Friday Pick-Six: Week 3 best bets in Tennessee-Florida, the Backyard Brawl, K-State-Mizzou, more

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

After a 2-3 start in Week 1, I bounced back strong last weekend, going 3-1-1 and nailing my Upset Du Jour (Washington State over Wisconsin). 

Now, I can’t brag too much because I was DEAD WRONG about Texas at Alabama. On the season, I’m floating just above .500 at 5-4-1.  Week 3 isn’t the juiciest slate, but there are still good games to bet. 

Let’s dive in: (All point spreads come from FanDuel).

No. 11 Tennessee at Florida (+6.5)

The Gators are an underdog at home against the Vols for just the second time in school history, but they also have history on their side — Tennessee hasn’t won in the Swamp since 2003. 

The SEC East (very likely) isn’t on the line Saturday night, but the stakes remain large for both head coaches in the matchup. Can Josh Heupel continue to prove Tennessee is truly back? Or will Billy Napier get his first signature win at Florida?

Even with the Vols’ thirst for tempo, I foresee an ugly, low-possession game. For all the talk about Joe Milton and Graham Mertz, both defenses in this game have juice. I prefer the under, but since we’re stick to spreads here, I’m going to trust both my eyes and the data. The Swamp will play a factor, but Tennessee squeaks bye with a win and cover. 

PICK: Tennessee -6.5

Kansas State at Missouri (+3.5)

I don’t understand the line movement in this game. The Tigers have continued to gain steam in the market after this opened at K-State -6. What am I missing?

The Wildcats have the better coach. The better quarterback. The better offensive line. And as good of a defense. A (four-touchdown) win over Troy might not mean as much in 2023 vs. 2022, but it’s still a much better win than Mizzou having to hang on to beat a bad MTSU squad.

I like the Tigers’ defense (No. 2 in the SEC in yards per play allowed), but unless Eli Drinkwitz & Co., have been really saving the bag the first two weeks, there’s little to be optimistic about offensively. Add in the fact that Drink seems allergic to going for it on 4th-and-short — in two games, Mizzou has punted five times on 4th-and-2 or less — I’d ride the reigning Big 12 Champs to win on the road.

PICK: Kansas State -3.5

Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-1)

The Backyard Brawl: In Morgantown under the lights with two embattled coaches — one who is looking to save his job and the other who just lost to a rebuilding Cincy team at home? Sign me up! 

Neal Brown believes the Mountaineers are better than most expect (see: Picked to finish last in the Big 12), and while his team is slightly favored, a win against WVU’s biggest rival would go a long way in quieting his critics. 

Meanwhile, Pat Narduzzi might’ve whiffed on a transfer portal QB for the second straight cycle, as Boston College transfer Phil Jurkoevec was awful against the Bearcats (10 of 32 for 179 yards). More concerning is Pitt’s OL and DLs don’t seem up to their usual snuff. The Mountaineers do have a better OL and their defense, though it might still be a sieve against offenses with a pulse, holds up enough to deliver Brown a marquee win.

PICK: West Virginia -1

No. 7 Penn State at Illinois (+14.5)

I came into the season fairly bullish on Illinois avoiding a regression-year after losing so much talent to the NFL, and I know it’s just two games, but I’d like a mulligan on that. 

The Fighting Illini needed a game-winning field goal to beat Toledo and then got straight dog-walked by Kansas last weekend. I love Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks’ offense, and they rushed for 262 yards. And now Illinois faces Drew Allar, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. 

It will be Allar’s first road start, but if the Nittany Lions are a true national championship contender in 2023, they take that rushing attack and aggressive defense and bully Illinois to cover the number.

PICK: Penn State -14.5

Iowa State at Ohio (+3.5)

I’m not dumb enough to say, “Wrong team favored.” But maybe?

With the return of senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke, Ohio upset FAU on the road last weekend — and that was with Rourke was bad (18 of 29 for 203 yards, one touchdown and two picks) still recovering from an injury he suffered in the opener against San Diego State. The Bobcats play solid defense and I expect Rourke to look more like he did in 2022 (3,300 yards, 25 touchdowns to four picks) with his sea-legs back under him. 

The Cyclones are going to be tough to score against, but they can’t muster much of anything offensively, either. They’re averaging just 4.5 yards per play and 270 yards per game. I’ll take the hook and at least see a solid MAC team cover at home. 

PICK: Ohio +3.5

Upset Du Jour

Syracuse at Purdue (+2.5)

Ryan Walters got his first career win as a head coach last weekend, upsetting Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Transfer quarterback Hudson Card has been decent (502 yards, 63% completion, two touchdowns and no picks), but more impressively was the Boilermakers’ defensive line against the Hokies. 

They allowed just 11 yards rushing on 19 attempts and recorded three sacks, too. Syracuse will absolutely be a stiffer test for Purdue. The Orange’s 3-3-5 defense has a tendency to frustrate opponents who don’t see that system often, and senior quarterback Garrett Schrader has lit up some bad defenses (six total touchdowns, 10.1 yards per attempt) to start 2023. Still, I’ll take the Boilermakers to play spoiler at home. 

PICK: Purdue