Five freshmen who could outproduce their high school ranking

College freshmen are tough to gauge at times, especially in advance of the season starting. Opportunity plays a big role in how much any player produces. As you look through the national landscape this college basketball season, you will see some freshmen who immediately step into roles.

I looked through the 2023 On3 Industry Ranking, a proprietary algorithm that compiles ratings and rankings from all four primary recruiting media sources, to see which players ranked outside of the top 50 will have the opportunity to produce as freshmen.

Here is a list of five freshmen who could outproduce their high school ranking.

The freshmen

G Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh

Height/Weight: 6-4/175
High School: Baltimore (MD) St. Frances
2023 On3 Industry Ranking: No. 98

The skinny: Carlton Carrington’s feel for the game is his standout feature. He has a lengthy frame, it is thin, but it is projectable. He is able to handle, shoot, and pass the ball from both guard positions, which lends to his versatility. Carrington is capable on the ball or off, acting as a primary or a secondary guy, who, at 6-foot-4, can shoot the ball with range. He also brings a sense of toughness to the court. 

G Silas Demary Jr., Georgia

Height/Weight: 6-5/180
High School: Lincolnton (NC) Combine Academy
2023 On3 Industry Ranking: No. 76

The skinny: In the high school ranks, all Silas Demary Jr. did was win ball games. The 6-foot-5 point guard is one of the better perimeter defenders in the freshman class, with excellent instincts and positional size. He is a paint touch guard who can make the reads. Demary has the opportunity to have a significant role in the backcourt for this Mike White-led team.

F Jamie Kaiser, Maryland

Height/Weight: 6-6/205
High School: Bradenton (FL) IMG Academy
2023 On3 Industry Ranking: No. 75

The skinny: While you can probably pick holes in the individual pieces of Jamie Kaiser’s game, you will not be able to question his toughness. The former Division 1 football recruit has a strong, sturdy build with good length. At his best, he can knock down shots with range. At his baseline, he is going to be able to defend and rebound from the wing position while attacking the rim in straight lines. Opportunity will be available on the wing, and Kaiser led the team in scoring on their foreign tour.

F Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Height/Weight: 6-7/231
High School: Mt. Pleasant (UT) Wasatch Academy
2023 On3 Industry Ranking: No. 104

The skinny: South Carolina lost starting forwards GG Jackson (NBA) and Hayden Brown (graduation) from last year’s team. Collin Murray-Boyles is the highest-rated recruit coming into this year’s class. While it remains to be seen how Lamont Paris will handle the forward positions this year, Murray-Boyles is the highest-upside player in the group. He has an innate feel for production, using his length and his instincts around the basket. He is more straight-line pop than you would expect, and his long arms allow him to play an inch or two bigger than he is. 

F Joseph Tugler, Houston

Height/Weight: 6-7/215
High School: Houston (TX) Cypress Falls
2023 On3 Industry Ranking: No. 73

The skinny: Joseph Tugler has a good feel, and he has natural instincts on the floor. However, what Tugler does, that might get him on the floor quicker than most is he rebounds. He has great feel on both ends of the floor to see the ball and get the ball. Tugler has good length with, good athleticism, and a strong frame, but his ability to go and get the basketball might be what gets him the opportunity. Especially with a Kelvin Sampson-led team, as he craves players who collect loose balls.