Friday Pick-Six: Conference Championship best bets for Washington-Oregon, Louisville-Florida State and more
Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour.
We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!).
The regular season is in the books, so all the bets this week revolve around the various Conference Championship games. I went 3-2 in Week 13, whiffing on Ohio State +3.5 against Michigan and getting brutally back-doored by LSU to spoil my Texas A&M +11.5 pick (Spoiler: The Tigers won by 12).
So I finished the regular season 35-28-2, and 6-7 on my upset specials. It’s Conference Championship Weekend, so let’s make some picks.
(All point spreads come from FanDuel).
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 5 Oregon (-9.5)
The Huskies ran the table in the regular season, winning three straight games over ranked teams to end the year. And yet, they’re hardly clicking on all cylinders, especially offensively.
I don’t know if Michael Penix Jr. is banged up or simply “off,” but he’s completing less than 60% of his passes since beating Oregon in mid-October. Meanwhile, the Ducks have been a buzzsaw for six weeks and are playing as well as any team in the country.
Bo Nix is gunning for the Heisman Trophy and Oregon has the best pass defense in the Pac-12. It’s hard to be good teams twice — much less one that’s playing as well as Oregon. With Dan Lanning’s team possibly needing style points to make the College Football Playoff, they cover the two-score spread.
PICK: Oregon -9.5
No. 19 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (-14.5)
The Longhorns finally hammered a team, blasting Texas Tech by 50 in a game they could’ve legitimately dropped over 70 if they didn’t settle for field goals or turn the ball over in the red zone. Like Oregon, Texas doesn’t just need to win Saturday, but do so impressively to give the selection committee little doubt it is among the best four teams in 2023.
Mike Gundy is more than capable of scheming up a game plan to score some points here, but the Pokes can’t just hand to ball to Ollie Gordon 30 times and hope to shorten the game — not against T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, who headline a Longhorns run defense that ranks No. 5 nationally (2.9 yards per carry) and has allowed just seven touchdowns all season.
There’s some backdoor concerns here, but Texas not only says goodbye to the Big 12 with its first title since 2009, but does so in runaway fashion.
PICK: Texas -14.5
No. 25 SMU vs. No. 17 Tulane (-3.5)
The Mustangs are one of the hotter teams in the country entering the AAC title game, but they’ll be without quarterback Preston Stone, who injured his leg in the regular-season finale against Navy.
While backup Kevin Jennings has played some during his redshirt freshman season, he’s not nearly on the level of Tulane’s Michael Pratt.
Willie Fritz has refused to engage with interested schools for his services, keeping all eyes on winning a second-straight ACC Championship before entertaining any openings (Hello, Houston!). The Green Wave are at home with Pratt, star tailback Makhi Hughes and a team that’s gotten healthier in the last two weeks.
PICK: Tulane -3.5
No. 15 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State (-2.5)
Most of the college football world seems to be rooting for Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals to engineer the slight upset so we don’t have to see a wounded Seminoles team without their starting quarterback in the College Football Playoff.
But even without Jordan Travis, this number seems a tad short for ‘Noles squad that still has star power all over the roster. Tate Rodemaker helped FSU rally to beat Louisville just last season, throwing a couple of touchdowns to help aid the comeback. Even with Rodemaker under center, FSU still has the better tailback, wideout options and defensive line.
Jared Verse returned to school to win the ACC and make the CFP. In a game that’s likely to be played in nasty conditions (cold and rainy), the All-American pass rusher, along with tailback Trey Benson, led the Seminoles to victory.
PICK: Florida State -2.5
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 18 Iowa (+21.5)
Is Iowa going to score in this game? That’s the real question because an upset might be more unbelievable than when Michigan lost to FCS App. State all those years ago.
The Hawkeyes’ over/under points total in this game is 6.5. They were held to just a field goal in this game in 2021, and Michigan has a better defense this season. Iowa ranks in the 120s (or worse) in scoring, yards per play and third downs. Deacon Hill ain’t threatening this Wolverines’ defense.
I would grab the under in this game (35), but with an ATS pick, it’s Michigan or nothing. The one fear is the Wolverines scoring a couple of quick touchdowns and then just sitting on the ball the rest of the night to avoid any injuries before the CFP.
PICK: Michigan -21.5
Upset Du Jour
Boise State vs. UNLV (+3)
Th Broncos have the best player this game in Mountain West Player of the Year Ashton Jeany, who had over 1,100 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in his sophomore season in Boise.
They’ve won three straight games to end the regular season to sneak into the title game — even despite firing head coach Andy Avalos in mid-November.
But UNLV is at home with a chance to cap its Cinderella season with the program’s first 10-win season since 1984 when the Rebels were a member of the Pacific Coast Athletic Conference. Barry Odom has done a tremendous job in his first year in Las Vegas, and while UNLV is susceptible against the run, the Rebels have the best 3rd down offense and defense in the Mountain West. That plus their ability to score touchdowns in the red zone (No. 1 in the Mountain West, too) is the difference.
PICK: UNLV +3