Friday Pick-Six: Week 2 best bets for Nebraska at Colorado, Texas at Alabama, Upset Du Jour

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

I got off to a shoulder-shrug 2-3 start in Week 1. I also handed out the over in LSU-Florida State, but we’re only tracking picks against the spread. Sigh. 

I also whiffed on my first Upset Du Jour, but we’re chasing long shots here!

I was dead wrong about Colorado and North Carolina. I cruised to easy covers with Washington and Tennessee. A pair of fourth-quarter touchdown runs by Alabama’s backup quarterbacks did in my MTSU +39.5 play. 

But it’s a new week, and there are some great games to choose from. How about more Coach Prime and Colorado? What’s the play in Texas at Alabama? A SicksCommittee Special. More.

Let’s dive in: (All point spreads come from FanDuel).

Nebraska at No. 22 Colorado (-2.5)

Ten days ago, Colorado was a touchdown underdog in look-ahead lines for this game, only to see the spread swing 10-points after Deion Sanders and the Buffs upset TCU as 21-point underdogs. Meanwhile, the nation also tuned in to watch Nebraska completely throw up on themselves again in the fourth quarter, losing on a last-second field goal to Minnesota.  The Cornhuskers are definitely going to try to muck-up this game. Quarterback Jeff Sims may carry the ball 20 times. The new clock rules could help shorten the snaps in this game for Nebraska, too. 

But Shedeur Sanders proved he’s a legit Power 5 quarterback. Travis Hunter is the headliner, naturally so, but Colorado has a bevy of other skill-talent. The Buffs are going to give up yards on the ground (ZERO TFLs in 88 plays vs. TCU), but I’m going to ride with Sanders over Sims. 

I don’t know about longterm, but for Week 2, I believe.

PICK: Colorado -2.5

No. 11 Texas at No. 3 Alabama (-7)

I understand the love for Texas. Urban Meyer called the Longhorns the most talented team in the country. Steve Sarkisian believes this is the best team he’s ever had. The Longhorns finally have NFL prospects along the lines of scrimmage. I don’t care that they played with their food for a half against Rice, either. Sarkisian definitely had his eyes (and plans) focused on this game. 

On the other side, Alabama enters the matchup with many still questioning Jalen Milroe at quarterback, an underwhelming group of playmakers on the perimeter and several starters banged up in the secondary. 

But I’m not betting against Nick Saban, who hasn’t lost a regular-season non-conference game since his first season with the Tide in 2007. Alabama was super sloppy (15 penalties for 100 yards) in this matchup a year ago. It couldn’t run the ball, either. Both areas get cleaned up Saturday, Milore makes a couple plays with his legs/on RPOs and the Tide’s defense harasses Quinn Ewers. 

PICK: Alabama -7

No. 12 Utah at Baylor (+7)

Let’s see: One team was down eight starters, had to play its third and fourth-string quarterbacks and still beat a SEC squad by double-digits. The other lost by double-digits as a 27-point favorite to a G5 team with a first-year head coach. 

Am I missing something here? Utah isn’t exactly a wagon without Cam Rising at quarterback — and he may play Saturday — but the Utes should have greater success running the ball against Baylor’s front than Florida’s. 

In the embarrassing loss to Texas State, the Bears looked soft in the middle and slow outside. They also lost starting QB Blake Shapen. It might be a bit clunky early, but I think the Utes, with 10 days to prepare, grind the game away in the fourth quarter.

PICK: Utah (-7)

Memphis at Arkansas State (+21.5)

This is one that I think the @SickosCommittee could get behind. It’s just been one week, but Arkansas State might be the worst FCS team in the country in 2023. 

Butch Jones looked like he had been hit with the meanest ‘Yo Mama’ joke watching his Red Wolves get completely vaporized 73-0 by Oklahoma in the opener. ASU allowed 7.83 yards per play, 11 of 13 conversions on third downs and they didn’t get a single stop in nine red zone chances. 

I don’t think Ryan Satterfield’s Tigers team is all that great, but like Oklahoma, they can throw the ball with Seth Heingan at QB (334 yards in Week 1). This won’t be a weekly play, but on principle, until I see Arkansas State stay within 4-5 touchdowns, much-less three? I’m fading the Red Wolves until otherwise. 

PICK: Memphis -21.5

Oklahoma State at Arizona State (+3.5)

Kenny Dillingham won his head coaching debut at his alma mater, but a three-point win over a mid-tier FCS program, albeit in terrible weather conditions, doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in his first game against a P5 school.

Sun Devils freshman quarterback Jayden Rashada did show some promise in his first-career start, but now he’ll face Oklahoma State’s 3-3-5 defense — a scheme he likely hasn’t faced much at all during his career.

The Pokes weren’t overly inspiring against Central Arkansas in a 27-13 win, and I’m still not sure Mike Gundy knows who he wants to ride with at QB (the Cowboys played three in the opener). And yet, I think Oklahoma State can cover a field goal spread against a makeshift Arizona State squad still trying to find some cohesiveness with more than 50 new players on the roster and a brand new coaching staff. 

PICK: Oklahoma State -3.5

Upset Du Jour

No. 19 Wisconsin at Washington State (+6.5)

A year ago, the Cougars waltzed into Madison and upset the then-No. 19 Badgers, kickstarting the decision for Wisconsin to fire head coach Paul Chryst.

I’m high on Luke Fickell’s future with the Badgers, and it was notable in Week 1 to see Phil Longo hit pause on the ‘Dairy Raid’ transition and lean into the Badgers’ two-headed tandem at tailback (Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen combined for 300 rushing yards and four scores). Tanner Mordecai threw for less than 200 yards, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt with two picks. 

Wisconsin certainly has revenge on its mind after last season’s loss, but Washington State QB Cam Ward looked much more comfortable to start his second season, torching Colorado State for 490 yards of total offense and four total touchdowns. 

I think the Cougs cover, but let’s get bolder than that. They beat the Badgers for the second-straight year — this time on Pac-12 After Dark. 

PICK: Washington State