When Florida's Billy Napier and Miami's Mario Cristobal finally collide, the loser will get wrecked

Billy Napier’s team finally plays Mario Cristobal’s team on Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, but the seeds for this spectacle were planted long ago.

Florida’s Napier and Miami’s Cristobal were hired eight days apart in 2021, five months into the most chaotic period of change their sport has ever seen. Each of their schools promised during the hiring process to devote more money than they ever had to football so the coaches could build organizational charts that would lead to dominance on the field. Their schools are rivals insomuch as they play in the same state and have combined for eight national titles since 1983, but they rarely see one another on the field anymore.

Previously, Napier and Cristobal spent four years together working as position coaches for the greatest college football coach who ever lived. Judging by their careers as head coaches, the pair took different lessons to heart but have yet to show that either understood Nick Saban’s secret weapon was his willingness to adapt. 

Napier and Cristobal have faced off multiple times on the recruiting trail. Most notably, their surrogates took part in the dumbest bidding war in the sport’s history. Only Napier wound up getting sued by Jaden Rashada, the quarterback both wanted at one point.

Napier and Cristobal have spent the better part of the past three years circling each other — getting judged against one another — without a chance to actually square off. That changes Saturday afternoon, when college football’s version of the Spider-Man meme will play out on national television.

And by Saturday night, a fanbase will be ready to bail on the losing coach.

It doesn’t actually matter which one loses. That’s why I’ve dubbed this the Pitchforks and Torches Bowl. Both fanbases are so convinced of their program’s superiority and of the other coach’s shortcomings that a loss for either is going to trigger a meltdown of epic proportions. And since college football has had overtime since 1996, we can be assured that one of them is going to lose.

Napier and Cristobal came to their schools promising essentially the same things. They would use those newly devoted resources to hire larger staffs than either school had previously employed. They would use those staffs to build rosters that could compete for national titles and to efficiently process information that would make those elite recruits better on gameday. They would instill process-oriented thinking. They would be tough on both lines of scrimmage. Essentially, they’d re-create Saban’s Alabama but with their own particular flavor. 

The difference is that Saban started 12-0 in his second season at Alabama and only got derailed by eventual national champ Florida in the SEC title game. By year two, it was clear he was an elite head coach and it was a matter of when, not if, he led Alabama to a national title. (He did it in year three and then won five more.)

Napier went 5-7 in year two at Florida. Cristobal went 7-6 in year two at Miami. Napier’s teams repeatedly sent 10 players out on the field goal block team. Cristobal didn’t order his quarterback to take a knee against Georgia Tech and the Hurricanes lost a fumble and then gave up a touchdown on a four-play, 75-yard drive that took 25 seconds. 

So far, the pair is best known for not living up to expectations. But each has kept hope alive in his own way.

Cristobal has orchestrated a more complete roster rebuild that mixes quality high school recruiting — especially at line-of-scrimmage positions — with winning recruiting battles in the transfer portal. In the class of 2023, Miami brought in edge rusher Reuben Bain and offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa. Both could be stars this season. This past offseason, Miami got a sought-after quarterback (Cam Ward, Washington State), a sought-after tailback (Damien Martinez, Oregon State) and a sought-after receiver (Sam Brown, Houston) from the transfer portal.

Napier and Florida haven’t won many transfer portal bidding wars, but they’ve found players who could help. Receiver Ricky Pearsall (Arizona State) became a first-rounder. Napier hopes Elijah Badger, another Tempe-to-Gainesville import, can make a similar impact alongside Eugene Wilson III, one of Napier’s biggest high school recruiting wins. Quarterback Graham Mertz, who transferred from Wisconsin before last season, gave the Gators a steady hand at that position.

Napier’s promise of Saban-esque recruiting seemed real in the heady months heading into the 2023 season. The Gators had a highly ranked 2024 class anchored by quarterback D.J. Lagway. But as the in-season losses mounted, so did the decommits. Lagway and five-star edge rusher L.J. McCray stuck, but six previously committed players ranked in the top 200 of the On3 Industry rankings flipped to other schools. That deflated the balloon, but hope remained in the form of one golden-armed player from Willis, Texas.

It is upon Lagway that Napier has staked his future. Florida fans haven’t been this excited about a quarterback signee since Tim Tebow in 2006, and the tantalizing promise of Lagway has kept some people faithful to Napier in spite of that 11-14 record at Florida.

The question is whether Napier can make it to the point where he gets to actually work with Lagway as QB1. If Cristobal loses this game, he’ll lose the faith of the fanbase. But Miami’s administration probably couldn’t afford to fire him even if it wanted to (which it does not and will not even if Miami loses). Napier’s position is far more tenuous. Even with the toughest schedule in America, it would be completely unacceptable to post a below-.500 record three consecutive seasons in a row at Florida. And though the Gators have mounted a whisper campaign all offseason attempting to heap even more blame on the roster left behind by fired coach Dan Mullen, this is 2024. The transfer portal and NIL exist. A coach should be able to flip a roster by year three. 

The Gators would have the money to make a move if necessary, but everyone from the top down hopes that isn’t the case. Napier is well-liked. He treats people well. Plus, Florida wants off the rollercoaster that has led to four different head coaches since Urban Meyer stepped down following the 2010 season. This is a group that wants to believe. But Napier has to earn that belief. So far, he hasn’t.

He beat eventual Pac-12 champ Utah in his Florida debut and then lost to Kentucky the following week. He beat Tennessee in The Swamp last season but then fell later at home to an Arkansas team that didn’t win a single other SEC game. At some point, the steps forward have to outnumber the steps back.

Saturday is an opportunity for Napier to take a huge step in either direction. Which will he choose?

The same goes for Cristobal. He has flipped his roster. From a body-type standpoint, this Miami team looks similar to Cristobal’s Oregon team that won the Pac-12 in 2019. The question is whether Ward can reach the level Justin Herbert reached that season.

Cristobal needs a signature win at Miami. He’s 0-2 so far against Florida State. His teams have yet to be remotely competitive in the ACC title race. That’s all supposed to change this year, but if some combination of the familiar game-management issues costs Miami a win in The Swamp — or worse, Miami just gets beaten handily — then Miami’s fanbase will lose faith no matter what fiscal reality says about Cristobal’s job security.

If this sounds awfully apocalyptic, it should. That’s how it’s going to feel on Saturday when the humidity pushes toward 100 percent and the sun beats down off The Swamp’s blazing orange walls — which will seem as if they’re about to close in on whatever millionaire coach loses this game.

Will that be the end for Napier or Cristobal? Of course not. Napier could lose Saturday and be forgiven if he beats Texas A&M two weeks later. Cristobal could lose and then rip off a run that puts Miami in the ACC title game. 

But perspective like that will have no place on a hot, sticky Sunshine State Saturday night. In that moment, it’s going to feel like the world ended for someone.