From worst to first: Ranking the best 2022 Year 2 coaching jobs in college football

Earlier this week, I released my grades for a star-studded group of Power 5 coaches who just completed their first season at a new school. 

But sometimes it takes more than 12 months for a new coach to really sink his footprint into a program. 

After a full recruiting cycle, another year to mine the transfer portal and more time to implement a culture and identity, how a team performs in Year 2 says even more about a coach’s prospects at a program. 

While the 2021 coaching carousel wasn’t nearly as crazy as last year’s cycle, almost every hire looks even better two seasons later.

Bryan Harsin is the lone outlier here, as he’s the only Year 2 coach who is out of a job. 

Every other school with a Year 2 coach is quite happy with their AD’s decision. 

Texas finished a frustrating 8-4 this fall, but Steve Sarkisian also landed 5-star quarterback Archie Manning and the nation’s No. 4 recruiting classes.  

Clark Lea and Jedd Fisch both flirted with bowl eligibility in their second seasons. Shane Beamer ended the season with two straight Top 10 upsets. Bret Bielema nearly won a division title at Illinois.  

Josh Heupel had Tennessee ranked No. 1 in the country this fall. 

It’s a pretty remarkable hit rate. 

So while we know Harsin brings up the rear, what would a ranking — from worst to first — of the best Year 2 coaching performances look like?

Bryan Harsin, Auburn

For more than a year, Auburn essentially treated Bryan Harsin like the kid in Toy Story who tortures Woody with a magnifying glass. It was wholly unfair to Harsin. 

But setting aside all the ugly and unfounded rumors surrounding Harsin and his family, the former Boise State head coach did an awful job at one of the premiere programs in the country. 

Harsin lost five straight games to end a disappointing Year 1, and things only got worse this fall. After a pair of victories over cupcakes — including a way-too-close for comfort 24-16 win against San Jose State — the Tigers lost 6-of-7, with their lone win a Yakety Sax overtime victory against Missouri. 

Harsin was poor recruiter (Auburn wasted a historic set of prospects from the state of Alabama in 2022), motivator and leader. It said a lot that the second he was gone the Tigers suddenly started playing inspired and united.  

Steve Sarkisian, Texas

Texas finished the regular season 8-4, and for a team that (mostly) started a freshman quarterback and multiple freshmen offensive linemen, some might think, “Not bad.”

But under Sarkisian, the Longhorns have a propensity to cough up wins. It happened three different times in 2022, losing second-half leads to Alabama, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. While TCU had all the magic this fall, Texas was probably the “scariest” team in the Big 12, but they just couldn’t put it all together for four quarters every Saturday. 

Still, the arrow is trending up in Austin. Sarkisian’s staff has the Longhorns playing sounder defense, and Texas’ OL should be among the best nationally in 2023. While Quinn Ewers is likely the starting quarterback next fall, Sarkisian just capped Year 2 by landing a guy named Arch Manning — ever heard of him? — and the nation’s No. 3 recruiting class.

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt

The Commodores exceeded their preseason win total — 2.5 — by the middle of September, starting the year 3-1. While October was a struggle, Lea’s team didn’t fold down the stretch and played competitive football the last month of the season.

Vanderbilt nearly upset South Carolina, and then it did stun Kentucky in Lexington and Florida at home in consecutive weeks, snapping a 26-game SEC losing streak. 

The entire season was a strong sign of progress for Lea and the ‘Dores. He told On3 in the spring that “there’s no microwave to accelerate the process,” and while true, Lea’s identity and team-building is starting to take shape. 

He has a quarterback in freshman AJ Swann (10 touchdowns to two interceptions) and a nice collection of playmakers, now Lea, the former Notre Dame DC, needs to solve Vandy’s defense woes if the program is going to continue its momentum into 2023. 

Jedd Fisch, Arizona 

The Wildcats narrowly missed a bowl game in 2022, but their season ended with good vibes as they won the Territorial Cup against Arizona State for the first time in six years. 

Arizona won five games a year removed from a 1-11 season — as many victories as the program had the previous three seasons combined. Fisch was a hire that was somewhat panned at the time, but the former New England Patriots assistant has engineered a turnaround in Tucson many didn’t think was possible. 

The Cats upset No. 12 UCLA and were competitive against Washington and USC. Their offense, led by sophomore quarterback Jayden de Laura (25 touchdowns, 13 picks, 8.5 yards per attempt), was one of the more fun units in the Pac-12. 

Fisch, a well-traveled OC, produced an offense that averaged 30.8 points per game and ranked No. 3 in the conference in passing. The Wildcats had a pair of 1,000 yards wideouts in Dorian Singer and Jacob Cowing, plus a freshman who caught 39 balls and eight touchdowns in Tetairoa McMillan. 

Fisch still needs to fix Arizona’s defense (next-to-last in the Pac-12 in 2022), so he aggressively targeted the transfer portal this December landing former 5-star Oregon linebacker Justin Flowe, former 4-star UCLA defensive lineman Tyler Manoa, former 4-star Georgia defensive end Bill Norton and former Cal linebacker Orin Patu. 

Shane Beamer, South Carolina 

Although there are some odd vibes around South Carolina right now, 2022 was legitimately a banner year for the Gamecocks in Shane Beamer’s second season. 

The former OU special teams coordinator delivered a proof of concept in Year 1 — culture, team unity and toughness — used last season’s unexpected momentum (7-6 with a win in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl) to raid the transfer portal to look to climb another rung on the SEC ladder this fall. 

It wasn’t always pretty for Carolina, but in a rollercoaster year, the ’Cocks finished as the No. 3 team in the SEC East with wins over Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vandy and Tennessee. They played awesome special teams, decent defense and scored just enough before a 94-point barrage the last two weeks of the season. 

South Carolina had some ugly losses (namely Georgia, Missouri and Florida), only to cap the year with two of the biggest wins in the entire country — back-to-back Top 10 upsets over the Vols and Clemson. Beamer ruined both programs’ playoff hopes and just signed the No. 16 recruiting class. 

If he’s right about his latest OC hire, then South Carolina could make another incremental step in 2023. 

Lance Leipold, Kansas

The Jayhawks went 6-6 in Lance Leipold’s second season in Lawrence. Only .500 you say? This is Kansas we’re talking about. Since joining the Big 12 in 1996, the Jayhawks have had more head coaches (eight) than even five-win seasons (seven). 

Leipold took over a dysfunctional program that didn’t know anything but losing. He didn’t get the job until April of his first season. Yet some 18+ months later, Kansas has snapped all sorts of embarrassing streaks and is going bowling for the first time in 15 years. 

If not for Sonny Dykes at TCU, Leipold would’ve been a prime candidate for National Coach of the Year in 2022. 

The Jayhawks started the season 5-0, with ESPN’s College GameDay coming to town for the first time in school history. They were ranked for the first time since 2009. 

The wheels fell off a bit after quarterback Jalon Daniels got hurt, but a midseason upset over No. 18 Oklahoma State got KU to six wins. Kansas will never be a Big 12 contender, but under Leipold, a former six-time Division III national champion head coach, the program no longer looks like a guaranteed bottom-feeder.  

Bret Bielema, Illinois 

Illinois recently handed Bret Bielema a raise and a six-year contract extension after he led the Fighting Illini to their best season since 2007. 

They opened the 2022 season 7-1, with dominant wins over Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska. Illinois lost three straight one-score games in November, squandering a Big Ten West title, but it finished the regular season on a high note by thumping rival Northwestern. 

Bielema certainly has imprinted Illinois with his identity, turning the Illini into the Big Ten’s boa constrictor. The Fighting Illini, under the leadership of now-Purdue head coach Ryan Walters, had the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.3 points per game allowed). They finished No. 2 in the country in yards per play allowed. 

After a 5-7 Year 1, Bielema made a change at OC, and the move to hand the offense to Barry Lunney Jr. produced better production in a still-run heavy but RPO-centered scheme. Illinois got better play from the QB position, and they leaned on workhorse tailback Chase Brown, who finished No. 3 nationally in rushing with 1,643 yards. 

Bielema and his staff have done a great job developing talent in Champaign, with a trio of players (Brown, corner Devon Witherspoon and defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton) earning multiple All-American honors and 19 Illini netting All-Big Ten selections, the most in school history. 

Josh Heupel, Tennessee 

The former Oklahoma quarterback wasn’t Tennessee’s first choice when the Vols fired Jeremy Pruitt, but AD Danny White, who was teamed up with Josh Heupel at UCF, sure looks like he got the hire right. 

Following an encouraging 7-5 season in 2021 where Tennessee teased its potential as an offensive dynamo, the Vols put on a true laser show in 2022. 

Heupel’s fun ‘Veer ’n Shoot’ scheme produced a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Hendon Hooker and the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense averaging 47.3 points per game. 

The Vols dropped a 50-burger in six games this fall, as Tennessee won 10 games in the regular season for the first time in 19 years. 

Thanks to Hooker, the emergence of wideout Jaylin Hyatt and a veteran OL, the Vols vastly exceeded preseason expectations and were in position to grab a spot in the College Football Playoff had they not choked away their opportunity in a blowout loss at South Carolina. 

Still, Heupel delivered a cathartic season Vols fans will remember forever with a blowout win at LSU, beating Florida for just the second time in 18 years and a stunning upset over No. 1 Alabama — leading Tennessee to be the top-ranked team in the country for the first time since 1998.