon has been right on the bubble of the hosting picture for a few weeks, and now they’re on the right side of the top 16. The Ducks are 38-13 overall with a 19-8 Big Ten record, currently No. 19 in RPI with a 9-1 Q1 record. They’ll carry a seven-game winning streak to Iowa this weekend, a series that would solidify Oregon as a host if they win.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (5)
2. Duke
3. Cincinnati
4. Holy Cross*

Georgia lost their most recent series to Alabama, and drop a couple spots down to our No. 5 overall seed this week. Still, the Bulldogs are 40-13 overall, 16-11 in the SEC and No. 1 in RPI, with an 11-10 Q1 record. They are locked into a top eight seed with RPI sitting so highly, and with a strong final weekend, could slide back up to the top overall seeds in the tournament.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (12)*
2. Florida
3. UConn*
4. Fairfield*

Coastal Carolina’s great season keeps rolling, as the Chanticleers are 41-11 overall, 23-4 in the Sun Belt and No. 12 in RPI. Their 4-5 Q1 record could limit their ceiling in terms of seeding, but they do currently boast the No. 4 non-conference RPI and No. 14 non-conference strength of schedule. One spot below them in RPI at No. 13 is Florida, who likely aren’t in a position to host, though a sweep against Alabama to end the year could change that.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (6)
2. Georgia Tech
3. Southeastern Louisiana*
4. Columbia*

LSU feels pretty safe as a top eight seed as of right now. The Tigers are 40-12 overall, 17-10 in SEC play and No. 7 in RPI, with a 13-10 Q1 record to give their resume a strong boost. They finish the season at South Carolina, so it’d be surprising to see LSU finish outside of the top eight, and they’re another contender for a top three overall seed.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (11)
2. West Virginia*
3. East Tennessee State*
4. Austin Peay*

Alabama’s series win over Georgia was massive for their hosting chances, and they slide into the top 16 as our No. 11 seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Crimson Tide are 39-13 overall, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 8 in RPI, with a 12-9 Q1 record. If they earn a series win over Florida to end the regular season, top eight becomes a strong possibility, and they’re already in the discussion. West Virginia is still in the mix to host, but their RPI is trending the wrong way. They’re the first or second team off of the top 16 currently.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (7)
2. TCU
3. Kentucky
4. Nevada*

Oregon State has turned in quite the season playing an independent schedule, and they’re in line to host as a top eight, or close to one, right now. The Beavers are 37-12-1 on the year thanks to a tie in Sunday’s finale against Iowa, and are currently No. 6 in RPI. A 5-8 Q1 record could limit them, but right around the middle of the top 16 feels right for them. TCU is still in position to sneak into the hosting mix, depending on what they do the rest of the way.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (10)
2. Arizona
3. Mississippi State
4. Kent State*

North Carolina and NC State didn’t play their finale on Sunday due to weather, and that could end up being a tough break for UNC’s top eight hopes. In this week’s Field of 64, they’re the No. 10 overall seed at 37-11 overall,16-10 in ACC play and No. 11 in RPI. The Tar Heels are 7-5 in Q1 games, and could will likely slide into the top eight if they win their final series at Florida State.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (8)
2. Wake Forest
3. Rhode Island*
4. Wright State*

Arkansas is a curious case right now. They’ve lost four of their last five series, but the series win was two weeks ago when they swept then top-ranked Texas. The Razorbacks are now 41-11 overall, 18-9 in SEC play and No. 5 in RPI with a 12-8 Q1 record, a resume that’s worthy of top eight consideration. But if they can’t win the series against Tennessee to end the regular season, they could fall out of the top eight, though hosting isn’t in danger.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (9)*
2. NC State
3. Arizona State
4. Sacramento State*

UCLA can take control of the Big Ten in the regular season’s final week, and they’re up to No. 9 overall in this week’s Field of 64. The Bruins are 37-14 overall, 20-7 in Big Ten play and No. 10 in RPI. Their 3-7 Q1 record is an argument against them, but if UCLA does win the Big Ten, they’ll be impossible to deny as a host and would have a case for the top eight.