Field of 64 Projections: Where the NCAA Tournament stands entering conference tournaments

Conference tournament week has officially arrived for college baseball. Plenty of bids will be stolen this week, altering the postseason picture. But it’s time to take a look at our updated Field of 64 projections as of Monday, May 20.

On the hosting line, we have two new hosts in this week’s projections. NC State (No. 15) and Oklahoma State (No. 16) are the two new teams on the right side of the hosting bubble, with Wake Forest (previously No. 8) and Mississippi State (previously No. 14) dropping to the 2-line.

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On the bubble, there are more changes. Coastal Carolina was listed as one of our last four teams in last week, and they are now in the field and above the last teams in. James Madison has gone from First Four Out to Last Four In, while Northeastern goes from First Four Out to in the field. Florida also rises from Next Four Out to in the field, while LSU and Cincinnati both improve from Next Four Out to Last Four In.

There are some intriguing regional fields and matchups in this week’s Field of 64. Here is the full projected NCAA Tournament.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Cincinnati, LSU, James Madison, Kansas State
First Four Out: Louisville, TCU, UCF, California
Next Four Out: St. John’s, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Georgetown

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (1)*
2. Nebraska
3. UNC Greensboro*
4. Omaha*

Tennessee takes over the top overall seed in this week’s projections after winning a share of the regular season SEC title and earning the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament. If the Vols go on to win in Hoover this week, they’ll be the top seed. Even if they don’t but go on a run, they’ll be in consideration. They are joined in Knoxville by Nebraska, UNC Greensboro and Omaha.

Stillwater Regional

1. Oklahoma State (16)
2. Mississippi State
3. Oregon
4. Lamar*

Oklahoma State has entered the top 16 in this week’s Field of 64, as the Cowboys finished the regular season 36-16 overall, 19-9 in the Big 12 and No. 17 in RPI. Barring a quick exit in the Big 12 Tournament, Oklahoma State is looking solid as a host right now. They are joined by another potential host in Mississippi State, who dropped out of the top 16 week mostly due to RPI being at No. 23. Also in the Stillwater Regional is Oregon and Lamar.

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (2)
2. Illinois*
3. Xavier
4. Penn*

Kentucky isn’t the top overall seed this week, but they could play their way back into that spot in Hoover. The Wildcats are No. 3 in RPI after finishing the regular season with a share of the SEC title. Either way, they are a top five overall seed lock. Kentucky welcomes Illinois, Xavier and Cornell to the Lexington Regional in this week’s field.

Raleigh Regional

1. NC State (15)
2. South Carolina
3. Troy
4. Saint Louis*

NC State is officially in the mix to host a regional, and they sit in a pretty good spot. The Wolfpack have an impressive weekend resume, capped by sweeping Wake Forest this past weekend. They could play their way even higher with a run in the ACC Tournament, but right now they sit at No. 15. Also in Raleigh is South Carolina, Troy and Saint Louis.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (3)*
2. UConn*
3. Coastal Carolina
4. Presbyterian*

North Carolina won the ACC regular season title by two games, and come in as our No. 3 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64 projections. The Tar Heels are essentially a lock to host as a top eight seed at this point. They could play their way into a top two seed with a strong showing in the ACC Tournament. UNC welcomes UConn, Coastal Carolina and Presbyterian to the Chapel Hill Regional.

Santa Barbara Regional

1. UC Santa Barbara (14)*
2. Arizona
3. Kansas State
4. Grand Canyon*

UC Santa Barbara is in a great position to host, and they come in at No. 14 this week. While their current RPI of No. 10 will fall this week in their final regular season weekend, they might have enough cushion to where it won’t matter so long as they win. UCSB’s ceiling is probably right around this area, though. They are joined by Arizona, Kansas State and Grand Canyon.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (4)
2. San Diego
3. Charleston*
4. Army*

Texas A&M picked up a big series win over Arkansas this past weekend, and is right back in the mix to become one of the top overall seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies currently sit at No. 1 in RPI, and a few wins in Hoover could have them back in the top overall seed mix. Joining them in the College Station Regional is San Diego, Charleston and Army.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (13)*
2. West Virginia
3. Vanderbilt
4. Bryant*

Virginia has, perhaps quietly, put together a pretty solid resume and they remain as a host in this week’s Field of 64 despite being on the bubble. They would benefit greatly by a run in the ACC Tournament, though, as others are just behind them in the hosting race. Virginia is joined in Charlottesville by West Virginia, Vanderbilt and Bryant.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (5)
2. Southern Miss
3. Cincinnati
4. Little Rock*

Though Arkansas lost a series to Texas A&M this past weekend, they remain firmly in the mix to host as a top five seed and feel safe in the top eight discussion. The Razorbacks will lock that in with a win or two in the SEC Tournament this week. Joining them in the Fayetteville Regional is Southern Miss, Cincinnati and Little Rock.

Terre Haute Regional

1. Indiana State (12)*
2. Wake Forest
3. Alabama
4. Austin Peay*

Indiana State’s resume might be light, but they are likely going to host at this point and sit at No. 9 in RPI. They come in as our No. 12 overall seed this week, and are given a pretty tough regional as well. The Terre Haute Regional also includes Wake Forest, who was a top eight host last week, in addition to Alabama and also Austin Peay.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (6)
2. Louisiana*
3. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida A&M*

The top six hosts feel pretty secure this week, with a gap between them and the next group of teams. Clemson is in the top six right now and it would be pretty surprising if they fell below that. The Tigers are No. 7 in RPI and finished 20-10 in the ACC this season. Also in the Clemson Regional is Louisiana, UNC Wilmington and Florida A&M.

Greenville Regional

1. East Carolina (11)*
2. Duke
3. James Madison
4. Wright State*

After a five-game losing streak, East Carolina was on a downward trend but they got back on track this week and come in as a host as the No. 11 seed in this week’s Field of 64 projections. ECU has a hosting-worthy resume at this point, and feel to be safe as a host unless they don’t win a couple of games in the AAC Tournament. The Pirates welcome Duke, James Madison and Wright State to the Greenville Regional.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (7)
2. Texas
3. Georgia Tech
4. Sacred Heart*

While the top six seeds feel to be set right now, Georgia also feels likely to stay in the top eight mix as the No. 7 seed. The Bulldogs went 17-13 in the SEC and are No. 6 in RPI entering conference tournament week. They are given a pretty exciting regional in Athens, though, with Texas, Georgia Tech and Sacred Heart coming to town.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (10)
2. Louisiana Tech*
3. Florida
4. Bowling Green*

Florida State is still in the mix for a top eight seed, and the Seminoles’ range feels to be around 8-11 right now. They come in as the No. 10 seed in this week’s Field of 64, and they are pretty much locked in as a host at this point. The Tallahassee Regional is another fun one, also including Louisiana Tech, Florida and Bowling Green.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (8)*
2. UC Irvine
3. Northeastern
4. Air Force*

Oregon State fell just short of the regular season Pac-12 title, but they did take two out of three against Arizona this past weekend, who won the regular season crown. The Beavers would be in a great spot to round out the top eight if they won the Pac-12 Tournament, but they could fall to the bottom tier of hosts if they stumble there. Oregon State is joined by UC Irvine, Northeastern and Air Force in the Corvallis Regional.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (9)*
2. Dallas Baptist
3. LSU
4. Niagara*

Oklahoma is definitely part of the discussion for a top eight overall seed, but fell just short and come in at No. 9 this week. The Sooners ran away with the regular season Big 12 title b going 23-7, but enter conference tournament week at No. 15 in RPI. If they go on a run and get that RPI up a little bit, winning the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament titles would be enough to launch them into the top eight. The Norman Regional also includes Dallas Baptist, LSU and Niagara.