CBS Sports expert gives six-pack of college football predictions for Week 3

CBS Sports college football expert Tom Fornelli on Thursday released six picks against the spread ahead of Week 3 of the college football season, featuring SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 contests.

Last week, Fornelli went 5-1 overall, and he holds an 8-4 record to-date on the season.

No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) at No. 14 Florida

Fornelli, like most college football experts across the country, picked the Crimson Tide to cover the spread against No. 14 Florida. Alabama looks great so far, opening up 2-0 and starting the season off with a dominant showing over the Miami Hurricanes. Alabama is 2-0 against the spread, too.

“Yeah, you’re not going to catch me giving you any reason to fade Alabama in this matchup,” Fornelli wrote.

Ultimately, not only does Fornelli put his faith in Alabama’s offense, but he also believes that Florida’s offense simply can’t put up the scoring needed to cover — regardless of whether the Gators opt to start Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

Fornelli’s final score prediction: Alabama 38, Florida 17 | Alabama (-14.5)

No. 22 Auburn at No. 10 Penn State (-5.5)

Auburn-Penn State has the early makings of one of the top nonconference games of the season, but it’ll be hard to follow-up on Oregon’s upset over Ohio State. Unlike Oregon, however, Fornelli did not pick an upset in this game. Instead, he picked Penn State to cover the 5.5-point spread, at home, against an unproven Auburn team.

Auburn has scored 60 points in back-to-back weeks, but neither Akron or Alabama State comes close to the talent that a top-10 school like Penn State boasts. Further, as Fornelli mentions, Auburn quarterback Bo Nix has been a historically worse quarterback on the road than at home; not only is this his first road game of the season, but it happens to be against an excellent team at one of the loudest environments in college football.

Fornelli’s final score prediction: Penn State 27, Auburn 17 | Penn State (-5)

Michigan State (+6.5) at No. 24 Miami

Fornelli tabs this contest as his “lock of the week,” as he firmly believes Michigan State has no reason to be 6.5-point underdogs against the slumping Miami hurricanes. He labels this as one of those games where you place a bet simply because “you’ve watched the two teams playing in the game, and the lines put out don’t make a lick of sense.” Miami — so far — hangs onto a thread in the top-25, with a 1-1 record: one narrow, 25-23 win over Appalachian State, and one ugly, 44-13 game against Alabama, a season opener in which the Crimson Tide beat the brakes off the Hurricanes.

Miami has a weak resume, and a weak case to even remain in the top 25. Michigan State, by comparison, has looked good enough on both sides of the ball to make this a very close ballgame.

Fornelli’s final score prediction: Michigan State 28, Miami 27 | Michigan State (+6.5)

Tulsa at No. 9 Ohio State (-24.5)

Ohio State comes off a brutal loss to Oregon, when they hosted a Ducks team without its top-two defenders and still managed to drop the home contest. This loss sent Ohio State way down the rankings, and perhaps explains why they’re not favored by more than a mere three-and-a-half touchdowns against Tulsa, a team that’s played Ohio State once in 2016 and lost 48-3. Fornelli thinks the Buckeyes will win decisively.

“Tulsa should provide opportunities to smooth out both sides of the ball, and I don’t think the Buckeyes will be taking their foot off the gas if they get up big,” Fornelli writes. Ohio State will have to make this a blowout if they want to look as powerful as possible, despite having one loss on their resume.

Fornelli’s final score prediction: Ohio State 52, Tulsa 10 | Ohio State (-24.5)

Minnesota at Colorado

Colorado has one of the best rush defenses in football, as Fornelli points out, allowing just 2.51 yards per carry. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have a defensive success rate of 81.3% against the run, which has them tied for third nationally with San Diego State. On top of all this, Minnesota’s star running back Mohamed Ibrahim is out for the season after suffering an injury in the season opener against Ohio State, so it’ll be backup running backs going up against that stout defense.

However, the Buffaloes allowed 5.44 yards per carry last season, so Fornelli is not yet sold on the defense, which could be an early-season fluke. Colorado’s offense hasn’t really done much to solidify itself, and for those reasons, Fornelli picks Minnesota to cover.

Fornelli’s final score prediction: Colorado 24, Minnesota 23 (Minnesota +3)

Nevada at Kansas State

Fornelli said the Nevada at Kansas State game is his “quarterback mismatch of the week,” simply because Carson Strong, Nevada’s star quarterback, is far stronger under center than Will Howard, Kansas State’s backup quarterback. Howard is starting under center in replacement of Skylar Thompson, who also got hurt last season, and Strong projects as a potential first-round quarterback.

“I think it’s too big of a matchup advantage to ignore,” Fornelli said, citing the injury as the main reason why he doesn’t roll with Kansas State in this contest.

Fornelli’s final score prediction: Nevada 27, Kansas State 23 | Nevada (-2)