Billy Napier’s last hope at Florida is a Hail Mary from QB DJ Lagway

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Just imagine the Florida fans who stuck by Billy Napier through two sub-.500 seasons and then swallowed hook, line and sinker the offseason talking points about a better roster that defied all available evidence. There were a lot of these people. They wanted to believe.

Now picture those people sneaking a peek at Napier’s press conference on a holiday only to hear Napier say this: “We’ve got to go to work on the football part. I think we’ve got to become a more consistent team and we have to execute better. If we can focus on those things and not necessarily what some guy in his basement is saying in rural central Florida on social media, then we got a chance to get better, right? I think that’s the key.”

If Miami 41, Florida 17 wasn’t the breaking point, that probably was.

After all this, how does he not know that we’re too close to sea level here to have basements?

OK, maybe that’s not what they said. And maybe they used more cuss words. But it probably didn’t matter because the thrashing by Miami was the breaking point. By Monday, nothing Napier could have said would have changed anything. The vast majority of the fanbase wanted him fired after Saturday, and if they want him double-fired after that line it doesn’t change anything from a practical standpoint.

Plus — and I say this as someone who has piled on Napier as much as anyone the past two-plus years — it wasn’t as bad in person as it came off on social media. That’s because those of us in the room heard the rest of the answer to that question, which was this:

“Sometimes we deserve criticism,” Napier said. “I have no excuses.”

Napier’s willingness to say that is one reason why everyone he’s worked with respects him deeply as a human being. It’s also why so many Florida fans gave him the benefit of the doubt until Saturday. They liked the guy. They wanted it to work.

It’s probably not going to work.

The Florida fans who still held out hope all offseason no longer respect Napier as a coach. That group, as a whole, is ready to move on to someone else in spite of the significant financial costs. Major donors have threatened to bail. Athletic director Scott Stricklin remains steadfast, but in the SEC, ADs typically don’t get to hire three football coaches. Perhaps Stricklin survives thanks to a leadership vacuum at the university following the recent resignation of president Ben Sasse. That decision would rest with interim president — and former president — Kent Fuchs.

At this point, it will take a miracle for Napier to survive. A schedule that still includes Texas A&M, UCF, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State feels impossible if the Florida team that played Miami plays in those games. 

It’s probably going to take a Hail Mary. Or, more appropriately, a Hail D.J.

DJ Lagway is the five-star quarterback Florida signed this offseason who made his collegiate debut in the fourth quarter of the loss to Miami. Lagway is the last thread of hope for the Napier era at Florida. He is the idea to which the fans have clung. Just wait until D.J. starts. That’s when everything will change. Napier and Stricklin could use the promise of Lagway as another plea for patience.

Now the idea becomes flesh and blood. Until now, Lagway has been Schrödinger’s recruit. As long as he stayed in the box, he could be either program savior or just another freshman QB.

Out of necessity, Napier probably will have to open the box this week against Samford.

Graham Mertz, the senior who was supposed to pilot Florida through this season, is in concussion protocol. Napier said Monday that he wouldn’t definitively answer injury questions until Wednesday, when Florida has to submit public injury reports due to a new requirement from the SEC. Asked about the health of Mertz and the readiness of Lagway, Napier said that even if that policy hadn’t changed, the nature of concussion protocol — measuring the affected player against his baseline measurements — means Florida won’t have solid answers on his status until later in the week anyway. So Lagway will practice with the ones and must prepare as if he’s starting.

Napier needs to hope Lagway is the second coming of Tim Tebow, because that is Napier’s only chance at this point. But even if Lagway is that good, the rest of Florida’s roster might not be good enough for that to matter. 

That’s what the Miami game showed, and the blame for that falls squarely on Napier. The Hurricanes, facing the same situation as Florida following the 2021 season, hired Mario Cristobal and — like Florida with Napier — devoted more resources than ever to resurrect the football program. Cristobal and Napier each attacked this goal aggressively through high school recruiting. But only Cristobal attacked it aggressively through the transfer portal.

I asked Napier on Monday if what he saw Saturday makes him re-evaluate his slow-play strategy in the portal. “I think there’s a number of factors that contribute to your ability and strategy in terms of how you build a roster, right?” Napier said. “We’ve got our fair share of success in the portal, as well. I think ultimately, specifically the quarterback I would say is the main difference maker. We’ve been in that situation before. We went and got Graham Mertz.”

The other QB to which Napier referred was Cam Ward, who came to Miami from Washington State and who threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns in The Swamp on Saturday. With all due respect to Mertz, who outplayed expectations last year after coming to Florida from Wisconsin, his recruitment and Ward’s recruitment were not anywhere near the same. Ward was the most sought after QB in the portal this offseason. The equivalent of getting Ward last offseason would have been getting Shedeur Sanders if Sanders had been on the open market and not following his father from Jackson State to Colorado. 

This applies to Lagway because the position group Florida needed to shore up through the portal this past offseason was offensive line, and the Gators’ most prominent portal addition in that group (former San Diego State tackle Brandon Crenshaw-Dixon) didn’t start against Miami on Saturday. The Gators had a lackluster line last year, lost a starter (guard Richie Leonard) to the portal and didn’t add a single new starter in an offseason where three-fifths of the Joe Moore Award-winning line at Washington hit the portal. Florida wasn’t in on any of them. A host of all-conference players from Group of 5 leagues hit the portal seeking more money, better competition or both. Florida signed Crenshaw-Dickson, whose biggest honor was preseason third-team All-Mountain West prior to last season.

Against the monsters that await, even a promising young QB will need some help up front. But Napier and his staff of thousands apparently didn’t think that was a priority.

They’ll probably wish they had when that line is the only thing standing between their Great Freshman Hope and unemployment.