Five takeaways from second College Football Playoff rankings

The College Football Playoff starts in exactly 37 days. But if started on Wednesday, the day after the second College Football Playoff rankings, Georgia would not be in the inaugural 12-team playoff.

The Bulldogs were seeded No. 12 in the rankings Tuesday night, but because No. 13 Boise State would be the fifth highest-seeded conference champion, Georgia would not make the playoff. That just adds more pressure to Saturday’s game against Tennessee.

On3 is breaking down the five biggest takeaways from the second rankings reveal:

More changes coming to SEC seeding

Texas was slated at No. 3 in the second round of the College Football Playoff rankings. The Longhorns have a nonconference win over Michigan, which is 5-5 a year after going 15-0. And the Red River Rivalry win is looking worse and worse by the week as Oklahoma could fail to be bowl eligible.

But the Longhorns play Texas A&M in the final weekend of the college football season, with a berth in the SEC championship game possibly on the line. If Tennessee beats Georgia this weekend, which could depend on the status of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and wins out, the Volunteers will be in the SEC title game. But nothing is guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU and Missouri are all in the race to land a berth in the conference title game. That leaves the SEC’s College Football Playoff seeding influx. There’s also a possibility of an eight-way for first place if…

• Georgia beats Tennessee
• The winner of Texas and Texas A&M loses a game before the rivalry matchup
• Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri win out

What does this all mean? The SEC will not have a clear picture of how many teams are in until Sunday, Dec. 8.

Big Ten well-positioned to land four in CFP

The College Football Playoff committee is high on the Big Ten. That was clear Tuesday night with the second rankings reveal. With Oregon slated as the top seed in the CFP bracket, the Big Ten also had No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Indiana.

More importantly for Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, his teams are going to have the ability to drop a game and probably remain in the inaugural 12-team playoff. Specifically, if Ohio State knocks off Indiana in two weeks, the rankings suggest the Hoosiers will remain in the playoff. That’s critical for the Big Ten to get four teams in the postseason.

The committee still has Penn State ahead of Indiana in the rankings. Indiana has trailed only once this season – against Michigan State before blowing away the Spartans in a 47-10 victory. Penn State does have a tougher schedule, with an FPI strength of schedule of 30. But the Nittany Lions don’t have a quality win. On the flip side, Indiana is undefeated.

How high can Boise State go?

No. 13 Boise State still needs to win out and capture the Mountain West Conference title. But the Broncos are still positioned to secure a first-round bye, dependent on chaos in the Big 12 and ACC. They are 8-1, with its lone loss coming in September at Oregon 37-34. The remaining three games: San Jose State, Wyoming and Oregon State. If Boise State finishes out its season and is slated ahead of the ACC or Big 12 champion on Dec. 8, it will earn a first-round bye. The Broncos are already ahead of SMU, which is on track to make the ACC title game.

Committee can’t justify Miami, SMU separation

Miami dropped its first game of the season on Saturday at Georgia Tech, sputtering in a 28-23 loss in Atlanta. But the Hurricanes only dropped to No. 9 and would still secure a first-round bye if the playoffs started on Wednesday.

On the flip side, SMU was on the bye and it touts an 8-1 record and is first in the ACC. The Mustangs were on the bye last weekend and their only loss is to BYU, which is ranked No. 6. On3 asked selection committee chair Warde Manuel what the differentiator between Miami and SMU is.

“It’s a great question because both of the teams are very similar teams, and we obviously have factored in who they played, who they’ve beat throughout the season, and so we just felt that in looking at Miami and SMU that Miami – their offense is very dominant in terms of how they’ve been winning,” the Michigan athletic director said. “Haven’t been as consistent defensively. So is SMU. They’ve won very good – they were playing two quarterbacks at the beginning of the year. Great speed, a physical team. So we’ve been impressed by both.

“Just based on their body of work, the committee had the discussions, the feeling was that Miami was ahead of SMU in terms of their performance this year.”

Translation: Nothing is separating the two but Cam Ward is fun to watch. The Hurricanes can still play their way into the ACC title game and secure a first-round bye. There technically could be a tie for second with Clemson, but Miami would win out the tiebreaker with the win over Louisville being the differentiator.

Colorado still in driver’s seat

Iowa State fell out of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night, but Colorado is still in the driver’s seat to make the playoff. The Buffaloes are in second place in the Big 12 with three games remaining. If they win out, they’ll be in the conference title game with a CFP berth on the line.

Colorado is 5-1 in league play and hosts Utah this weekend before finishing the season with Kansas and Oklahoma State, which are a combined 10-18 on the season. Colorado is an 11.5-point favorite at home, according to FanDuel.

On3’s Ari Wasserman had the Buffaloes listed as the No. 4 seed in Sunday’s College Football Playoff Bubble Watch. ESPN’s FPI currently gives the Buffaloes a 24.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff.