Friday Pick-Six: Week 13 best bets for Oregon State-Oregon, Iowa-Nebraska, Ohio State-Michigan

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

It’s the final regular-season Pick-Six, and after last weekend’s near sweep of the board, let’s keep the mojo going. I went 4-1 in Week 12, the lone whiff banking on JMU to take care of business at home against App. State. 

I also hit my third Upset Du Jour in four weeks, as All Hail! To David Braun, who was named Northwestern’s head coach and then went out and upset Purdue to clinch bowl eligibility for the Wildcats. 

So entering Week 13 — with games Thursday, Friday and Saturday — I sit at 32-26-2, and 6-6 on my upset specials. 

It’s Rivalry Week with all sorts of great games. So let’s make some picks. 

(All point spreads come from FanDuel).

No. 20 Iowa at Nebraska (-2.5)

The Cornhuskers have been stuck on five wins for a month, losing three straight games and now needing to beat rival Iowa to secure bowl eligibility in Matt Rhule’s first season. Nebraska is playing really sound defense (which is why DC Tony White is a potential head coaching candidate at San Diego State), but they can’t stop turning the ball over — no matter who is at QB. 

These are the worst two offenses in the Big Ten, with Iowa almost literally running out of players after suffering so many injuries. The Cornhuskers upset the Hawkeyes last season, and Iowa could have its eyes on next weekend’s Big Ten title game. But in a game with a total UNDER 27!!!!, I’ll hold my nose with Deacon Hill and the Hawkeyes and grab the points.  

PICK: Iowa +2.5

No. 11 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (-13.5)

The Ducks are manhandling teams, scoring at least 35 points in five straight games with Bo Nix putting up video game numbers only being topped by LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Oregon needs to beat the Beavers to clinch a spot in the championship game. 

But while many are on Jonathan Smith and Oregon State to cover the spread here, I’m taking a couple contrarian angles. 

Oregon is the better, more complete team and is in a revenge spot after coughing up a double-digit lead to Oregon State last season. Smith is having sway away rumors he’s headed to Michigan State, and the Ducks need style points to continue to impress the College Football Playoff committee. In the last Civil War, Oregon wins the battle going away.  

PICK: Oregon -13.5

Texas A&M at No. 14 LSU (-11.5)

The Aggies have an interim head coach and are in the midst of interviewing candidates to replace Jimbo Fisher, while Brian Kelly is doing all he can to push Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy. 

Also, rumors continue to swirl around the Aggies’ roster, with star players on both sides of the ball potentially eyeing the transfer portal. 

And yet, asking this LSU defense — which ranks only ahead of Vanderbilt in the SEC in yards per play, total defense, scoring defense and third down defense — to cover a two-score spread? No. 

A better LSU team lost outright to Texas A&M just last season. That won’t happen but give me the points. 

PICK: Texas A&M +11.5

No. 3 Ohio State at No. 2 Michigan (-3.5)

I have been steadfast that I believe Michigan is the better team than Ohio State all season, but as we finally arrive to “The Game,” I find myself liking a lot more about the other side right now. 

The Wolverines still have the better quarterback, even with J.J. McCarthy’s recent dip in play. I love their defensive line and nickel-back Mike Sainristil. Blake Corum finally gets to play in this game healthy, too. 

But there are real concerns about where Michigan is mentally as a team right now. Has the weight of ‘Us vs. Everybody’ finally started to tip in Everybody’s” scales? The Wolverines are also banged up along the offensive line and they won’t have Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines — which on the margins could make a difference if Sherrone Moore faces a difficult do-or-die decision. TreVeyon Henderson is healthy and Ryan Day really, really needs this game.

PICK: Ohio State +3.5

Washington State at No. 5 Washington (-16.5)

Welcome to NOT the last Apple Cup, as the two schools agreed to continue the rivalry through at least 2028.

The Huskies have beaten three ranked teams in a row and just climbed to No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings. Michael Penix Jr. is still vying for the Heisman Trophy but this is a big spread to cover in a rivalry game with one eye on the Pac-12 Championship next weekend. 

Washington State is (nominally) playing for a bowl berth after boat-racing Colorado next weekend. While I doubt Jake Dickert and the Cougars can outright upset Washington in Seattle, quarterback Cameron Ward is auditioning for his next Power 5 QB job (hello USC?) And is capable of causing some problems for a Huskies defense that played well a week ago in a monsoon but hasn’t been a strength most of the year. 

PICK: Wazzu +16.5

Upset Du Jour

Virginia Tech at Virgina (+3)

These two teams did not battle for the Commonwealth Cup last season after the tragic shooting that resulted in the death of three Cavaliers players. 

Back on the field in 2023, the Hokies are looking to win their sixth game and clinch a bowl berth in Year 2 under Brent Pry, while the Hoos are coming off an upset win over Duke and have one the most electric playmakers in the country in transfer wideout Malik Washington. 

Va. Tech has owned this series over the last two decades, losing just twice since 1998. These two teams are fairly evenly matched offensively, but the Hokies are by far the better defensive output (24 points per game vs. 32, which ranks last in the ACC). 

Still, the game is in Charlottesville, and it should be quite emotional with what happened a year ago. Washington is the best player in the game, too. Go Hoos.

PICK: Virginia