First-year coaches: Who is ready to roll and who faces a tough rebuild?

Taking over a college football team in the NIL and transfer portal era is either much easier or much more difficult than it used to be. On one end, an aggressive coach with a well-funded collective can keep a great team great or make a bad team good. On the other, a coach who can’t retain talent or can’t flip the roster quickly and effectively faces a much tougher rebuild. 

The 12 new power conference coaches in college football fall into four different tiers. How well they navigate the changes in the sport will determine how long they remain in each tier…

Keeping it rolling

These coaches were hired to ensure elite programs stay elite. And so far, they’re doing just that.

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
For years, we wondered what would happen when Nick Saban retired. SEC coaches fantasized about no longer living under Alabama’s boot (never mind the equally heavy boot residing in Athens, Ga.). Would the Crimson Tide return to the land of the chronically above-average and leave the land of giants?

Sorry to disappoint, but DeBoer has so far handled the transition about as flawlessly as a coach could. Losing safety Caleb Downs to Ohio State is the only demerit, but DeBoer never really had a chance to try to keep him. Offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor came back from Iowa and multiple Washington players followed DeBoer to help patch what few holes in the roster there were. Most of the other expected starters remained, creating a two-deep as formidable as any in the country. DeBoer’s two-year performance at Washington — with good players but not nearly the depth — suggests he’ll be able to get the most out of the roster.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s class of 2025 currently checks in at No. 2 in the On3 Industry Team Recruiting Rankings. That seems to answer the next big question, which was “Can DeBoer recruit in the SEC?” He seems to be competing for prospects similarly to Saban. So it’s entirely possible that Alabama stays at this level for quite some time.

Sherrone Moore, Michigan
A big chunk of the questions Moore got at Big Ten media days last week concerned how he would keep Jim Harbaugh’s culture intact. And that is a big reason why the 38-year-old Moore was elevated to the job. But another reason is that Moore helped build the personality of the Michigan program starting with his move to offensive line coach prior to the 2021 season. What group epitomized the Wolverines’ rise from couldn’t-beat-Ohio State to national champ? Moore’s offensive line.

Plus, Moore played an outsized role in recruiting during those years. Key players such as Donovan Edwards describe Moore as a major reason they chose Michigan. 

In most cases, our next question when a coordinator becomes the head coach is “But how will they handle the gameday responsibilities of being the head coach?” We have a cheat sheet with Moore, who served as Michigan’s head coach for four games last season during Harbaugh suspensions. That included a win at Penn State that kicked off less than 24 hours after the Big Ten suspended Harbaugh. It also included the Ohio State game that decided the winner of the Big Ten East. Moore, juggling head coaching and offensive playcalling, made something incredibly difficult look easy.

Like DeBoer, another major question is how Moore would recruit as the head coach. The class of 2025 didn’t start coming together as quickly as Alabama’s. But Michigan currently ranks No. 14 in the On3 Industry rankings, which tracks similarly to the late-Harbaugh era rankings. As we discussed, Moore helped develop the personality of this program. That personality isn’t likely to change with a new coach in charge.

Inherited wealth

These coaches each take over a team that looks capable of winning right now.

Mike Elko, Texas A&M
Elko has gone out of the way to caution that Texas A&M doesn’t have an elite roster despite predecessor Jimbo Fisher signing the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class in 2022. But “don’t expect us to be Georgia right away” doesn’t mean the cupboard is bare.

Players such as defensive end Shemar Turner, linebacker Taurean York and guard Chase Bisontis would fit anywhere. Quarterback Conner Weigman has been impressive when healthy. Meanwhile, Elko went into the portal and got edge rusher Nic Scourton, who left nearby Bryan High as a tweener who didn’t fit into the star-studded 2022 Texas A&M class and starred for two seasons at Purdue. 

It’s quite possible Texas A&M’s defensive line is legitimately nasty, and that gives a team a chance in almost every game. It’s no accident the sports books have set the Aggies’ season win total at 8.5 despite a schedule that includes Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU and Texas.

Brent Brennan, Arizona
This could have been a very different situation, but Brennan ran into a group of players who really wanted to keep playing together. When Brennan got hired, the question was whether the Wildcats’ stars would follow former coach Jedd Fisch to Washington. But led by quarterback Noah Fifita and all-everything receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the core of a team that went 10-3 last season decided to remain intact in Tucson.

With Fifita, McMillan, offensive tackle Jonah Savaiinaea, linebacker Jacob Manu and cornerback Tacario Davis leading the way, Arizona should enter the Big 12 with legitimate title aspirations, and this group should allow Brennan to show recruits what he can do with elite talent. 

Brennan always did more with less at San Jose State. In his first season at Arizona, he’s going to have a lot more. 

Don’t assume a win if they’re on your schedule

These coaches took over programs that fired their predecessors, but don’t be shocked if they exceed early expectations.

Curt Cignetti, Indiana
Cignetti isn’t afraid to stir the pot. He knows he’s supposed to beat Purdue, but he’s also not afraid to call out Michigan and Ohio State. The reason? He doesn’t want his players to believe there is a ceiling (even if there might be). 

This philosophy has worked for Cignetti in Division II (Indiana University of Pennsylvania), the FCS (Elon and James Madison) and the Group of 5 (James Madison after the move up to FBS). As DeBoer (Washington, Fresno State, the NAIA’s University of Sioux Falls) and Lance Leipold (Kansas by way of Buffalo and D-III Wisconsin-Whitewater) have shown, some coaches are capable of winning at every level. Perhaps Cignetti is one of those.

He had to flip the roster after Tom Allen was fired, but he did it by loading up on older players who had succeeded at lower levels. This includes former Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, a three-year starter who won MAC offensive player of the year honors in 2022. This might not scare Michigan or Ohio State, but it should deeply concern the other 10 teams on Indiana’s schedule.

Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Mississippi State pulled the ripcord on Zach Arnett after less than a season, and Lebby had to turn over the roster ahead of a season that was always going to be a year of transition as the Bulldogs lost multiple veterans who had exhausted their eligibility. 

How the Bulldogs fare could depend on how three offensive line imports fare. Tackle Makylan Pounders (Memphis), guard Marlon Martinez (LSU) and center Ethan Miner (North Texas) will have to face some excellent offensive lines (Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee). But if that group can hold up, it will be fascinating to see how Baylor transfer Blake Shapen performs at quarterback. We’ve seen Shapen win a Big 12 title game as the starter, but we’ve also seen him struggle behind a too-young offensive line that wasn’t good enough to establish the run in a wide-zone heavy offense.

Lebby runs the veer-and-shoot originally designed by his father-in-law Art Briles, who used it to win the Big 12 title at Baylor. That offense has become more common (Ole Miss and Tennessee also run it in the SEC), but Shapen has never run it before. It is historically a QB-friendly offense, so it might allow Shapen to reach the kind of production we thought he’d reach after his freshman-year cameo at Baylor. At Baylor, Shapen was hampered by a running game that couldn’t get going. If Shapen is throwing accurately in this offense, it should bolster the Bulldogs’ run game by allowing them to run into lighter boxes.

Fran Brown, Syracuse
If Syracuse’s coaches can handle the in-game defensive strategy, the Orange could be one of the biggest surprises in the ACC. Neither Brown nor defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson has called plays at this level before. So that question will loom until we see the Orange play defense in-game.

Brown and Robinson’s player acquisition bona fides are not in question, though. The roster only got better from a team that went 6-7 but lost seven of its final nine games. The headliner is quarterback Kyle McCord, who started every game for Ohio State last season but has spent this offseason being blamed for the Buckeyes’ not beating Michigan and taking strays from New York Giants assistants interviewing Marvin Harrison Jr. For all the criticism of McCord, he’s a clear upgrade. Meanwhile, the Orange also added edge rusher Fadil Diggs (Texas A&M), cornerback Clarence Lewis (Notre Dame) and receiver Zeed Haynes (Georgia) to a group that already included established producers such as receiver Oronde Gadsden II. 

This wasn’t a terrible team last year. It had some tough quarterback injury luck and wound up having to rely on tight end Dan Villari at the position in the bowl game. (Villari, by the way, is another versatile offensive weapon this year.) With an improved roster and a manageable schedule, Brown could make a big impact in year one. 

Manny Diaz, Duke
Don’t assume that Elko’s departure means the Blue Devils aren’t capable of being a bowl team in Diaz’s first year.

Of course the headline is that quarterback Riley Leonard left for Notre Dame and leading rusher Jordan Waters left for N.C. State, but former Miami head coach and Penn State defensive coordinator Diaz managed to keep much of the roster he inherited from Elko. Jaquez Moore, who entered the portal but opted to return, averaged 5.8 yards a carry when spelling Waters last year, and either Texas transfer Maalik Murphy or holdover Grayson Loftis will start at quarterback. Jordan Moore (62 catches, 862 yards) returns at receiver.

DB Jaylen Stinson entered the portal after Elko left but elected to stay. Safety Terry Moore decided to stay as well. Rice transfer cornerback Tre’Shon Devones should bolster the secondary as well. If Diaz and company can develop some linemen that can bolster the Blue Devils’ tackle-for-loss numbers, they could retain their Elko-era reputation as the team no one else in the ACC wants to play.

Bill O’Brien, Boston College
Like Brown at Syracuse, O’Brien inherits a team that wasn’t exactly bad last year. In fact, the Eagles closed with a 23-14 Fenway Bowl win against American Athletic Conference champ SMU.

Where O’Brien’s takeover really gets interesting is his history working with college quarterbacks. While the most recent memory of O’Brien is of a bad year in New England working with Mac Jones, he’s also the guy who was Bryce Young’s offensive coordinator when he won the Heisman Trophy at Alabama and the guy who got solid production out of Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenberg at Penn State.

Now he inherits Thomas Castellanos, who took over the job as a freshman last season and threw for 2.,248 yards and 15 touchdowns while rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns. If O’Brien can help Castellanos become a more efficient passer — his 6.8 yards per attempt from last year needs to improve — the sophomore could be one of the scarier QBs in the ACC.

Ripped Down To The Studs (But need to find some studs)

These coaches have taken over programs that are certainly capable of success. Some have even enjoyed some very recent success. But in each case, some combination of unusual circumstances (coaching tumult, scandal, conference realignment) has thinned the roster and made the job much more difficult in this particular instance.

Jedd Fisch, Washington
Fisch laughed last week when I asked what someone who turned off their TV after the national title game might think when they turned on the Huskies’ season-opener this season. “You’re not going to know one guy,” Fisch said. “Well, maybe one.”

Maybe two. Cornerback Elijah Jackson and linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala, who started last season. But everyone else in the starting 22 will be new — at least to Washington.

The Huskies got hit by a perfect storm. They had 10 players drafted (including three first-rounders). Double-digit players transferred following the departure of DeBoer to Alabama. Meanwhile, Brennan is in a different tier on this list because a lot of the players who could have followed Fisch to Washington chose to remain at Arizona.

The situation at center is emblematic of the issues the Huskies face as they flip the roster. Parker Brailsford, who started for the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line last season at Washington, will start for DeBoer at Alabama. Landen Hatchett, who backed up Brailsford last season, has been recovering from an ACL injury since Sugar Bowl practices. D’Angalo Titialii, picked up by the Huskies from the transfer portal from Portland State in case Hatchett wasn’t ready in time, just arrived. That position could be completely fine assuming Hatchett is ready and Titalii adjusts to his new team, but Fisch and company won’t know until they get into camp.

Add to this a conference switch that ratchets up the degree of difficulty across the board, and the new Washington staff will have to work get the Huskies back to the level they were at the past two seasons. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, but it may take some time.

Jonathan Smith, Michigan State
If Smith follows the same blueprint at Michigan State that he followed at Oregon State, the Spartans ultimately will be just fine. Smith’s preferred style — old and nasty on both lines of scrimmage, reliable in the run game — travels especially well and fits the personality of a program that has seen its best years playing that style.

Unfortunately, the tumult of the past few years has forced Smith into a situation where he needed to perform a roster teardown ahead of the rebuild. Plus, Michigan State wasn’t in a position to retain several returning starters in the spring portal when market forces pushed the costs of those players — specifically defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Simeon Barrow — much higher. 

Fortunately, Smith did bring along quarterback Aidan Chiles and tight end Jack Velling. So the Spartans will have some reliable talent that is already familiar with what the staff wants. They just wish they had a little more.

DeShaun Foster, UCLA
The Chip Kelly-to-DeShaun Foster transition at UCLA was one of the weirdest we’ll ever see. Kelly hired a new defensive staff after losing coordinator D’Anton Lynn to USC, but then Kelly left to become Ohio State’s offensive coordinator. 

Foster, who had spent the previous 10 seasons at UCLA, had actually left to become the Las Vegas Raiders’ running backs coach. He was called back home to salvage a roster that had lost some productive players to the portal either because they followed Lynn (DBs Kamari Ramsey and John Humphrey) or left because they felt they were better off at other programs (QB Dante Moore to Oregon and tight end Carsen Ryan to Utah). 

Foster’s biggest challenge might not even be dealing with a new Big Ten schedule. It’s probably resuscitating UCLA’s high school recruiting operation, which had languished under Kelly. That likely will be the key to improving the Bruins long-term. 

Willie Fritz, Houston
Fritz has won at multiple levels (Central Missouri, Sam Houston State, Georgia Southern, Tulane). With the exception of Georgia Southern, those stops have required a build. That’s also the case at Houston, which lost receivers Matthew Golden (Texas) and Sam Brown (Miami), offensive lineman Tyler Johnson (Colorado) and defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell (Oregon) this offseason. 

That’s a tough group to lose for a team that struggled with depth in its first season in the Big 12 in 2023. Fritz said at Big 12 media days that he plans to play a lot of players in pre-conference matchups against UNLV, Oklahoma and Rice. Those first two are not teams anyone wants to face without a firm idea of what their team can do.

Fritz, who won big with QB Michael Pratt at Tulane, will have to rely on veteran Donovan Smith to help young and new players come along.