Friday Pick-Six: Week 6 best bets for Oklahoma-Texas, LSU-Missouri, Notre Dame-Louisville and Upset Du Jour

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

If I could stop betting on LSU I would’ve had a perfect week. Once again, #GEAUXTIGERS let me down in a shootout loss at Ole Miss, but I nailed my other four best bets and hit on my second-straight Upset Du Jour. 

Overall, I stand at 14-9-2, and 3-2 on my upset specials. This week’s slate has lots of interesting matchups that could loom large two months from now. 

Let’s make some picks. (All point spreads come from FanDuel).

No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas (-5.5)

I’m on record predicting Texas to go undefeated in the regular season, so it’s Longhorns or bust for me in this game. 

And I’m riding with Steve Sarkisian and the Burnt Orange boys. I don’t know if the Sooners, who definitely are much better in Year 2 under Brent Venables, are a paper tiger or not, but I know Texas is legit. 

Both teams have solid-to-good defenses and good-to-great quarterbacks, but Texas has the advantage along the lines of scrimmage — both sides — and can actually run the ball. Red zone offense is a concern, but Texas wins Battle 1 (there will be a rematch) by a touchdown. 

PICK: Texas -5.5

No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri (+4.5)

With LSU’s defense and both teams’ firepower, this is an easy OVER pick, but we only bet spreads in this space (that may change next season, TBD!).

Jayden Daniels has made a sizable leap in his second season at LSU (19 total touchdowns to just two picks) and yet it’s been overshadowed by the Tigers’ abysmal defensive showings. 

On the other side, Mizzou has received great QB play from Brady Cook the last three weeks (three straight 300+ yard games) and Luther Burden III has emerged as perhaps the No. 1 wideout in the nation. This is a big chance for Eli Drinkwitz to snag the most signature win of his career at Mizzou.

Can he? Will he? I think the Tigers from Columbia at least cover the number. 

PICK: Mizzou +4.5

Maryland at No. 4 Ohio State (-19.5)

The Buckeyes enjoyed an idle date after going to Notre Dame and holding on to beat the Irish for one of (if not the) best win of the 2023 season. 

Maryland is 5-0 and a fringe Top 25 team, but as well as quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has played (he leads the Big Ten in passing yards, touchdowns and explosive throws), the Terps have beat up on a bunch of bad teams (Indiana, Michigan State and Virginia). 

While this game was close for four quarters last year, I think Ohio State’s offense will find a little gas this weekend and cooks the Terps.  

PICK: Ohio State -19.5

No. 13 Washington State at UCLA(-3.5)

This is one of those odd instances where the team that doesn’t have the number in front of its name is actually the favorite. The Cougars are riding high at 4-0, fresh off a upset over Oregon State and bye week spent with alumni feuding with ESPN, and yet, they’re underdogs on the road against Chip Kelly and the Bruins. 

UCLA is also coming off an idle date after losing 14-7 at Utah, where 5-star freshman quarterback Dante Moore had a dreadful game.

Back at the Rose Bowl and backed by the best (and most improved) defense in the Pac-12, I see UCLA bouncing back and handling business against Cameron Ward and Wazzu. 

PICK: UCLA -3.5

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville  (+6.5)

The Irish went on the road at Duke last weekend and covered a similar spread against a better team.

The Cardinals are 5-0, but they barely beat a so-so NC State team last Friday, and outside of an outlier five touchdown performance against Boston College, quarterback Jack Plummer has a 6-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Notre Dame has the No. 4 pass defense in the nation and it gets back two of its top receivers who were out in the win against the Blue Devils.

It’s a third-straight primetime spot for the Irish, and while USC is on deck, they’re they better, more complete team. Sam Hartman & Co., get it done on the road again.

PICK: Notre Dame -6.5

Upset Du Jour 

TCU at Iowa State (+6.5)

Both Big 12 teams stink, but one has more skunk than the other — and yet I’m willing to pinch my nose and take the Cyclones at home against a Horned Frogs bunched that has totally underwhelmed this fall! 

Iowa State was in a game with Oklahoma (21-20) before getting housed the last two quarters, but TCU doesn’t have that separation ability in 2023. 

Cyclones freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has shown a little something and hopefully that’s enough! 

PICK: Iowa State