Field of 64 Projections: NCAA Tournament picture shaken up entering conference tournament week

The regular season has come to an end in this college baseball season. Now, attention shifts to the postseason. Ahead of conference tournament week, we’ve updated our Field of 64 projections with changes throughout.

On the hosting front, things look different. We have two new hosts in this week’s projections. Overall, the SEC still leads the way with eight of the top 16 seeds in our NCAA Tournament field and six of the top eight. The ACC follows with four hosts, and the top 16 is rounded out by the Big Ten (2), Sun Belt (1), and Oregon State as an independent.

As for total bids, the SEC unsurprisingly leads the charge with 13 teams getting in. The ACC also has double digits with 10. Other leagues with multiple bids are the Big 12 (8), Big East (3), Big Ten (3) and Sun Belt (3).

The NCAA Tournament selection show is Monday, May 26. Most conferences will begin their conference tournaments early this week, though some are already underway.

*denotes automatic qualifier as conference champion

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Arizona State, UConn, Oklahoma State, Xavier
First Four Out: UTRGV, Virginia, Western Kentucky, Cal Poly
Next Four Out: Charlotte, Iowa, Kennesaw State, Michigan

The bubble is in interesting shape entering conference tournaments. Oklahoma State’s sweep over Arizona State has the Cowboys in the field for the first time this season, while the Sun Devils are trending in the wrong direction. They are back-to-back in RPI (Oklahoma State 45, Arizona State 46), and the series to end the regular season could play a factor if they’re battling each other for a final spot.

UTRGV’s early exit from the Southland Tournament has them in danger. Their fate now lies in the committee’s hand, and just two Q1 wins and nine combined wins in Q1 and Q2 could spell danger. Cal Poly (RPI 43, two Q1 wins) and Western Kentucky (RPI 48, 3 Q1 wins) are in similar boats, and need to go on a run in their conference tournaments to boost their cases.

Iowa was running away with the Big Ten regular season just a few weeks ago. Now, the Hawkeyes have lost their last two Big Ten series, their last three series overall, and are 1-7-1 in their last nine games with RPI all the way down to 74. They’ll need a big run this week to get back in.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (1)*
2. Louisville
3. Xavier
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Texas ended the regular season as SEC champions, finishing 42-11 overall, 22-8 in league play and No. 4 in RPI. The Longhorns feel safe as the top-seed, though if one of the other top rated hosts go deeper than them in the SEC Tournament, that could change. Still, their NCAA-leading 17 Q1 wins have them feeling extremely comfortable as one of the top overall seeds.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (16)
2. Tennessee
3. Notre Dame
4. Houston Christian*

UCLA holds onto a hosting bid for now, sitting 39-15 overall, 22-8 in Big Ten play and finishing with a share of the regular season Big Ten title. The Bruins are No. 15 in RPI, and their 3-7 Q1 record could limit them. Tennessee is 41-15 overall, 16-14 in the SEC, 12-10 in Q1 games and No. 16 in RPI, which feels host-worthy. But the Vols have lost five SEC series in a row and six of their last seven series. That puts them on the hosting bubble entering Hoover this week.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (2)
2. Duke
3. East Tennessee State*
4. SIU Edwardsville*

Vanderbilt finishes the regular season 39-16 overall, 19-11 in SEC play and No. 3 in RPI. They come in as the No. 2 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64, and they are a lock for a national seed. The Commodores are 15-14 in Q1 games, one of four teams in the country with at least 15 Q1 games. Even if they have a quick exit in Hoover, Vanderbilt will have the chance to host a super regional.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (15)
2. TCU
3. USC
4. Columbia*

Ole Miss has quietly been hanging around the hosting conversation for a while, and their series win over Auburn to end the regular season pushes them into the top 16. The Rebels are 37-18 overall, 16-14 in SEC play and No. 18 in RPI, with a 16-14 Q1 record. That’s hosting caliber. TCU could sneak into the mix as well this week, sitting No. 17 in RPI at 37-17 overall and 19-11 in the Big 12.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (3)
2. Arizona
3. UConn
4. Long Island*

North Carolina finished the regular season with a massive series win over Florida State, likely locking them into the top eight. They come in at No. 3 in this week’s projections, finishing 39-12 overall, 18-11 in ACC play and No. 7 in RPI. With a No. 2 non-conference RPI to go along with an 11-5 Q1 record, the Tar Heels are all but locked into the top eight.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (14)
2. Southern Miss
3. Arizona State
4. Kent State*

Florida State is an interesting case in the hosting discussion. They’re 37-13 overall and 17-10 in the ACC, sitting at No. 14 in RPI with a 13-11 Q1 record. They feel pretty safe as a top 16 host, and a run in the ACC Tournament would get them in play for the top eight. Southern Miss is all of a sudden right in the thick of the hosting mix, too, at 41-13 overall, 24-6 in the Sun Belt and No. 21 in RPI. Right now, Southern Miss would be our next team to step into the top 16 if one was to fall out.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (4)
2. Kansas*
3. Creighton*
4. Abilene Christian*

Arkansas finished strong, ending the regular season 43-12 overall, 20-10 in SEC play and No. 5 in RPI. The Razorbacks are 14-9 in Q1 games, and are all but locked into a top eight national seed. Kansas is a sneaky contender to play into the hosting mix too, but they come in as a 2-seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Jayhawks, should they win the Big 12 Tournament, would certainly have a case, though they’re a bit off of the top 16 right now.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (13)*
2. Florida
3. Northeastern*
4. Murray State*

Georgia Tech has been right in the mix atop the ACC all season, and they won the regular season title after finishing 39-16 overall and 19-11 in league play. The Yellow Jackets are No. 20 in RPI and 12-10 in Q1 games, and as things currently stand, they feel solid as a host. A quick exit in the ACC Tournament would put them on the hosting bubble. Florida, on the other hand, fought its way back to .500 in SEC play. The Gators, No. 13 in RPI, could certainly play their way into the hosting mix with a strong showing in the SEC Tournament.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (5)
2. NC State
3. Rhode Island*
4. Bryant*

At this point, it would be surprising if Georgia didn’t finish as a top eight seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are 42-14 overall, 18-12 in SEC play and finished the regular season No. 1 in RPI. They are 11-10 in Q1 games, which is a little behind some of the other top seeds, but they likely won’t fall out of the top eight.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (12)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Oklahoma State
4. Oral Roberts*

Alabama finished the regular season 40-15 overall, 16-14 in SEC play, 14-11 in Q1 games and No. 9 in RPI. They are a lock to host a regional, and could factor into the top eight discussion with a strong showing in Hoover. Dallas Baptist is another potential host, finishing 38-14 overall and 21-6 in Conference USA, also No. 19 in RPI. Their 4-4 Q1 record could limit them, but if enough chaos comes, they’ll be right in the mix.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (6)
2. West Virginia
3. Austin Peay*
4. Rider*

Another team feeling safe as a top eight seed is LSU, who finished 42-13 overall, 19-11 in SEC play and No. 8 in RPI with a 13-10 Q1 record. The Tigers are locked into hosting, and barring something unexpected, are all but locked in as a top eight seed. West Virginia has fallen quickly, once feeling safe as a host in Field of 64s just weeks ago. Now, though, they are likely too far behind.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (11)*
2. Wake Forest
3. Kansas State
4. Wright State*

Coastal Carolina locked up the Sun Belt regular season over the weekend, finishing 44-11 overall and 26-4 in league play. The Chanticleers are just 4-6 in Q1 games, but their Sun Belt dominance paired with a No. 5 non-conference RPI and a No. 14 non-conference strength of schedule has them feeling safe as a host. Wake Forest, believe it or not, can’t be completely ruled out as a host either. The Demon Deacons would need some help, but they are No. 25 in RPI and within striking distance.

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (7)*
2. Mississippi State
3. Cincinnati
4. Nevada*

Oregon claimed a share of the Big Ten regular season and the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and now they’re into the top eight in this week’s Field of 64. The Ducks are 41-13 overall, 22-8 in Big Ten play and No. 12 in RPI wtith a 9-1 Q1 record. Barring an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament, Oregon feels somewhat solid as a top eight. They are locked in as a host.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (10)
2. Oklahoma
3. Troy
4. USC Upstate*

Clemson has struggled at times down the stretch, but finished 41-15 overall, 18-12 in ACC play and sit No. 10 in RPI with a 10-10 Q1 record. They feel pretty safe as a host, and could play back into the top eight discussion if things go well, though they’d likely need some help from the teams around them losing early.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (8)
2. UTSA*
3. Miami
4. Holy Cross*

Auburn has great underlying numbers, finishing the regular season 38-17, 17-13 in SEC play, No. 2 in RPI and 15-12 in Q1 games. The Tigers are undoubtedly locked into hosting, and as things currently stand, are in good position to host as a top eight seed as they do in our latest Field of 64. UTSA can’t be ruled out, either, running away with the AAC regular season and sitting at No. 22 in RPI entering conference tournament week.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (9)
2. UC Irvine*
3. Kentucky
4. San Diego*

Oregon State fared well in their year as an independent. The Beavers are 41-12-1 overall, No. 6 in RPI and 10-9 in Q1 games, and are very safe as a host right now. Still, their biggest issue is that they don’t have the opportunity to boost their resume in a conference tournament. That could limit them in the top eight discussion, but still, they won’t fall too far.