Friday Pick-Six: Week 5 best bets in Notre Dame-Duke, LSU-Ole Miss, Louisville-NC State, more

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

A 2-2-1 week for me on college football’s 2023 Christmas. I nailed Alabama and Oregon, whiffed badly on Arkansas-LSU and just missed the number on UCLA-Utah.

Notre Dame couldn’t get the stop late, giving me a push instead of a win. I actually thought I might get home anyway because there was ZERO REASON for Ryan Day to have Ohio State attempt the PAT, when a potential blocked kick could’ve tied the game. But alas, for the season, I now stand at 10-8-2.

My Upset Du Jour is 2-2 now at least, with Washington State delivering me both Ws this season. Go Cougs!

This week’s slate isn’t quite as juicy as Week 4, but I see some bounce-back opportunities for several teams. 

Let’s make some picks. (All point spreads come from FanDuel).

No. 10 Utah at No. 19 Oregon State (-3.5)

I faded the Oregon State buzz last weekend, but the Beavers look primed for a rebound at home on a short week in Corvallis. 

Unlike Wazzu, Utah doesn’t have the quarterback (more Cam Rising uncertainty) or receivers (they’re banged up there also) to mess with OSU’s defense. The Utes are fantastic defensively, but they’re essentially 2021 Iowa — and at some point, the lack of offensive output (last in the Pac-12 in passing, 11th in scoring) is going to catch up with them. 

Utah isn’t the same team away from Rice-Eccoles stadium, either.

PICK: Oregon State -3.5

Louisville at NC State (+3.5)

The Wolfpack barely beat Virginia last weekend — and the Cavs might be the worst Power 5 team in the country this fall. The early returns of the Robert Anae–Brennan Armstrong reunion have not been promising and NC State has suffered key injuries at OL and safety. 

And yet! 

NC State’s defense is still solid and playing at Carter-Finley Stadium — especially on a short week at night — is tough. Louisville has been fantastic offensively with Jake Plummer and Jamari Thrash, but the Cards struggled in their lone “road” game against Indiana. I don’t know if Dave Doeren’s team pulls off the upset but they cover the number. 

PICK: NC State +3.5 

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 17 Duke (+5.5)

College GameDay is in Durham! Mike Elko is the hottest head coaching candidate in the country! The Blue Devils have their highest ranking in 29 years! 

Well, speaking of 29: The Irish have won 29 straight games against ACC opponents. Marcus Freeman and his staff screwed up at the end of the Ohio State game, but Notre Dame still had a fantastic game plan against the Buckeyes. 

Unlike Clemson, they won’t screw up in the red zone with Sam Hartman and Audric Estime. Irish cover and play spoiler to Duke’s primetime showcase. 

PICK: Notre Dame -5.5

Clemson at Syracuse (+6.5)

The Orange are 4-0 in non-conference play for the first time since 1972, and while Dino Babers’ teams have played the Tigers tough in recent years, they enter this matchup in a tough spot. 

Syracuse lost its All-ACC playmaker Oronde Gadsden for the season, and now it must face an angry Clemson defense, which allowed just 21 points in regulation to Florida State’s high-flying offense. 

I don’t see Dabo Swinney going 0-3 to start ACC play in 2023, and I’m skeptical Orange quarterback Garrett Schrader can single-handedly keep ‘Cuse in the game with legs like he did against Purdue and Army. 

PICK: Clemson -6.5

No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss (+2.5)

The Rebels just got decleated in the second half at Alabama and now must tangle with the best offense in the SEC. Lane Kiffin doesn’t beat good teams, and while I don’t think Brian Kelly’s team is a world-beater in 2023, they’re better than Ole Miss. 

Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabors, Brian Thomas and the boys should find plenty of room to roam against a Rebels secondary that’s just so-so. 

The one potential concern for LSU? It’s run defense, which ranks 99th nationally. A year ago that would’ve been really problematic going up against Quinshon Judkins and Ole Miss (No. 1 rush attack in the SEC in 2022), but Judkins doesn’t have a game over 60 yards all season after leading the SEC in rushing as a freshman. 

PICK: LSU -2.5

Upset Du Jour

Cincinnati at BYU (+1.5)

Both teams lost their Big 12 debuts last weekend, and now the Cougars are catching points at home on a Friday night against a Cincy team that can’t score?

The Bearcats’ defensive line is legitimately good, but quarterback Emory Jones is not. They won at Pitt earlier this season, but they’ve lost two straight at home and suffered some key injuries in the secondary. 

Kedon Slovis won’t do anything flashy but he’s good enough to deliver BYU its first conference win. 

PICK: BYU