Field of 64 Projections: Upset-heavy weekend leads to chaos entering final stretch

With just three weeks left in the regular season, the postseason picture looks completely different than it did a week ago. In this week’s Field of 64 projections, we have two new hosts and a ton of movement within the top 16, as well as the entire field.

While bids will be stolen during conference tournament week, the NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a fun one right now. The bubble has also shifted fairly significantly over recent weeks, with a lot at stake over the final weeks of the regular season.

In our latest Field of 64, the SEC leads the way with 13 bids. They are followed by the ACC (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (4), Sun Belt (3), Conference USA (2), Big East (2) and Big West (2) with multiple bids. On the hosting line, the SEC also leads the way with seven, including five top eight seeds. The ACC follows with four (two top eights), while the Big West, Big 12, Big Ten and Sun Belt each have one.

The full NCAA Tournament field will be announced on Monday, May 26. After the regular season concludes in three weeks, conference tournaments will get underway.

Field of 64: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Western Kentucky, Kansas State, Arizona State
First Four Out: Mississippi State, UTRGV, Michigan, Virginia
Next Four Out: UC Santa Barbara, Creighton, McNeese, Cincinnati

While they were in the field last week and off the bubble, Texas A&M slides back to one of our final four teams in after being swept by Texas. The Aggies are still in solid shape, but they’ll need to get to 13 SEC wins. Mississippi State also needs to reach that mark, but time is running out.

Western Kentucky has been comfortably in for a while now, even as our projected Conference USA champion, but getting swept by FIU has set them back and knocked their RPI down into the 40s. They’ll need to rebound, but for now, they stay in.

The most noteworthy team on the outside is undoubtedly preseason No. 2 Virginia, who just swept Georgia Tech to get back into the NCAA Tournament mix. They’re not in yet, but with RPI trending upwards into the 70s, they’ll have a shot if they can improve that even more over the final weeks.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (1)*
2. UTSA*
3. Arizona State
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Once again, Texas is the top overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. To be completely honest, there’s a gap between them and the rest of the pack right now. The Longhorns are 37-5 overall, but even more impressively 19-2 in the SEC with a five-game conference lead. Texas also leads the country with 14 Q1 wins, sitting 14-3 in Q1 games.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (16)*
2. Arizona
3. Texas A&M
4. Grand Canyon*

While UCLA wasn’t in the hosting mix in last week’s projections, they’re back in this week. The Bruins are 32-11 overall, 16-5 in Big Ten play and No. 17 in RPI at this point. They might have to win the Big Ten to host due to a 2-5 Q1 record, but if things play out in their favor, they will be in the mix even if they can’t catch Iowa. Arizona is another potential host, falling out of our top 16 this week.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (2)
2. Wake Forest
3. East Tennessee State*
4. Central Connecticut*

Georgia has been all over the top eight in our projections over recent weeks, but they settle in as a comfortable No. 2 overall seed today. The Bulldogs are 35-11 overall, 12-9 in SEC play and No. 2 in RPI, also tied for second with 12 Q1 wins. Further boosting Georgia’s resume is a No. 3 non-conference RPI and a No. 4 overall strength of schedule.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (15)
2. TCU
3. Iowa
4. Ball State*

Vanderbilt has a pretty strong resume, and the only reason they’re the No. 15 seed is their remaining schedule. The Commodores finish vs. Alabama, at Tennessee and vs. Kentucky, which won’t be an easy stretch. Still, they are 31-13 overall, 12-9 in SEC play and No. 3 in RPI, and they’re pretty safe as a host. They’re an easy candidate to rise even higher. The same is true for TCU, who is just shy of the hosting line in today’s Field of 64 but remains firmly in the mix for a top 16 seed.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (3)
2. Virginia Tech
3. Southeastern Louisiana*
4. Missouri State*

LSU picked up a massive series win over Tennessee this past weekend, improving to 36-9 overall, 14-7 in SEC play. The Tigers come in at No. 9 in RPI, and are feeling very safe as a regional host. LSU could finish just about anywhere in the top 16, from where they are today at No. 3 to one of the first teams on the outside of the top eight.

Raleigh Regional

1. NC State (14)
2. Alabama
3. Troy
4. Columbia*

All of a sudden, NC State sits atop the ACC’s standings. While a big series against UNC awaits, the Wolfpack have done enough to get into the hosting picture at 30-12 overall, 15-6 in the ACC and No. 22 in RPI. If they keep winning and end up taking the ACC crown, they’ll be in the top eight. Alabama is another potential regional host, our No. 17 overall seed this week. If someone falls out of the hosting mix, Alabama is next up.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)*
2. Kentucky
3. UConn*
4. Bryant*

North Carolina isn’t currently in first place in the ACC, but we’re projecting them to take the ACC title by the end of the regular season. The Tar Heels are 33-10 overall, 15-9 in ACC play and No. 7 in RPI, also currently No. 1 in non-conference RPI to further boost the resume. The way things are looking now, UNC is a very comfortable host, and feeling pretty good as a top eight.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (13)
2. Cal Poly
3. USC
4. Fresno State*

This past weekend was definitely a setback for Oregon State. The Beavers were swept by rival Oregon, falling to 32-10 on the year and now sit at No. 11 in RPI. Losing that series felt like a big missed opportunity, with their remaining weekends being at Hawaii (RPI 72), at Iowa (RPI 61), and vs. Long Beach State (RPI 179). For now, Oregon State is a comfortable host. But if they falter any down the stretch, they could move into danger on the hosting bubble.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (5)
2. Southern Miss
3. Florida
4. High Point*

Clemson lost their series over the weekend to NC State, but the Tigers are still feeling good as a top eight seed. They are 36-10 overall and 13-8 in the ACC, coming in at No. 8 in RPI at this point. This turned out to be an intriguing regional, with Southern Miss as the 2 and Florida as the 3. The Gators are still just above the bubble, but they must get to 13 wins to be in that position.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (12)*
2. Ole Miss
3. Duke
4. Oral Roberts*

Coastal Carolina remains a comfortable host in this week’s Field of 64, sitting 33-11 overall, 17-4 in the Sun Belt and No. 13 in RPI. Their 3-6 Q1 record is a flaw on the resume, but if the Chanticleers finish in this RPI range and run away with the Sun Belt, they’ll undoubtedly be hosting. Another potential host falls in here with Ole Miss, and the Rebels could very easily be around this range as a host if they finish the regular season strongly.

Irvine Regional

1. UC Irvine (6)*
2. Oregon
3. Kansas State
4. San Diego*

UC Irvine has stayed hot, sweeping Cal Poly on the road over the weekend. The Anteaters are now 32-9 overall, 19-2 in the Big West, and have surged up to No. 12 in RPI. That RPI is going to drop over the final weeks with a remaining weekend schedule of UC San DIego (RPI 187), at California Baptist (RPI 257) and Cal State Fullerton (RPI 150), but if they win those games and keep the RPI in a respectable spot, they’re going to be hosting and in the top eight mix.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (11)
2. Kansas
3. Miami
4. Wright State*

Arkansas has lost three consecutive series, and are trending in the wrong direction. Still, the Razorbacks are 37-9 overall, 14-7 in SEC play and No. 5 in RPI. The schedule only gets tougher, too, finishing vs. Texas, at LSU and vs. Tennessee. The Razorbacks still have a hosting-caliber resume, but they’ll be in danger on the hosting bubble if they end the season with six straight series losses. Kansas is a team that could jump into the hosting picture, should a team like Arkansas fall.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (7)
2. Georgia Tech
3. Western Kentucky
4. Holy Cross*

Tennessee is down a couple spots in this week’s Field of 64 after falling to LSU, but the Vols are still in great shape as a host and a potential top eight. The Vols are 35-9 overall, 13-8 in the SEC and No. 10 in RPI, with a 12-4 Q1 record. They finish with Auburn, Vanderbilt and at Arkansas, so what happens over the final weeks will determine exaclty where Tennessee settles in.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (10)*
2. Oklahoma
3. Northeastern*
4. George Mason*

West Virginia continues to trend upwards, now 37-5 overall, 16-3 in Big 12 play and No. 15 in RPI. The Mountaineers are still sitting at the top of the Big 12, and winning that regular season would likely solidify their status as a top 16 seed. Oklahoma is another potential host, finishing a little bit behind the rest of the pack this week.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (8)
2. Louisville
3. Fairfield*
4. Southeast Missouri*

Auburn’s resume keeps getting stronger, now 30-14 overall, 11-10 in the SEC and No. 4 in RPI, with an 11-9 Q1 record to go with it. The Tigers finish with Tennessee, South Carolina and Ole Miss, and if they can keep finding ways to win, they’re going to be safe as a host and a likely top eight seed, as we have them in today’s Field of 64.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (9)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Xavier
4. Austin Peay*

Florida State dropped its series against Louisville over the weekend, but the Seminoles are still a safe host at this point. They also have a strong case to be a top eight seed, at 31-9 overall, 12-6 in ACC play and No. 6 in RPI. FSU also has a 10-8 Q1 record, which will help their case. Dallas Baptist is a little bit behind some of the other hosting contenders, but they could be right there in the mix, too.