Friday Pick-Six: Week 11 best bets for Michigan-Penn State, Tennessee-Missouri, Miami-Florida State, more

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

It was a good week in the picks column, going 3-1-1. Ole Miss squandered away a big lead to hold on for a push against Texas A&M, but Oklahoma State, Alabama and Arizona all covered and won outright. 

USC had a chance at covering +3 against Washington, but Alex Grinch’s defense did what it always does. 

I did correctly nail my Upset Du Jour for the first time in three weeks by backing Georgia Tech on the road vs. Virginia. That proved to be easy money, as the Yellow Jackets hammered the Hoos.

After 10 weeks, I’m now at 25-22-3, and 5-5 on my upset specials. There are lots of interesting games this weekend, so let’s make some picks.

(All point spreads come from FanDuel).

No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State (+4.5)

The Nittany Lions don’t get to host the Wolverines in a nighttime White Out, which is a bummer, but the “Big Noon Saturday” kickoff on Fox should still provide an electric atmosphere in Happy Valley. 

The question is whether or not Drew Allar and James Franklin’s team is ready for primetime. They weren’t against Ohio State — and Michigan projects as a better team than the Buckeyes. 

The Wolverines are obviously dealing with all sorts of distractions, and Penn State is the first opponent with a pulse that they’ve faced all year. I have some questions about how good their ground game actually is, but Blake Corum (who leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 16) and Donovan Edwards ran all over a good Nittany Lions defense (over 400 yards, four touchdowns) in 2022.

I think we see another galvanized effort from Jim Harbaugh’s team. Ultimately, the Wolverines have the better quarterback, coach and overall team. 

PICK: Michigan -4.5

No. 13 Tennessee at No. 14 Missouri (+1.5)

The Vols have splattered the Tigers the last two years, with Josh Heupel’s offense hanging 60+ on Mizzou in both blowout wins. Barring a Joe Milton performance we haven’t seen this season, it’s hard to foresee another offensive explosion. Still, Tennessee will be healthier on the OL this week, and it will score some points against a Tigers defense that is improved but still dead-middle of the pack in the SEC (both yards per play and scoring). 

Eli Drinkwitz has done a great job exceeding expectations this season and I won’t be shocked to get this pick wrong, but I’m rolling with the Vols to win and cover based on the body blows theory (Mizzou is coming off an emotional, physical loss at Georgia) + the questionable status of star wideout Luther Burden + the fact Tennessee still has the possibility of playing for the SEC East title with a win.

PICK: Tennessee -1.5

Miami at No. 4 Florida State (-13.5)

The Hurricanes are actually a decent team in terms of a few advanced metrics and even basic stats like yards per play (Top 25 in both offense and defense), but they can’t score and they’re beat up on both sides of the ball. 

Tyler Van Dyke has played so poorly of late (in the last two games he’s averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt with five picks) that there’s legitimate uncertainty as to who starts at quarterback for Miami this weekend. Meanwhile, FSU is likely to see the return of star receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, both of who sat out the win over Pitt. 

This is a “let’s not overcomplicate things” pick. It’s a rivalry game, so screwy stuff can happen, but I’m rolling with the team with the better coach in Mike Norvell and quarterback Jordan Travis. 

PICK: Florida State -13.5

No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-8.5)

The Huskies are back at home after winning a track meet at USC last weekend — one in which it still covered the spread by two scores. Outside of the Arizona State game, Michael Penix Jr. has been unstoppable at home in Husky Stadium (four of five games with at least three touchdowns and over 300 yards). Utah is coming off a shellacking of ASU, but the Utes are a totally different team away from Rice-Eccles Stadium. 

They allow nearly twice as many points on the road (23) than at home (12.8), and they score less than a touchdown on the road, too. 

Washington’s defense is leaky enough to keep Utah in the game, but the Huskies (which are incentivized to score style points for Penix’s Heisman Trophy resume) add a late touchdown to cover the number.

PICK: Washington -8.5

Auburn at Arkansas (-2.5)

The Razorbacks showed some resiliency out of their bye week, upsetting Florida in Gainesville in an overtime comeback win. But they shouldn’t be laying close to a field goal against any Power 5 team with a pulse. 

Both Arkansas and Auburn have issues offensively, and they’re almost identical defensively in terms of yards per play allowed. 

The Hogs are playing hard for embattled coach Sam Pittman, but Auburn (at 5-4 with the Iron Bowl against Alabama on deck) is playing to make a bowl game in Year 1 under Hugh Freeze. In a coin-flip affair, that’s enough to tip the scales for me.

PICK: Auburn +2.5

Upset Du Jour

Maryland at Nebraska (+2.5)

The Cornhuskers snapped their three-game winning streak with an ugly 20-17 loss at Michigan State last weekend. Matt Rhule has squeezed every ounce of offense he can from a unit leaking oil due to a severe rash of injuries, no playmakers on the perimeter and poor QB play. 

But Nebraska’s defense is salty. Tony White’s 3-3-5 scheme is giving Big Ten offenses problems and it should be able to bottle up a Maryland offense that’s been just handing the football to its opponents the last few weeks. 

The Terps have lost four straight, and while both teams are a win away from bowl eligibility, one team is at least still showing fight — and wants to snap a seven-year postseason-less streak.

PICK: Nebraska +2.5