Friday Pick-Six: Week 9 best bets for Oregon-Utah, Oklahoma-Kansas, Colorado-UCLA, more
Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour.
We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)
Most are screaming, “FADE” after my picks resembled Alex Grinch’s USC’s no-show defense the last two seasons. Talk about embarrassing.
I stupidly backed the Trojans against Utah. Plus, Penn State still isn’t ready for primetime and Clemson coughed up a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter to a backup freshman quarterback making his first career start. In all, a 1-4 showing and my Upset Du Jour pick was derailed by a horrible season-ending injury to Miami (OH) quarterback Brett Gabbert late in the third quarter in the loss to Toledo.
Ugly stuff.
After eight weeks, I’m now at .500, going 19-19-2, and 4-4 on my upset specials. Let’s see if I can get back on track in Week 9.
(All point spreads come from FanDuel).
No. 7 Oregon at No. 13 Utah (+6.5)
The Utes have won 29 of 30 at Rice-Eccoles Stadium — perhaps the greatest home field advantage in all of college football in the last few seasons.
They’ve had a couple get-right games offensively facing Cal and USC, settling on quarterback Bryson Barnes and force-feeding two-way safety Sione Vaki.
And yet, I’m willing to throw my face in the fire here. I trust in the Ducks. I think their defense should bottle up Utah’s ground game and Bo Nix, Bucky Irving & Co., can do enough to cover less than a touchdown spread in what’s a College Football Playoff elimination game for the two programs.
PICK: Oregon -6.5
No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas (+9.5)
The Sooners couldn’t put away UCF last weekend — a Knights team (albeit mostly without starting QB John Rhys Plumlee) that got spanked by the Jayhawks 51-22. Kansas is also 4-0 at home and coming off a bye week.
But while Jason Bean has been a serviceable backup QB for the Jayhawks in recent weeks, Kansas’ defense is still awful (No. 100 nationally).
They won’t stop Dillion Gabriel and the Sooners’ offense, and they’ve typically struggled against the big boys of the Big 12 who simply have better athletes across the board. I think Danny Stutsman and OU’s defense has as bounce-back performance and the Sooners take care of business on the road.
PICK: Oklahoma -9.5
No. 20 Duke at No. 18 Louisville (-4)
This game looked a lot more interesting a couple of weeks ago when the Cardinals were undefeated and Riley Leonard wasn’t battling a serious ankle injury. Still, it’s a game with major ACC standings stakes and it’s hard not to lean toward Jeff Brohm and the boys coming off a bye week.
While Leonard was taking shots against Florida State, Louisville was busy prepping for Duke. Mike Elko is a fantastic coach, but he seemed to put a lot of eggs in the basket to beat the Seminoles last weekend. Is Riley good to go? Does he trust backup Henry Belin to pass at all?
There’s enough uncertainty here that I’m rolling with the Cardinals to bottle up the worst passing offense in the ACC this season and move on to 7-1 with a cover.
PICK: Louisville -4
Colorado at No. 23 UCLA (-17)
The Buffs are still smarting over their devastating choke job against Stanford two weeks ago, but this is a terrible matchup for Deion Sanders’ team. Shedeur Sanders holds onto the ball longer than almost any QB in the country and Colorado also struggles in pass protection. On the flip side, UCLA ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12 in yards per play and takeaways, No. 2 in havoc, sacks and tackles for loss.
Regardless of who Chip Kelly turns to at QB, the Bruins are running the ball down opponents’ throats with transfer tailback Carson Steele and sophomore TJ Harden — and the Buffs struggle to stop the run (95th nationally in yards per carry).
It’s a big number, but with the OL woes and lack of defensive depth, I think Coach Prime takes another tough L this weekend.
PICK: UCLA -17
No. 11 Oregon State at Arizona (+3.5)
Could we be in store for more Pac-12 After Dark madness? Last weekend, Arizona State nearly upset a Top 5 Washington team, and we could be in store for a similar “hold onto your butts” game late Saturday night in Tuscan.
On paper, the Beavers have a favorable schedule (Arizona, Stanford and Colorado) to start out 9-1 and position themselves to truly contend for a Pac-12 championship and an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. But they have to survive a tricky road test against a Wildcats team that put scares into Mississippi State, Washington and USC, and just whipped Washington State in Pullman.
If Jedd Fisch sticks with Noah Fifita at quarterback, I think the ‘Cats cover and perhaps even pull off the upset outright.
PICK: Arizona +3.5
Upset Du Jour
Wyoming (+5.5) at Boise State
Boise State is 3-4 and back on the blue turf after a much-needed bye week. Andy Avalos finds himself amid some midseason hot seat boards and really needs to win this game.
Well, cue up Lee Corso’s ‘Not so fast my friend’ meme. Wyoming is also coming off an idle date and they’ve been the much better, more consistent team through the first seven games. The Cowboys are 5-2 — with the losses coming to a Top 10 Texas team and undefeated Air Force in comeback defeat.
Not only do they cover the number, but head coach Craig Bohl leads Wyoming to an outright win.