Five programs poised for leap seasons in 2023, headlined by Texas A&M and Miami
This is the sister-story to a piece I wrote yesterday, looking at five potential programs poised for regression seasons this fall — be it because they a have worse roster or face a more difficult schedule.
But what about the flip side? The optimistic outlook for teams looking to make a real leap record-wise in 2023?
There are plenty of candidates to choose from across the entire Power 5, but I’ve identified five programs (one from each conference) that look positioned for multi-win jumps this fall.
ACC — Miami
From the coaching staff to the roster, Miami barely resembles the 5-7 team it was last season in Year 1 under Mario Cristobal.
The Hurricanes couldn’t block (No. 100 nationally in sacks allowed) or cover (20 pass plays over 20 yards, good for 85th nationally) in 2022 — two very fundamental problems if you want to be a good football team. Cristobal has upgraded the offensive line, bringing in a trio of likely starters from the transfer portal, as well as signing two 5-star tackles. The decision to move on from Josh Gattis and bring in Sheldon Dawson at OC should improve an inconsistent group, too.
Defensively, the Hurricanes return one of the better safety tandems in the country, while the front-seven features multiple future NFL prospects. The defense should be boosted by a couple of transfer cornerbacks and Washington State linebacker Francisco Mauigoa, who had 60 tackles, 3.5 sacks and a pick-six as a sophomore last season.
Miami’s schedule is tough — vs. Texas A&M, Clemson and Louisville, at North Carolina, Florida State and NC State — but this is a team that should win around eight games, not flirt with bowl eligibility.
Big Ten — Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have legitimate hopes of going bowling for the first time since 2016, as Matt Rhule is looking to avoid his typical Year 1 teardown at a new program.
The former Carolina Panthers head coach returned to college football by inheriting a team that hasn’t been awful in the aggregate the last few seasons — but they were historically terrible at situational football under former head coach Scott Frost (5-22 in one-score games). With improved coaching, an enhanced roster (see: a slew of transfers from the SEC and Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims) and a Big Ten West schedule (no Ohio State or Penn State) the Cornhuskers could certainly make a 2-3 win jump this fall — ala Illinois last season.
Big 12 — Oklahoma
The Sooners are a great example of a program that should make a significant leap in 2023 — but they also really need to, considering their impending move to the SEC next season.
Brent Venables didn’t inherit a perfect situation, but Year 1 was not supposed to be a disaster at OU. The defense was a sieve, though, which is how the Sooners ended up going 0-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. But Venables has a better roster this fall, bringing back veteran quarterback Dillion Gabriel and a defense stuffed with reinforcements from the transfer portal and 2023 recruiting class.
Oklahoma’s schedule is extremely manageable this fall, as its non-conference slate no longer includes Georgia (SMU and Tulsa) and the Sooners avoid Kansas State, Texas Tech and Baylor — three of the four Big 12 teams with the highest preseason win totals not counting OU.
Pac-12 — Arizona
Jedd Fisch has methodically awoken a moribund Arizona program. Could Year 3 be the season the Wildcats make a bowl game for the first time since 2017? It certainly seems possible.
Arizona made a four-win leap in 2022, and it could reach the six-win marker this fall thanks to the return of quarterback Jayden de Laura and one of the best wide corps in the Pac-12. While USC and Washington both featured dynamic offenses, Arizona actually led the conference in yards per play (7.3) and it improved its scoring average by nearly two touchdowns from the previous season (17 points per game to 30.8)
The defense, a major red flag in 2022, must be better, but Fisch has supplemented that side of the football with former blue-chip recruits from Georgia, Oregon and UCLA, among others.
Arizona draws the three (projected) worst teams in the Pac-12 in 2023 (Arizona State, Colorado and Stanford), albeit all three on the road. The Wildcats also avoid Oregon this fall. The schedule definitely isn’t easy, but the pathway is there for Fisch to continue to showcase his rebuild by taking the program to the postseason.
SEC — Texas A&M
While I don’t think Jimbo Fisher will notch his first 10-win season in College Station this fall, the Aggies are primed for a three-win jump in 2023.
After going 5-7 with one of the least efficient (and explosive) offenses in the country, Fisher finally let go of the reigns by hiring Bobby Petrino this offseason. The marriage could be a combustible disaster, but there’s also real potential for a short-term boon. The Aggies return the most production in the SEC, including their entire starting offensive line, a trio of standout wideouts and sophomore quarterback Conner Weigman. Their defense remains loaded with 4-and 5-star prospects and they added a couple of transfer corners to the mix, too.
Fisher enters the fall facing as much pressure as any coach in the conference. It remains to be seen if the Aggies’ faithful are willing to eat more than $70 million in buyout money if the program has another disappointing season — but with rival Texas joining the SEC in 2024, A&M boosters just might be crazy enough to seriously entertain the idea.
Still, while 8-4 isn’t exactly what the Aggies signed up for when they ponied up all the money to Fisher, that would still qualify as a bounce-back season after the disaster that was 2022.